A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios for decision-making is recognized, a structured way for executing this process remains unclear. To configure a solution, we propose two concepts that need to be introduced: 1) that scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) that changes should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different distinguished layers. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date while guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. The framework is applied to a test case consisting of three scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Electric Vehicles are chosen as an uncertainty to illustrate how to structurally incorporate changes. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios.

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The geopolitical implications of renewable energy involve changes beyond the immediate impact on energy and commodity streams. Energy policies of individual countries affect each other via different economic and political channels. This paper studies the role of renewable energy in EU-China relations, two leading powers in the field of renewable energy. Both polities have recently increased their individual ambitions towards decarbonisation of their domestic energy systems, and renewables play an increasingly important role in shaping their bilateral dealings. We therefore ask what influence renewable energy has on the relationship between both sides. To capture the effect, we employ the concept of policy interdependence in four areas related to renewable energy namely climate, energy, industry, and trade and investment policy. While these are often seen as separate fields, they are all related to renewable energy. Findings indicate that renewable energy has the potential to be a determinant of bilateral relations. Renewable energy contributed to greater alignment between the EU and China in the past, while increasing recourse to policy choices based on national priorities today creates obstacles to further cooperation. However, the patterns of policy interdependence identified in this study also suggest potential for renewed cooperation in the field of energy policy, depending on the capability of policymakers to see beyond the current structure of the bilateral relationship.

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This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.

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This policy perspective sums up the main input of four members of the Research Panel for IRENA's Global Commission on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation. The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems are fundamentally different from those of coal, oil, and natural gas. This has implications for interstate energy relations and will require early attention if states are to exploit opportunities and address challenges. We point to six clusters of renewables' geopolitical implications that will manifest themselves over different time horizons. Overall, a generally positive disruption is foreseen, but also one that raises new energy security challenges. Moreover, while renewables will eventually render energy relations more horizontal and polycentric, achieving a smooth transition will not be easy. Renewables alter arenas of energy interaction, transforming markets and shifting trade partners, and reshape patterns of cooperation and conflict among countries. One possible outcome is a world of continental-sized grid communities made up of prosumer countries that continuously strategize between secure domestic production and cheap imports. Political action is required to manage, inter alia, industrial competition, stranded assets, availability of electricity and storage capacity, critical materials, and rivalry over ownership of key infrastructure assets.

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In this perspectives piece, an interdisciplinary team of social science researchers considers the implications of Covid-19 for the politics of sustainable energy transitions. The emergency measures adopted by states, firms, and individuals in response to this global health crisis have driven a series of political, economic and social changes with potential to influence sustainable energy transitions. We identify some of the initial impacts of the ‘great lockdown’ on sustainable and fossil sources of energy, and consider how economic stimulus packages and social practices in the wake of the pandemic are likely to shape energy demand, the carbon-intensity of the energy system, and the speed of transitions. Adopting a broad multi-scalar and multi-actor approach to the analysis of energy system change, we highlight continuities and discontinuities with pre-pandemic trends. Discussion focuses on four key themes that shape the politics of sustainable energy transitions: (i) the short, medium and long-term temporalities of energy system change; (ii) practices of investment around clean-tech and divestment from fossil fuels; (iii) structures and scales of energy governance; and (iv) social practices around mobility, work and public health. While the effects of the pandemic continue to unfold, some of its sectoral and geographically differentiated impacts are already emerging. We conclude that the politics of sustainable energy transitions are now at a critical juncture, in which the form and direction of state support for post-pandemic economic recovery will be key.

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While most hydrogen research focuses on the technical and cost hurdles to a full-scale hydrogen economy, little consideration has been given to the geopolitical drivers and consequences of hydrogen developments. The technologies and infrastructures underpinning a hydrogen economy can take markedly different forms, and the choice over which pathway to take is the object of competition between different stakeholders and countries. Over time, cross-border maritime trade in hydrogen has the potential to fundamentally redraw the geography of global energy trade, create a new class of energy exporters, and reshape geopolitical relations and alliances between countries. International governance and investments to scale up hydrogen value chains could reduce the risk of market fragmentation, carbon lock-in, and intensified geo-economic rivalry.

