Variability in ocean currents, temperature and salinity drive dynamic sea level (DSL) variability on the Northwest European Shelf (NWES). It is dominated by mass variations, with steric signals relatively small. A mechanistic explanation of how ocean dynamics relates to the mass component of NWES sea level variability is required. We use regional ocean model experiments to isolate sources of variability and then investigate the effect on monthly to-interannual DSL variability together with the simulated momentum budgets along the shelfbreak. Regional (local) wind and non-regional (remote) forcing are important on the NWES. For the local wind forcing, the net mass flux onto the shelf, which drives a shelf-mean mode of DSL variability, results from a combination of surface Ekman, bottom Ekman and geostrophic flows and explains 73% of the variance in transport across the shelf-edge. The geostrophic flow is closely related to wind stress with a flow about half that of surface Ekman transport but in the opposite direction. For the remotely forced mass-flux across the shelf-edge, the geostrophic component explains 62% of the variance and bottom friction plays an important indirect role. The remotely forced variability, while relatively spatially uniform, is more important for explaining DSL variance over the western NWES. This mode of variability is sensitive to signals propagating northward via a thin strip of the southern boundary near the Portuguese coast, consistent with coastal trapped wave signals. It also appears to drive steric height in the Bay of Biscay, which is related to DSL on the shelf.

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The Irminger Current (IC) brings relatively warm and saline waters northward in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, contributing to the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The IC is a two-core current with surface-intensified velocities. The eastern core, closest to the Reykjanes Ridge, is warmer and more saline than the western core. To investigate the source waters of the two IC cores, using a 1/10° ocean model, we track Lagrangian particles released in the IC at OSNAP East (∼59.5°N) in the upper 1,000 m backward in time for one model year. Over a 1-year time scale, nearly all particles are sourced from nearby regions of the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin. Those seeded in the western IC core mostly originate from the Irminger Sea (83%), while those in its eastern core mostly originate from the Iceland Basin (69%). Iceland Basin water feeding the IC predominantly crosses the Reykjanes Ridge near 57°N and 59°N. Generally, particles from the Irminger Sea are colder and fresher than particles from the Iceland Basin. The fraction of waters from the Iceland Basin and the Irminger Sea varies from month to month. So, to explain monthly variations of the two IC cores at the OSNAP East line, changes in hydrographic properties in both basins as well as their contributions must be considered. Based on this model study, we interpret the Irminger Sea circulation as a basin-wide recirculation with an increasing contribution of Iceland Basin waters toward the ridge which is subject to monthly variations.

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Deltas are home to billions of people and are often highly developed and engineered systems. Extreme weather events such as droughts are a threat to deltas worldwide. During droughts salt can intrude far inland and threaten the drinking, agricultural and industrial water supply of many people. Under climate change the frequency of extreme events is expected to increase and the threat of salt intrusion may intensify. Here we use data and models to explore salt intrusion in the Rhine-Meuse Delta (RMD) during the severe European drought in the summer of 2022. The RMD is one of the most highly managed deltas in the world, with numerous interconnected waterways and an open connection to the sea at the mouth of the Rotterdam Waterway. The outflow of the Rhine River through the Rotterdam Waterway generates the strongly stratified Rhine River plume. Under normal conditions a salt wedge intrudes about 16-18 km inland on every tide. In contrast, under drought conditions in summer 2022, observations show salt intruding over 42 km inland and the Rhine River plume diminished in size. We explore the changes in estuarine dynamics during the drought using velocity, salinity and temperature data from various field campaigns near the mouth of the Rotterdam Waterway and within the delta, together with numerical models. We also compare drought condition observations with data from prior field campaigns during normal discharge conditions. Shifts in the relative strength of the dominant mechanisms of landward salt flux throughout the drought are explored and linked to the changes in estuarine response.@en

