The risk of coastal storm flooding is deteriorating under global warming, especially for the heavily urbanized deltaic cities, like Shanghai. The Nature-Based Flood Defense (NBFD), as an eco-friendly design alternative for hard infrastructure against coastal flooding, is gaining attention. Nevertheless, the vulnerability of saltmarsh due to the biological instability, resulting in the uncertainties on coastal protection, is considered the bottleneck challenge that hinders the broad application of the NBFD concept. We argue that except for direct wave attenuations by the above-ground vegetation during storms, the gradual sediment trapping and consolidating during the non-storm period is a more crucial function of coastal saltmarsh, which mitigates storm waves by forming a broader and higher intertidal morphology. This benefit is an important value of saltmarsh-based coastal protection but is largely neglected in many NBFD studies. Taking Chongming Dongtan Shoal (CDS) as a case study, we demonstrated that over 2/3th wave attenuation during storms is contributed by the saltmarsh morphology, and less than 1/3th is from the saltmarsh vegetation. The relative contribution of the saltmarsh morphology on wave mitigation is even enhanced under the increasing storm grades from 100 yrs. to 5000 yrs. return levels. To promote this idea for broader application, the cost-benefit analysis of three artificial NBFD solutions (e.g., submerged breakwater, timber piles, and sand nourishment) are compared. We identified an optimal measure of the submerged breakwater for CDS, which minimizes the ecological impact and maximizes the cost-benefit. Moreover, the wave-free zone behind the breakwater increases the chance of vegetation establishment, helps suspended sediment trapping, hence fostering a beneficent cycle for saltmarsh restoration. In summary, ignoring the contribution of saltmarsh morphology on wave attenuation largely underestimated the benefits of vegetation-based coastal protection, which should be greatly emphasized to provide a solid basis for developing NBFD.

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Data island effectively blocks the practical application of machine learning. To meet this challenge, a new framework known as federated learning was created. It allows model training on a large amount of scattered data owned by different data providers. This article presents a parallel solution for computing logistic regression based on distributed asynchronous task framework. Compared to the existing work, our proposed solution does not rely on any third-party coordinator, and hence has better security and can solve the multitraining problem. The logistic regression based on homomorphic encryption is implemented in Python, which is used for vertical federated learning and prediction of the resulting model. We evaluate the proposed solution using the MNIST dataset, and the experimental results show that good performance is achieved.

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A better understanding of how tidal-flat reclamation changes the flood hazard is critical for climate-proofing coastal flood defense design of heavily urbanized areas. Since the 1950s, large-scale reclamation has been performed along the Shanghai coast, China, to fulfill the land demands of city expansion. We now show that the loss of tidal flats may have resulted in harmful impacts of coastal storm flooding. Using the foreshore profiles measured before and after reclamation (i.e., wide vs. narrow tidal flat), we determined the long-term changes in flood risk using a numerical model that combines extreme tidal level and wave overtopping analysis. Results show that wide tidal flats in front of a seawall provide efficient wave damping even during extreme water levels. Reclamation of these tidal flats substantially increased wave heights and correspondingly reduced the return period of a specific storm. As a result, estimates of overtopping are aggravated by more than 80% for the varying return periods examined. It is concluded that the disasters of coastal flooding after the 1997 tidal-flat reclamation in Hangzhou Bay, China are a consequence of both anthropogenic and natural activities. Moreover, our model calculations provide an equation describing the equivalent dike height needed to compensate for the loss of every km tidal flat of a certain elevation, and vice versa. For example, for every km of tidal flat ranging from high marsh to bare tidal flat that is being regained, the dike can be lowered by 0.84 m–0.67 m, when designing for a 1 in 200 years storm event. Overall, we suggest that wide tidal flats are ideally restored in front of dikes, and that when tidal areas are reclaimed, the seawall height is raised as part of the intertidal reclamation procedure. Using such an equivalent protection standard is relevant to designing hybrid flood defense system worldwide.

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Flood risk is expected to increase in coastal cities, particularly in Asian megacities such as Shanghai. This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to simulate changes in the flood risk in Shanghai and provide a cost-benefit analysis of multiple adaptation strategies used to reduce risk. The results show that the potential flood risk will increase dramatically as a result of sea level rise, land subsidence, and socioeconomic development. By 2100, the expected annual damage could reach 0.8% (uncertainty range: 0.4%–1.4%) of local GDP under an optimistic emission scenario (RCP4.5), compared to the current value of 0.03%. All of the adaptation strategies can effectively reduce the flood risk under the current conditions and those in 2050. In contrast to the ‘hard’ flood protection strategies (i.e., storm-surge barriers and floodwalls), the ‘soft’ strategies (i.e., building codes and nature-based measures) cannot substantially reduce the flood risk in 2100. However, the soft strategies can play a critical role in reducing the residual risk resulting from the hard strategies. A ‘hybrid’ strategy combining a storm-surge barrier, wet-proofing, and coastal wetland development outperforms both hard and soft strategies in terms of low residual risk and high benefit/cost ratio. Additionally, the hybrid strategy can also enable a larger reduction in casualties. These findings imply that managing flood risk is more than the use of single adaptation measures. The methodology developed in this paper can enlighten Shanghai and other coastal cities on an economically and socially feasible adaptation strategy in an uncertain future.

