Projecting Global Mean Sea-Level Change Using CMIP6 Models

Journal article (2021)

Authors

T.H.J. Hermans Physical and Space Geodesy - CEG , NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Jonathan M. Gregory Met Office, University of Reading
Matthew D. Palmer Met Office
Mark A. Ringer Met Office
Aimée B.A. Slangen NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Research Group
Physical and Space Geodesy (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2021 T.H.J. Hermans, Jonathan M. Gregory, Matthew D. Palmer, Mark A. Ringer, C.A. Katsman, Aimée B.A. Slangen
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092064
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

2021

Language

English

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Geoscience and Remote Sensing

Research Group

Physical and Space Geodesy

Abstract

The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher than in CMIP5, but projections of global mean thermal expansion are not. Using these projections as input to construct projections of GMSL change with IPCC AR5 methods, the 95th percentile of GMSL change at 2100 only increases by 3–7 cm. Projected rates of GMSL rise around 2100 increase more strongly, though, implying more pronounced differences beyond 2100 and greater committed sea-level rise. Intermodel differences in GMSL projections indicate that EffCS-based model selection may substantially alter the ensemble projections. GMSL change in 2100 is accurately predicted by time-integrated temperature change, and thus requires reducing emissions early to be mitigated.