This research is about the effects by climate change on the inland shipping sector of low discharges in the River Waal. Two different situations are investigated, one without any measure and one with canalization of the river. These two situations are compared with a zero variant where no navigation restrictions occur and therefore a so- called reference situation is also investigated. The focus is on the direct costs for the inland shipping sector due to navigation restrictions caused by insufficient water depth and canalization. Besides, the more integral picture is taken into account by the total costs due to canalization, which consist of the shipping costs due to canalization and the weir- and lock complex costs. For studying the effects of the different developments on the inland shipping sector an effect model is developed, validated and used.
The consequences in case of several scenarios for this canalization option are investigated to get insight in the range of possible outcomes. The scenario analysis shows that the shipping costs for all scenario combinations are lower in case of canalization than in case without any measure. Looking to the more integral picture, the total costs due to canalization are only in case of the most extreme climate scenario lower than the shipping costs in case without any measure. For all other scenarios, the total costs due to canalization are much higher. During the sensitivity analysis, the total costs due to canalization for various weir- and lock complex costs are investigated. The result is shown in the figure alongside to here. For total weir- and lock complex costs below 400 million Euro the feasibility of Waal canalization is quite high, which means that for many scenario combinations the costs due to canalization are lower than the costs in case without measure. However, for WLC costs between 400 million Euro and 900 million Euro the feasibility decreases to 20%. It is expected that 1000 million Euro is quite large for one complex and therefore it is assumed that a feasibility of at least 20% is reached.