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Renewable energy is the energy of the future – plentiful and ubiquitous. Technological advances and economies of scale are bringing down prices, whereas fossil and nuclear are increasingly uncompetitive. Here, the Green European Journal presents in numbers how energy systems will evolve over the decades to come, while Daniel Scholten traces the new geopolitical faultlines set to supersede those of the fossil age.@en

The Energy Strategy and Energy Union call for secure, competitive, and sustainable energy in the European Union (EU) and set ambitious goals for greater energy efficiency and deployment of renewables in the coming decades. By 2030, for example, the EU should rely on renewable sources for 27% of its energy mix. Achieving this and other targets will require all Member States to embrace renewable energy and lessen dependence on fossil fuels (domestic and imported). However, it appears that divergent energy paths are emerging within the EU. There are considerable differences in the speed and motivation with which Member States pursue an energy transition. Some EU Member States strongly promote renewables (Germany, Denmark) while some actively resist (Poland). Moreover, some have a geographical head start (Austria, Sweden), while others are lack favorable conditions, finance, and know-how (Hungary, Slovakia). These differences both reflect and lead to divergent national energy security interests and energy (foreign) policy strategies. For example, pro-renewable countries perceive the energy transition as an industrial opportunity that simultaneously diversifies their energy portfolio and mitigates greenhouse gas emissions. For these countries, European cooperation is a means to tackle these challenges together. Other countries, however, perceive the efforts of their greener neighbors as a nuisance that challenges security of supply and brings grid problems and price volatility without any additional revenue or employment benefits. In recent years, these divisions have increased rather than lessened. The divergent energy paths that are emerging threaten to undermine the Energy Strategy and Energy Union. What makes the matter additionally politically sensitive is that the divergent paths seem to run along a West-East axis. While many Western-European countries coordinate for the system integration of renewables, many Eastern European countries try to block renewables’ negative effects. The EU’s energy transition goals may thus exacerbate the strains between West-East, particularly with regard to energy relations. If the European Commission is to ensure the success of the Energy Strategy and Energy Union, it will need to find a way to prevent, mitigate, or mediate potential challenges whilst harnessing the opportunities of renewable energy. This paper investigates how the different speeds of the EU energy transition and related divergent energy security perceptions among Western and Eastern EU Member States affect European energy relations and what the European Commission can do to prevent, mitigate, or mediate potential strife. Our focus is on contemporary developments and how they may shape the coming decades. Share this page @en

This volume explores the geopolitics of renewables: the implications for interstate energy relations of a transition towards renewable energy. Noting the different geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems vis-à-vis those of fossil fuels, it investigates specifically how renewables might (re)shape strategic realities and policy considerations of producer, consumer, and transit countries and energy-related patterns of cooperation and conflict between them. Focus is on contemporary developments and how they may shape the coming decades. The objective is to establish a comprehensive overview and understanding of the emerging energy game, one that puts the topic on the map and provides practical illustrations of the changes renewables bring to energy geopolitics and specific countries. To this end, a novel analytical framework is introduced that moves from geography and technology to economics and politics and developments are studied on three levels of analysis: (a) the emerging global energy game, winners and losers; (b) regional and bilateral energy relations of established and rising powers; and (c) infrastructure developments and governance responses. This concluding chapter summarizes the core developments shaping the geopolitics of renewables, using the framework to reflect on the relationship under study and our expectations. It also draws overarching lessons for the field of geopolitics of renewables and regarding the challenges and opportunities countries face in securing an affordable energy supply in the emerging energy game.

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The discovery of natural gas in Slochteren in 1959 kick started a major transition in the Dutch energy sector. The move from coal mined in Limburg to natural gas extraction in Groningen had a huge impact on both provinces in particular and the Dutch energy sector in general. After the last of the twelve coal mines in Limburg was shut in 1969, half of the workforce in Limburg was left unemployed, considered unfit, or in early retirement (NOS 2014). Political leverage of Limburg on the overall energy policy also took a hit, considering coal-fired power plants located in other provinces were no longer dependent on coal from Limburg. In Groningen, natural gas created space for thousands of jobs and allowed the region to establish itself as an energy hub, economically, politically, and academically. Gas export revenues also became a welcome addition to the national treasury.@en

The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems are fundamentally different from those of coal, oil and natural gas. Renewable energy sources are abundant and intermittent; renewable energy production lends itself more to decentral generation and involves rare earth materials in clean-tech equipment; their distribution, finally, is generally electric in nature and involves stringent managerial conditions. These stand in clear contrast to the geographically fixed and finite nature of fossil fuel resources, their general reliance on large centralized production and processing installations, and their ease of storage and transportation as solids, liquids, or gases around the globe. @en

