In the Netherlands land subsidence is a continuously ongoing process. Consequently, an increasing number of people and economic assets are exposed to subsidence, damage costs are soaring, and flood risk and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing. In some areas tipping points have already been reached, where current land-use can no longer be maintained without considerable costs, underlining the urgency to take action.

Together with a consortium consisting of universities, research institutes, governmental agencies, public and private partners we have developed a national, multidisciplinary research programme aiming to develop an integrative approach to achieve feasible, legitimate and sustainable solutions for managing the negative societal effects of land subsidence, connecting fundamental research on subsidence processes to socio-economic impact of subsidence and to governance and legal framework design.

The program is designed to co-create insights that help to effectively mitigate and adapt to subsidence within the Netherlands by making major improvements in measuring and modeling the processes and consequences of subsidence, identifying, developing and critically evaluating control measures and designing governance and legal approaches that facilitate their implementation. Hereto we will develop (a) new satellite-based technology to measure, attribute and monitor subsidence, (b) solid understanding of the interacting multiple processes contributing to total subsidence, (c) sophisticated physical and economic numerical models to predict human-induced subsidence rates and impacts, and (d) implementation strategies that go beyond technical measures, to strengthen governance and financing capacities as well as legal frameworks. This fully integrated approach deals with all impacts of land subsidence on society and the economy.@en

How can the Netherlands adapt to sea level rise on the long term: maintain, advance or retreat? This article compares the results of seven plans and designs from a diverse group of scholars and professionals that offer very different answers to this question. This diversity broadens the options, which is vital in this stage. Both problem solving and design approaches are shown to be worthwhile, when grounded in coastal, landscape, and ecological dynamics as well as visions of the Netherlands in the far future.@en

We report the discovery of a 50,000-y-old birch tar-hafted flint tool found off the present-day coastline of The Netherlands. The production of adhesives and multicomponent tools is considered complex technology and has a prominent place in discussions about the evolution of human behavior. This find provides evidence on the technological capabilities of Neandertals and illuminates the currently debated conditions under which these technologies could be maintained. 14C-accelerator mass spectrometry dating and the geological provenance of the artifact firmly associates it with a host of Middle Paleolithic stone tools and a Neandertal fossil. The find was analyzed using pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, X-ray micro-computed tomography, and optical light microscopy. The object is a piece of birch tar, encompassing one-third of a flint flake. This find is from northwestern Europe and complements a small set of well-dated and chemically identified adhesives from Middle Paleolithic/Middle Stone Age contexts. Together with data from experiments and other Middle Paleolithic adhesives, it demonstrates that Neandertals mastered complex adhesive production strategies and composite tool use at the northern edge of their range. Thus, a large population size is not a necessary condition for complex behavior and technology. The mitigation of ecological risk, as demonstrated by the challenging conditions during Marine Isotope Stage 4 and 3, provides a better explanation for the transmission and maintenance of technological complexity.@en

Understanding of complex sedimentary records formed by transgressive systems is critical for hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation, and carbon capture and storage. This paper discusses the facies proportions and preservation of the Last Interglacial and Holocene transgressive systems tracts in the Netherlands and their applicability as a North Sea Basin analogue for the Early Jurassic Åre Formation in the Norwegian offshore. New and existing data from both (sub-)modern transgressive Rhine records were thoroughly reviewed from a sequence stratigraphic perspective, before volumetrics were calculated and longitudinal trends quantified at reservoir scale. Large differences between the Last Interglacial and Holocene transgressive systems were found: the volume of fluvial deposits is almost six times larger and the volume of organics nearly twenty times larger in the Holocene record than in the Last Interglacial record. In contrast, the volume of estuarine deposits in the Holocene record is only half of that of the Last Interglacial record. Remarkably, both records show similar averaged sediment-trapping rates of 8–9 km³/ka. Initial valley configuration and relative sea-level rise-rates during both transgressions were key controls on the volume and spatial arrangement of the transgressive deposits. Relative sea-level fall and river avulsion determined what amount of sediment was left preserved after completion of one interglacial-glacial cycle. Comparison of the Late Quaternary Rhine records with the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic Åre Formation in the Heidrun Field off mid-Norway, showed the potential of the (sub-)modern Rhine records as analogues for ancient stratigraphic records. Especially the transgressive Rhine sequence from the Last Interglacial provided remarkable similarities in facies proportions, preservability, autogenic processes and controlling forcings, ranging from metre-scale vertical-successions to kilometre-scale field-wide events for parts of the Åre Formation. The side-by-side availability of the truncated Last Interglacial and (still) fully preserved Holocene transgressive system proved to be an excellent natural laboratory to study the stratigraphic architecture and assess depositional trends and preservability over longer time scales (>100 ka). It nevertheless demonstrates that no ‘one-size-fits-all’ analogue exists, but that various other analogues are needed to solve the complex puzzle which the Åre Formation resembles.

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Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma^-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma^-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma^-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma^-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

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