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports vast amounts of heat to high latitudes, and is largely responsible for Western Europe’s relatively mild climate. Climate models project the AMOC will weaken substantially over the 21st century, which impacts weather, climate, sea level and the oceanic carbon cycle. In many studies, the AMOC state is described in a condensed two-dimensional view or even by means of a single metric, which leaves many aspects of its complex 3D-structure underexposed. By revealing the sharp contrast in overturning strength between the western and eastern subpolar gyre (SPG), the recent OSNAP observations emphasized the importance of considering the AMOC in 3D. In this study, we explore this further by analyzing the characteristics of the overturning in density space in the North Atlantic SPG on a regional scale, and over time periods ranging from seasons to decades. For this, we use model data from the high-resolution GLORYS12 reanalysis, spanning the period 1993-2020. Following the approach applied in OSNAP, the overturning is assessed from alongstream changes in boundary current transport in specific density classes. This analysis is performed for the entire SPG, for its major basins (Iceland Basin, Irminger Sea, and Labrador Sea) and for smaller segments along the boundary currents, thus providing detailed insights in variations of the overturning varies along the entire SPG boundary. The mean overturning from GLORYS12 for 1993-2020 is 23.8 Sv, distributed as 41%, 29%, and 30% for the Iceland Basin, Irminger Sea, and Labrador Sea respectively, and peaking at increasingly higher densities in alongstream direction. Within each basin, a pronounced seasonal cycle can be identified, with the maximum overturning occurring in March and the minimum in September. Over the entire reanalysis period, the overturning strength in both the Iceland Basin and Irminger Sea exhibits a weak decreasing trend, whereas the Labrador Sea displays a weak increasing trend. The subdivision in shorter segments reveals large spatial differences in overturning, both with regard to its overall strength and its distribution over density classes. However, these outcomes are less robust than the analyses on the scale of the major basins, as the flow is highly variable and numerical uncertainties associated with offline overturning calculations become more prominent. Further research is needed to properly interpret these regional variations, and thereby improve our understanding of the AMOC dynamics and its sensitivity to changing oceanic and atmospheric forcing conditions. Linking them to local processes known to govern the overturning (i.e., formation of dense waters in the interior of marginal seas and their export, formation of dense waters within the boundary current system itself and the exchange of waters via overflows) seems a viable route. @en

Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure.

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Under the influence of climate change, estuaries around the world are increasingly exposed to more extreme weather conditions. In recent years droughts specifically have been occurring more frequently and for prolonged periods. During a period of drought, salt intrusion is exacerbated, impacting the availability and quality of water resources and the estuarine ecosystem. As the impacts of droughts can be severe, assessment of droughts and their influence on the estuarine system is of great importance.

Using a high-resolution 3D coupled ocean-delta model we investigate the influence of the record-breaking European drought of the summer of 2022 on the Rhine-Meuse Delta and compare this to the estuarine response under average discharge conditions, putting the drought’s influence into perspective. Spatial patterns of stratification, mixing, and straining and their evolution throughout the drought period are studied by a salinity variance analysis. The progression of the salt wedge and retreat of the tidal plume fronts are examined and related to the changing strength of the individual estuarine processes influencing stratification. We show that as the tidal plume fronts retreat during the drought, we see a corresponding change in the structure of the salt wedge, demonstrating the importance of the coupling between the tidal plume fronts and the estuarine dynamics.@en

Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies dominate the sea-surface height variability in the Caribbean Sea. Although it is well established that these anticyclones are formed near the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea, which is demarcated by the Lesser Antilles, the source of their anticyclonic vorticity remains unclear. To gain insight into this source, we analyze the fluxes of vorticity into the Caribbean at its eastern boundary using a high-resolution numerical model. We find that the anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea predominantly originates from regions where intense ocean currents flow close to the Lesser Antilles. More specifically, St. Lucia and Grenada are hotspots for vorticity generation. The local generation rate scales with the amplitude of the volume transport through the passages between these islands. This finding is in contrast with the view that anticyclonic North Brazil Current (NBC) rings in the Atlantic Ocean are the main source of anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Our analyses reveal that the direct contribution of the vorticity of the NBC rings is of lesser importance than the local generation. However, the collision of upstream NBC rings with the Lesser Antilles increases the volume transport through the passages into the Caribbean Sea, so that their presence indirectly leads to enhanced local production of anticyclonic vorticity. This process is an example of the importance of vorticity generation near topography, which is ubiquitous in the oceans, and expected to be important whenever currents and steep topography meet.

