Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Olga S. Kleptsova Universiteit Utrecht
H. A. Dijkstra Universiteit Utrecht
Marcel Zijlema Hydraulic Engineering
J.D. Pietrzak Hydraulic Engineering
R. M. van Westen Universiteit Utrecht
C.G. van der Boog Hydraulic Engineering
C.A. Katsman Hydraulic Engineering
R. K. James Universiteit Utrecht
Tjeerd J. Bouma Universiteit Utrecht
R. Klees Physical and Space Geodesy - CEG
R.E.M. Riva Physical and Space Geodesy - CEG
D.C. Slobbe Physical and Space Geodesy - CEG
Department
Hydraulic Engineering
Copyright: © 2021 Olga S. Kleptsova, Henk A. Dijkstra, René M. van Westen, C.G. van der Boog, C.A. Katsman, Rebecca K. James, Tjeerd J. Bouma, R. Klees, R.E.M. Riva, D.C. Slobbe, Marcel Zijlema, J.D. Pietrzak
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016869
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Published Date

2021

Language

English

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Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Abstract

Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

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