Future material demand for global silicon-based PV modules under net-zero emissions target until 2050

Abstract

The surge in global solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment as a measure to combat climate change is undeniable. However, this growth comes with its own set of challenges, particularly concerning the materials required for silicon-based PV modules. In this study, we quantify future material demand for silicon-based PV modules, considering technological advancements in PV module efficiency and material intensity. The annual material demand is projected to increase significantly for indium (38–286 times), silver (4–27 times), and other materials (2–20 times) over the period from 2022 to 2050, depending on PV deployment scenarios. Indium and silver demand are notably influenced by PV technology choice. Cumulative indium demand during 2022–2050 could range from 0 kt (for 100 % passivated emitter and rear contact or tunnel oxide passivated contact PV) to 209 kt (for 100 % perovskite-silicon four-terminal tandem PV). Cumulative silver demand during the same period could vary from 144 kt (for 100 % passivated emitter and rear contact PV) to 1121 kt (for 100 % silicon heterojunction PV). One promising approach to mitigate the increasing demand for primary materials is closed-loop recycling. By implementing efficient PV collection and recycling processes, cumulative primary material demand could be reduced by 10 % to 30 % between 2022 and 2050.