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Because of its pronounced fresh signature, the properties of the northward-flowing Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Hence, understanding modifications of AAIW along its path is important. Here, we analyze AAIW changes along its path in the Caribbean Sea and assess whether vertical fluxes from background turbulence and from double-diffusive mixing in thermohaline staircases can explain these variations. We deduce the occurrence rate of staircases (7%) and estimate the flux ratio (Formula presented.) from Argo float profiles. In combination with vertical fluxes from background turbulence, these values are used in a steady-state advection-diffusion model to estimate the effective diffusivity of salt that arises from double diffusion (Formula presented.). This value for (Formula presented.) is similar to observed values (Schmitt, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1108678), implying the observed modification of AAIW in the Caribbean Sea may be attributable primarily to vertical mixing in the region itself.

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Strongly forced salt wedge estuaries are known to demonstrate significant variability in stratification, currents, and mixing within a tidal cycle. Such estuaries also show strongly spatially varying patterns of stratification and mixing, and the processes causing this spatial and temporal variability are known to interact. As a consequence, the dynamics of these estuaries are distinctly different from well-mixed and partially mixed estuaries, and intratidal processes may play a more central role in the evolution of stratification.

The Rhine-Meuse estuary is an example of a strongly forced salt wedge estuary. It is very dynamic, mesotidal, and stably stratified. In this study, we investigate how individual intratidal estuarine processes contribute to the evolution of stratification in the Rhine-Meuse estuary. Data from recent shipboard measurements are used to assess their relative influence and highlight the potential importance of interactions between these processes.

From measurements in the Rhine-Meuse estuary we find that the availability of salt is determined by tidal advection of the salt wedge. Additionally, exchange flows transfer salt from high-density to low-density regions such as harbour basins and side branches while the salt wedge is advected through the estuary. The combination of the barotropic tidal asymmetry imposed at the river mouth and turbulence damping at the pycnocline results in strong shear and subsequent formation of mid-depth jets at the onset of flood. These mid-depth jets contribute to the transfer of salt by transporting salt from regions of higher momentum to regions of lower momentum. Furthermore, the measurements suggest that several bathymetric transitions locally generate internal wave activity, although the resulting turbulent mixing is not strong enough to erode the persistent salt wedge structure.

These findings underline the importance of interactions between intratidal processes on different spatial scales and their effect on the evolution of stratification in the Rhine-Meuse estuary. As an extension to our findings, measurements in the Rhine region of influence (ROFI) are used to further examine the role of the seaside forcing on the individual physical processes and the resulting intratidal variability of stratification in the estuary.@en

Projections of relative sea level change (RSLC) are commonly reported at an annual mean basis. The seasonality of RSLC is often not considered, even though it may modulate the impacts of annual mean RSLC. Here, we study seasonal differences in twenty-first-century ocean dynamic sea level change (DSLC; 2081–2100 minus 1995–2014) on the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES) and their drivers, using an ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models complemented with experiments performed with a regional ocean model. For the high-end emissions scenario SSP5–8.5, we find substantial seasonal differences in ensemble mean DSLC, especially in the southeastern North Sea. For example, at Esbjerg (Denmark), winter mean DSLC is on average 8.4 cm higher than summer mean DSLC. Along all coasts on the NWES, DSLC is higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. For the low-end emissions scenario SSP1–2.6, these seasonal differences are smaller. Our experiments indicate that the changes in winter and summer sea level anomalies are mainly driven by regional changes in wind stress anomalies, which are generally southwesterly and east-northeasterly over the NWES, respectively. In spring and autumn, regional wind stress changes play a smaller role. We also show that CMIP6 models not resolving currents through the English Channel cannot accurately simulate the effect of seasonal wind stress changes on the NWES. Our results imply that using projections of annual mean RSLC may underestimate the projected changes in extreme coastal sea levels in spring and winter. Additionally, changes in the seasonal sea level cycle may affect groundwater dynamics and the inundation characteristics of intertidal ecosystems.

