Scenario-based extreme flood risk of residential buildings and household properties in Shanghai

Abstract

Extreme flooding usually causes huge losses of residential buildings and household properties, which is critical to flood risk analysis and flood resilience building in Shanghai. We developed a scenario-based multidisciplinary approach to analyze the exposure, losses and risks of residential buildings and household properties, and their spatial patterns at the neighborhood committee level in Shanghai, based on extreme storm flood scenarios of 1/200, 1/500, 1/1000 and 1/5000-year. Our findings show that the inundation area of the residential buildings caused by a 1/200-year storm flood reaches 24.9 km², and the total loss of residential buildings and household properties is 29.7 billion CNY (Chinese Yuan) (or 4.4 billion USD), while the inundation area of residential buildings and the total loss increases up to 162.4 km² and 366.0 billion CNY (or 54.2 billion USD), respectively for a 1/5000-year storm flood. The estimated average annual loss (AAL) of residential buildings and household properties for Shanghai is 590 million CNY/year (or 87.4 million USD/year), with several hot spots distributed around the main urban area and on the bank of the Hangzhou Bay. Among sixteen districts, Pudong has the highest exposure and annual expected loss, while the inner city is also subject to extreme flooding with an AAL up to near half of the total. An analysis of flood risk in each of 209 subdistricts/towns finds that those most vulnerable to storm flooding are concentrated in Pudong, Jiading, Baoshan Districts and the inner city. Our work can provide meaningful information for risk-sensitive urban planning and resilience building in Shanghai. The methodology can also be used for risk analysis in other coastal cities facing the threat of storm flooding.