The world population is growing and therewith facing a lot of problems, such as a growing energy demand and climate change. These problems force society to make a transition, from a system driven by fossil raw materials to a sustainability-based system. Hydrogen can play a part in shifting from fossil fuels to more sustainable energy flows, as a renewable energy carrier, to decrease the CO2 emissions. However, the major obstacle of hydrogen use is the low volumetric energy density at room temperature and atmospheric pressure. Therefore, hydrogen must be compressed, liquefied or attached to a carrier to use it for storage or transportation purposes. The most cost-effective method to import hydrogen is yet unknown, and therefore a better understanding of the costs of the hydrogen supply chains are essential. The objective of this research is to: (1) understand the different costs for each individual element of the supply chain, (2) design a hydrogen supply chain that integrates the individual elements into a single framework to be able to compare the different carriers to each other and (3) create a more profound perspective on the investment decisions for a hydrogen import terminal. A case study for the port of Rotterdam is performed to validate the operation of the general supply chain for a specific case, resulting in a more in-depth understanding of the import terminal. This research covers four hydrogen carriers: ammonia, MCH, liquid- and gaseous hydrogen. The answer for objective one, is that for ammonia and MCH the import terminal costs are the highest, for liquid hydrogen the conversion plant costs and for gaseous hydrogen the transport costs. The hydrogen costs for ammonia, MCH and liquid hydrogen decreases as long as the demand increases, up until an amount of 500,000 t/y, whereby for gaseous hydrogen this decline holds for values beyond this amount as well. In general, for distances up to 3,500 nm gaseous hydrogen is preferred and for intermediate to long distance ammonia. The discrepancy in costs between ammonia, MCH and liquid hydrogen is almost negligible. Regarding the second objective, it can be stated that it makes no difference when choosing one carrier, or the other at ammonia, MCH and liquid hydrogen for intermediate to long distances. To conclude, the optimal hydrogen import supply chain for the estimated demand of Rotterdam is obtained from gaseous hydrogen exported from Tunisia with a cost price of 2.3 €/kg.

This study analyzes the financial impact of design guidelines used in the development of agribulk terminals and sets out to quantify the effect of uncertain throughput projections on a terminal’s business case. This was done through the use of a purposely-built computer model that translates traffic projections into a terminal design in an automated fashion. The allowable waiting time for vessels calling at the terminal has proven to be the design guideline that has the highest influence regarding project feasibility. The allowable waiting time was optimized by monetizing the negative consequences of long waiting times at the terminal using demurrage rates. Existing guidelines state that bulk terminal investments are typically based on maintaining an average ratio of waiting time to service time between 20% to 30%. However, results from the computer model show that, if a terminal were to incorporate the notion of demurrage rates into its business model, waiting times could be allowed to rise to 70% of berth service time, unlocking significant project value. Furthermore, by automating the translation of traffic projections into terminal designs, the financial repercussions of the uncertainty surrounding such projections becomes quantifiable. By simulating the project value of a terminal under varying economic scenarios, the user is shown how a spread is possible traffic development results in a certain spread in project value. The final aspect that has been analyzed within this study is the financial impact of modelling a terminal based on perfect foresight, a presumption that the traffic projections on which investments are based will always come true. Results show that modelling a terminal is such a manor overestimates a project’s value. Depending on the size of the project and the market’s volatility, this over-estimation is in the range of 3% (steady market growth) to 20% (volatile markets). An alternative modelling method has been developed which bases investment decisions on forecasted traffic volumes, which are updated as a simulation progresses. This forecast method slightly lowers over-estimation of project value by several percentage points.

This research is about the effects by climate change on the inland shipping sector of low discharges in the River Waal. Two different situations are investigated, one without any measure and one with canalization of the river. These two situations are compared with a zero variant where no navigation restrictions occur and therefore a so- called reference situation is also investigated. The focus is on the direct costs for the inland shipping sector due to navigation restrictions caused by insufficient water depth and canalization. Besides, the more integral picture is taken into account by the total costs due to canalization, which consist of the shipping costs due to canalization and the weir- and lock complex costs. For studying the effects of the different developments on the inland shipping sector an effect model is developed, validated and used.
The consequences in case of several scenarios for this canalization option are investigated to get insight in the range of possible outcomes. The scenario analysis shows that the shipping costs for all scenario combinations are lower in case of canalization than in case without any measure. Looking to the more integral picture, the total costs due to canalization are only in case of the most extreme climate scenario lower than the shipping costs in case without any measure. For all other scenarios, the total costs due to canalization are much higher. During the sensitivity analysis, the total costs due to canalization for various weir- and lock complex costs are investigated. The result is shown in the figure alongside to here. For total weir- and lock complex costs below 400 million Euro the feasibility of Waal canalization is quite high, which means that for many scenario combinations the costs due to canalization are lower than the costs in case without measure. However, for WLC costs between 400 million Euro and 900 million Euro the feasibility decreases to 20%. It is expected that 1000 million Euro is quite large for one complex and therefore it is assumed that a feasibility of at least 20% is reached.

Port planning is a complex multidisciplinary subject. To fulfill its functions, it is essential that the different elements of a port work together. The full potential of a terminal can only be reached when the wet infrastructure of a port (access channel, inner basins, turning circles) can keep up with the traffic load. From the literature study, it has become apparent that simulation tools have become increasingly popular for assessing the capacity of ports and waterways. However, the application has often been aimed at a specific case study and the existing models are not easily reusable for new applications. In this master thesis project, the assessment through a generic simulation tool of the effective capacity of the wet infrastructure of a port is investigated. The model considers the processes taking place from the point a vessel arrives at the entrance of the access channel until the start of the (un)loading procedures and the departure of the port until exiting the access channel. The analysis capabilities of the model are demonstrated by studying the Port of Hazira. The main processes of the model relate to vessels obtaining authorisation to sail towards a destination. To receive this authorisation, the vessels must find a moment when the correct weather conditions occur, the tidal elevation is adequate, the waterways are available and sufficient quay length is available. The authorisation is given in a dynamic way, depending on the dimensions of the vessels, waterways and quays. Based on their origin and destination, vessels can determine their route based on the shortest path available and waterways available depending on their vessel type. Once this is done, a vessel will construct a sailing plan by finding a suitable timeslot to through each section of the port. When doing so, a vessel takes into account the sailing plans of other vessels and the sailing rules that apply for each section. As a result, a vessel can construct a suitable sailing plan based on an origin and destination which can be applied to any port layout. During this study, it has become apparent that many processes should be included to properly determine the capacity of port. Simulation software offers the possibility of including all these processes and observe their interactions in order to locate bottlenecks more efficiently. Simio has proven to be able to incorporate all the required process to properly model the wet infrastructure of a port. However, it does not offer a user-friendly interface to handle different scenarios and facilitate the handling of both the input and output of the model. To this easier, an interface has been created with Scenario Navigator. This interface enable the storing and comparing of input parameters and results of different scenarios.