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The sound speed provides insight in ocean properties, as it depends on depth, temperature and salinity. Here, we propose a method to invert sound speed profiles (SSPs) from multibeam echosounder (MBES) measurements, providing a SSP for every ping. Using erroneous SSPs results in a mismatch in the estimated bathymetry between overlapping swaths. The SSP is estimated by minimizing this mismatch using Differential Evolution. In this work, SSPs are described using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which are obtained from historical SSPs. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the inversion on a simulated MBES survey, where the synthetically generated SSPs are fully described by 3 EOFs. The inverted SSPs deviate 1 m/s from the correct profiles. In the case of actual SSPs, more EOFs are possibly required. The number of required EOFs to get an accurate estimate of the SSP is assessed by using SSPs acquired in the North Sea. Results show that including only 2 EOFs is sufficient to accurately estimate the SSP, although larger deviations up to 3 m/s were found. In this paper, we demonstrated the potential of the proposed method to invert SSPs from MBES measurements, which can provide information about the vertical structure of the water column. @en

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

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The dense waters formed by wintertime convection in the Labrador Sea play a key role in setting the properties of the deep Atlantic Ocean. To understand how variability in their production might affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability, it is essential to determine pathways and associated timescales of their export. In this study, we analyze the trajectories of Argo floats and of Lagrangian particles launched at 53°N in the boundary current and traced backward in time in a high-resolution model, to identify and quantify the importance of upstream pathways. We find that 85% of the transport carried by the particles at 53°N originates from Cape Farewell, and it is split between a direct route that follows the boundary current and an indirect route involving boundary-interior exchanges. Although both routes contribute roughly equally to the maximum overturning, the indirect route governs its signal in denser layers. This indirect route has two branches: part of the convected water is exported rapidly on the Labrador side of the basin and part follows a longer route toward Greenland and is then carried with the boundary current. Export timescales of these two branches typically differ by 2.5 years. This study thus shows that boundary-interior exchanges are important for the pathways and the properties of water masses arriving at 53°N. It reveals a complex three-dimensional view of the convected water export, with implications for the arrival time of signals of variability therein at 53°N and thus for our understanding of the AMOC.@en

Thermohaline staircases are associated with double-diffusive mixing. They are characterized by stepped structures consisting of mixed layers of typically tens of metres thick that are separated by much thinner interfaces. Through these interfaces enhanced diapycnal salt and heat transport take place. In this study, we present a global dataset of thermohaline staircases derived from observations of Argo profiling floats and Ice-Tethered Profilers using a novel detection algorithm. To establish the presence of thermohaline staircases, the algorithm detects subsurface mixed layers and analyses the interfaces in between. Of each detected staircase, the conservative temperature, absolute salinity, depth, and height, as well as some other properties of the mixed layers and interfaces, are computed. The algorithm is applied to 487 493 quality-controlled temperature and salinity profiles to obtain a global dataset. The performance of the algorithm is verified through an analysis of independent regional observations. The algorithm and global dataset are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4286170.

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The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea-level rise. Intermodel differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS-based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time-integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated.

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Sea level on the northwestern European shelf (NWES) varies substantially from year to year. Removing explained parts of interannual sea level variability from observations helps to improve estimates of long-term sea level trends. To this end, the contributions of different drivers to interannual sea level variability need to be understood and quantified. We quantified these contributions for the entire NWES by performing sensitivity experiments with a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The lateral and atmospheric boundary conditions were derived from reanalyses. We compared our model results with satellite altimetry data and used our sensitivity experiments to show that nonlinear feedbacks cause only minor interannual sea level variability on the shelf. This indicates that our experiments can be used to separate the effects of different drivers. We find that wind dominates the variability of annual mean sea level in the southern and eastern North Sea (up to 4.7-cm standard deviation), whereas the inverse barometer effect dominates elsewhere on the NWES (up to 1.7-cm standard deviation). In contrast, forcing at the lateral ocean boundaries results in small and coherent variability on the shelf (0.5-cm standard deviation). Variability driven by buoyancy fluxes ranges from 0.5- to 1.3-cm standard deviation. The results of our sensitivity experiments explain the (anti)correlation between interannual sea level variability at different locations on the NWES and can be used to estimate sea level rise from observations in this region with higher accuracy.

