The European Union (EU) has set a 37.5% GHG reduction target in 2030 for the mobility sector, relative to 1990 levels. This requires increasing the share of zero-emission passenger vehicles, mainly in the form of electric vehicles (EVs). This study calculates future GHG emissions related to passenger vehicle manufacturing and use based on stated policy goals of EU Member States for EV promotion. Under these policies, by 2040 the stock of EVs would be about 73 times larger than those of 2020, contributing to a cumulative in-use emission reduction of 2.0 gigatons CO2-eq. Nevertheless, this stated EV adoption will not be sufficiently fast to reach the EU's GHG reduction targets, and some of the GHG environmental burdens may be shifted to the EV battery manufacturing countries. To achieve the 2030 reduction targets, the EU as a whole needs to accelerate the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles and transit to e-mobility at the pace of the most ambitious Member States, such that EVs can comprise at least 55% of the EU passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. An accelerated decarbonization of the electricity system will become the most critical prerequisite for minimizing GHG emissions from both EV manufacturing and in-use stages.

The Dutch national climate agreement (‘Klimaatakkoord’), stipulates a 49% decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, relative to the 1990 level. To accommodate this target, the passenger vehicles sector must reduce its GHG emissions by 30% in 2030, which likely will come about by replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles. In this study, a dynamic material flow model combined was applied to investigate the future demand for (and metabolism of) lithium, cobalt, and nickel within various scenarios of Dutch electric vehicle markets stemming from climate policy implementation. Our results show that by 2040 the demand for electric vehicles rapidly grows by an order of magnitude, which expands by two orders of magnitude the annual accumulation of these metals in the Netherlands when compared to the 2019 levels. Lithium and nickel demand will keep increasing through 2040, while the demand trend of cobalt will start to drop after 2030, due to changes in battery technology. Increasing the EV driving range and replacing EV batteries during an EV lifetime will increase the demand for these metals by 10%–19%. Conversely, extending the average battery lifetime to meet the vehicle lifetime could reduce the demand of these metals by 30%. Due to the low open-loop recycling of these metals, policies must seek to minimize their presence in the electric mobility sector, while also stimulating better recycling practices and infrastructure.