As energy systems grow more complex, modeling efforts spanning multiple scales, disciplines and perspectives are essential. Improved methods are needed to guide the development of not just individual models, but also multi-model ecologies - systems of interacting models. Currently there is a lack of knowledge concerning how multi-model ecologies can and should be designed to facilitate adequate understanding of energy system complexity and its consequences. Via an analysis of twelve multi-model initiatives both within and outside the energy domain, this paper elucidates possible design patterns and development paths for multi-model ecologies.The results highlight two broad paths to developing energy system multi-model ecologies, one prioritizing interoperability and the other prioritizing diversity. The former path facilitates the efficient development of models spanning multiple scales and (to a degree) disciplines, and can ease systematic testing of assumptions. The latter is suited to bridging traditional disciplines and perspectives and advancing knowledge within the interstices of different knowledge communities. It is furthermore suggested that a combination of diversity, connectivity and hierarchy in multi-model ecology composition is central to enabling the development of complex webs of models capable of addressing the complexity of real-world energy systems.

@en

This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades. Situated in a low-lying coastal delta, the Netherlands may be particularly exposed to certain types of extreme weather(-induced) events. The degree to which the country’s electricity network may prove resilient in the face of these future events is an open question. The model focuses on two types of extreme events – floods and heat waves – and assesses two types of adaptation measures – substation flood protections and demand-side management. The model employs a network-based approach in assessing infrastructure resilience – explicitly representing the structure and properties of the Dutch transmission infrastructure – and extends previous work by accounting for key power system characteristics such as capacity constraints and cascading failures. From a practice perspective, the results offer a first indication of the vulnerability of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure in the context of climate change. These results suggest that the network displays some vulnerability to both floods and heat waves. Both types of adaptation measures tested are found to enhance resilience, though substation flood protection shows greater benefits. Whilst the model was specifically developed for the study of electricity networks, we anticipate that this method may also be applicable to other types of transport infrastructures.

@en

The growing penetration of distributed energy resources is opening up opportunities for local energy management (LEM) – the coordination of decentralized energy supply, storage, transport, conversion and consumption within a given geographical area. Because European electricity market liberalization concentrates competition at the wholesale level, local energy management at the distribution level is likely to impose new roles and responsibilities on existing and/or new actors. This paper provides insights into the appropriateness of organizational models for flexibility management to guarantee retail competition and feasibility for upscaling. By means of a new analytical framework three projects in the Netherlands and one in Germany have been analysed. Both the local aggregator and dynamic pricing projects present potentials for retail competition and feasibility of upscaling in Europe.@en

Substance flow analysis (SFA) is a frequently used industrial ecology technique for studying societal metal flows, but it is limited in its ability to inform us about future developments in metal flow patterns and how we can affect them. Equation-based simulation modeling techniques, such as dynamic SFA and system dynamics, can usefully complement static SFA studies in this respect, but they are also restricted in several ways. The objective of this article is to demonstrate the ability of agent-based modeling to overcome these limitations and its usefulness as a tool for studying societal metal flow systems. The body of the article summarizes the parallel implementation of two models¿an agent-based model and a system dynamics model¿both addressing the following research question: What conditions foster the development of a closed-loop flow network for metals in mobile phones? The results from in silico experimentation with these models highlight three important differences between agent-based modeling (ABM) and equation-based modeling (EBM) techniques. An analysis of how these differences affected the insights that could be extracted from the constructed models points to several key advantages of ABM in the study of metal flow systems. In particular, this analysis suggests that a key advantage of the ABM technique is its flexibility to enable the representation of societal metal flow systems in a more native manner. This added flexibility endows modelers with enhanced leverage to identify options for steering metal flows and opens new opportunities for using the metaphor of an ecosystem to understand metal flow systems more fully.@en