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Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions.@en

Shallow tropical bays in the Caribbean, like Orient Bay and Galion Bay in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs. In the relatively calm environment behind the reefs, seagrass meadows grow. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable ecosystem services like coastal protection, biodiversity hotspots, nursery grounds for animals and enhancing tourism and fisheries. However, sea-level rise imperils these ecosystems and the services they provide because of changing hydrodynamic conditions, with potential effects on the interdependencies between these ecosystems. By means of a hydrodynamic model that accounts for the interaction with vegetation (Delft3D Flexible Mesh), the impact of sea-level rise (0.87 m in 2100) is investigated for three scenarios of future reef development (i.e. keep-up, give-up and catch-up). If coral reefs cannot keep up with sea-level rise, the wave height and flow velocity increase significantly within associated bays, with the wave height doubling locally in case of eroding reefs in our model simulations. Since the presence of seagrass strongly depends on the hydrodynamic conditions, the response of seagrass to the future hydrodynamic conditions is projected using a habitat suitability model that is based on a logistic regression. The spatial character of the bays determines the response of seagrass. In Orient Bay, which is deeper and partly exposed to higher waves, the seagrass will likely migrate from the deeper parts to shallow areas that become suitable for seagrass because of the surf zone moving landward. In contrast, the conditions for seagrass worsen in Galion Bay for the catch-up and give-up scenario; due to the shallowness of this bay, the seagrass cannot escape to more suitable areas, resulting in significant seagrass loss. It is shown that healthy coastal ecosystems are able to limit the change in hydrodynamic conditions due to sea-level rise. Therefore, preserving these ecosystems is key for ensuring the resilience of shallow tropical bays to sea-level rise and maintaining their ecosystem services.

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Changes in ocean properties and circulation lead to a spatially non-uniform pattern of ocean dynamic sea-level change (DSLC). The projections of ocean dynamic sea level presented in the IPCC AR5 were constructed with global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Since CMIP5 GCMs have a relatively coarse resolution and exclude tides and surges it is unclear whether they are suitable for providing DSLC projections in shallow coastal regions such as the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES). One approach to addressing these shortcomings is dynamical downscaling – i.e. using a high-resolution regional model forced with output from GCMs. Here we use the regional shelf seas model AMM7 to show that, depending on the driving CMIP5 GCM, dynamical downscaling can have a large impact on DSLC simulations in the NWES region. For a business-as-usual greenhouse gas concentration scenario, we find that downscaled simulations of twenty-first century DSLC can be up to 15.5 cm smaller than DSLC in the GCM simulations along the North Sea coastline owing to unresolved processes in the GCM. Furthermore, dynamical downscaling affects the simulated time of emergence of sea-level change (SLC) above sea-level variability, and can result in differences in the projected change of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea level of over 0.3 mm/yr. We find that the difference between GCM and downscaled results is of similar magnitude to the uncertainty of CMIP5 ensembles used for previous DSLC projections. Our results support a role for dynamical downscaling in future regional sea-level projections to aid coastal decision makers.

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Atlantic Water takes various pathways through the Nordic Seas, and its transformation to denser waters forms a crucial connection to the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Circulation maps often schematize two distinct pathways of Atlantic Water: one following the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current along the continental slope of Norway and one following the Norwegian Atlantic Front Current along the Mohn and Knipovich Ridges. In this paper, the connectivity between the northward flow along these ridges is investigated. Analyzing trajectories of surface drifters and ARGO floats, we find that only 8% of the floats that travel near the mid-ocean ridges take the frontal pathway to the north. Indeed, by tracing numerical particles in a realistic numerical simulation, part of the water mass traveling along the Mohn Ridge follows the 2,500 m isobath eastward and joins the slope current, instead of flowing north along the Knipovich Ridge. Furthermore, north of 74°N, frequent exchange between the slope current and the front current is observed. Therefore, the slope current and front current are less isolated than often schematized. Additionally, the observational data set reveals substantial cross-ridge exchange; 31% of the floats that travel within 60 km from the mid-ocean ridges cross it. Results from numerical simulations indicate that the cross-ridge exchange leads to cooling and freshening of the Atlantic Water along the front. Deployments of floats near the mid-ocean ridges are needed to investigate the pathway of Atlantic Water and its exchange across the ridge in more detail.

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