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Extreme flooding usually causes huge losses of residential buildings and household properties, which is critical to flood risk analysis and flood resilience building in Shanghai. We developed a scenario-based multidisciplinary approach to analyze the exposure, losses and risks of residential buildings and household properties, and their spatial patterns at the neighborhood committee level in Shanghai, based on extreme storm flood scenarios of 1/200, 1/500, 1/1000 and 1/5000-year. Our findings show that the inundation area of the residential buildings caused by a 1/200-year storm flood reaches 24.9 km², and the total loss of residential buildings and household properties is 29.7 billion CNY (Chinese Yuan) (or 4.4 billion USD), while the inundation area of residential buildings and the total loss increases up to 162.4 km² and 366.0 billion CNY (or 54.2 billion USD), respectively for a 1/5000-year storm flood. The estimated average annual loss (AAL) of residential buildings and household properties for Shanghai is 590 million CNY/year (or 87.4 million USD/year), with several hot spots distributed around the main urban area and on the bank of the Hangzhou Bay. Among sixteen districts, Pudong has the highest exposure and annual expected loss, while the inner city is also subject to extreme flooding with an AAL up to near half of the total. An analysis of flood risk in each of 209 subdistricts/towns finds that those most vulnerable to storm flooding are concentrated in Pudong, Jiading, Baoshan Districts and the inner city. Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also be used for risk analysis in other coastal cities facing the threat of storm flooding.

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Estuary deltas and coastal cities are facing with the rising risk of the compound flooding due to the coincidence of storm surge, extreme precipitation, high tide and high river discharge. A new integrated numerical modeling system, which coupled atmosphere, ocean and coast processes, was developed to simulate the extreme compound coastal flooding (including four threats of flooding) in Shanghai. The new developed model was calibrated to provide a valid numerical solution for the integrated compound flooding simulation. The results showed that flooding area (inundation depth > 0.2 m) was reduced by approximately 62% after the enhancement of seawall and levee in 1998. Therefore, it is concluded that seawall and levee construction plays a key role in coastal flooding prevention in Shanghai. The accurate simulation of extreme compound coastal flooding provides rational information for the future planning of property insurance and city development.@en

As a tide propagates into the estuary, river discharge affects tidal damping, primarily via a friction term, attenuating tidal motion by increasing the quadratic velocity in the numerator, while reducing the effective friction by increasing the water depth in the denominator. For the first time, we demonstrate a third effect of river discharge that may lead to the weakening of the channel convergence (i.e. landward reduction of channel width and/or depth). In this study, monthly averaged tidal water levels (2003-2014) at six gauging stations along the Yangtze River estuary are used to understand the seasonal behaviour of tidal damping and residual water level slope. Observations show that there is a critical value of river discharge, beyond which the tidal damping is reduced with increasing river discharge. This phenomenon is clearly observed in the upstream part of the Yangtze River estuary (between the Maanshan and Wuhu reaches), which suggests an important cumulative effect of residual water level on tide-river dynamics. To understand the underlying mechanism, an analytical model has been used to quantify the seasonal behaviour of tide-river dynamics and the corresponding residual water level slope under various external forcing conditions. It is shown that a critical position along the estuary is where there is maximum tidal damping (approximately corresponding to a maximum residual water level slope), upstream of which tidal damping is reduced in the landward direction. Moreover, contrary to the common assumption that larger river discharge leads to heavier damping, we demonstrate that beyond a critical value tidal damping is slightly reduced with increasing river discharge, owing to the cumulative effect of the residual water level on the effective friction and channel convergence. Our contribution describes the seasonal patterns of tide-river dynamics in detail, which will, hopefully, enhance our understanding of the nonlinear tide-river interplay and guide effective and sustainable water management in the Yangtze River estuary and other estuaries with substantial freshwater discharge.@en

Green infrastructure (GI) plays a fundamental role in achieving urban pluvial flood management, mitigating urban heat island effect, and improving living suitability. Residents' participation is the main driving force of GI implementation. Based on semi-structured interviews, GIS spatial analysis, and multiple regression, we investigated residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI in public and private space and identified the influence factors in Shanghai, China. The results show that, compared with private space, residents prefer to implement GI in public space, where they have different preferences of GI measures. On urban scale, residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI in private space is characterized as "high in the inner city, low in the suburban areas", while the spatial difference is insignificant for public space. In addition, the factors affecting residents' willingness to participate in the implementation of GI are different in private and public space. The deterministic factors of GI participation are gender, education level, and floor for private space, while only include building age for public space, in addition to the common factors of free time, cognition of GI, perception of pluvial flood risk, supportive factors, and environment-improving factors that can influence both private and public space GI participation. Our analysis therefore provides valuable information for policymakers concerning nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation and urban sustainability.@en

The geomorphology of the Yangtze Estuary in the Changjiang River Delta in Eastern China has been the subject of extensive research. This study extends previous work to examine the influence of wind-waves on the mouth-bar, where about half of the river-borne material settles to the bed. The site is located just outside of Changjiang River mouth, which is meso-tidal and subject to seasonally varying river flows and wind-wave conditions. Modeling was performed with a coupled wave-current hydrodynamic model using TELEMAC and TOMAWAC and validated against observed data. Bottom Shear Stress (BSS) from river, tide and waves based on the numerical model output was used to infer the respective contribution to the evolution of the subaqueous delta. Our examination did not however extend to modeling the sediment transport or the morphological bed changes. The results suggest that (i) the dominance of river discharge is limited to an area inside the mouth, while outside, the mouth-bar is tide-wave dominant; (ii) considering just the tide, the currents on the shallow shoals are flood dominant and deep channels are ebb dominant, which induces continued accretion over the shallows and erodes the deeper parts of the mouth-bar until the tidal currents become too weak to transport sediment; (iii) whereas waves are very efficient at reshaping the shallow shoals, with the effect being subtly dependent on the depth distribution over the mouth-bar; (iv) the stability of shallow shoal morphology is highly dependent on the presence of seasonal wind-waves and characterized as “summer storing and winter erosion” while deep channels perform like corridors of water and sediment, exporting sediment all year round. The nature of the mouth-bar response has important implications for coastal management, such as the ongoing deep water channel maintenance, reclamations and coastal defense measures.

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