In 2010 an initiative was launched to realize a competitive single EU market for natural gas through the use of a future vision. This Gas Target Model (GTM) aimed to provide direction for concrete market development through regulatory structures as well as an overarching scope of what a functioning gas market would entail. This paper assesses the use and impact of such sectoral visions. We develop a framework that builds on the sociology of expectations and foresight studies and distinguish between the envisioning process, vision content, and vision use (output). The analysis follows the development of two versions of the GTM: 2011 and 2015. We find that the GTM has a contradictory nature. The vision that feeds into regulatory structures requires a stable and uniform rule set. The overarching vision requires incorporation of long-term uncertainty and adaptability. Moreover, the sectoral focus requires alignment to adjacent sectors and wider policy considerations. This makes it difficult to set boundaries, to identify relevant actors, and to ensure commitment from these actors. We conclude that the former vision was actively pursued and materialized in Framework Guidelines and Network Codes, while the latter vision is just being identified and framed.

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The transition to a more sustainable personal transportation sector requires the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. However, a dominant design has not yet emerged and a standards battle is being fought between battery and hydrogen fuel cell powered electric vehicles. The aim of this paper is to analyze which factors are most likely to influence the outcome of this battle, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the industry regarding investment decisions in either of these technologies. We examine the relevant factors for standard dominance and apply a multi-criteria decision-making method, best worst method, to determine the relative importance of these factors. The results indicate that the key factors include technological superiority, compatibility, and brand reputation and credibility. Our findings show that battery powered electric vehicles have a greater chance of winning the standards battle. This study contributes to theory by providing further empirical evidence that the outcome of standards battles can be explained and predicted by applying factors for standard success. We conclude that technology dominance in the automotive industry is mostly driven by technological characteristics and characteristics of the format supporter.

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This paper explores the potential political implications of the geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems. This is done through a thought experiment that imagines a purely renewable based energy system, keeping all else equal. We start by noting that all countries have access to some form of renewable energy, though some are better endowed than others. We find two major implications for renewable energy based markets: a) countries face a make or buy decision, i.e. they have a choice to produce or import energy; b) electricity is the dominant energy carrier, implying a more physically integrated infrastructure with stringent managerial requirements. Two scenarios illustrate the strategic concerns arising from these implications: Continental, following a buy decision and more centralized network, and National, following a make decision and more decentralized network. Three observations stand out compared to the geopolitics of an energy system based on fossil fuels. First, a shift in considerations from getting access to resources to strategic positioning in infrastructure management. Second, a shift in strategic leverage from producers to consumers and those countries being able to render balancing and storage services. Finally, the possibility for most countries to become a 'prosumer country' may greatly reduce any form of geopolitical concern.

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The growing penetration of distributed energy resources is opening up opportunities for local energy management (LEM) – the coordination of decentralized energy supply, storage, transport, conversion and consumption within a given geographical area. Because European electricity market liberalization concentrates competition at the wholesale level, local energy management at the distribution level is likely to impose new roles and responsibilities on existing and/or new actors. This paper provides insights into the appropriateness of organizational models for flexibility management to guarantee retail competition and feasibility for upscaling. By means of a new analytical framework three projects in the Netherlands and one in Germany have been analysed. Both the local aggregator and dynamic pricing projects present potentials for retail competition and feasibility of upscaling in Europe.@en

Energy infrastructures are increasingly perceived as complex, adaptive socio-technical systems. Their design has not kept up; it is still fragmented between an engineering and economic dimension. While economists focus on a market design that addresses potential market failures and imperfections, opportunistic behavior, and social objectives, engineers pay attention to infrastructure assets, a robust network topology, and control system design to handle flows and eventualities. These two logics may be complementary, but may also be at odds. Moreover, it is generally unclear what design choices in one dimension imply for the other. As such, we are ill-equipped to identify, interpret, and address the challenges stemming from technical innovations, e.g., the integration of renewable energy technologies, and institutional changes, e.g., liberalization or new forms of organization like cooperatives, which often have interrelated operational and market implications. In response, this paper proposes a more comprehensive design framework that bridges the engineering and economic perspectives on energy infrastructure design. To this end, it elaborates the different design perspectives and develops the means to relate design variables of both perspectives along several layers of abstraction: the form of infrastructure access of actors, the division of responsibilities among actors, and type of coordination between actors. The intention is that this way system and market design efforts can be better attuned to each other and we further our understanding and conceptualization of the interrelationship between the techno-operational and economic-institutional dimensions of energy infrastructures. The framework also aids in overseeing the broader institutional implications of technical developments (and vice versa) and stimulates awareness of lock-ins and path-dependencies in this regard.@en