This paper proposes a multilane traffic flow model based on the notions of conservation laws in Lagrangian coordinates. Both the mathematical formulation and the graphical representation are provided. A logit choice model is applied to describe drivers' lane choice probability. The lane changing rate is estimated by employing the Incremental Transfer (IT) principle and the lane choice probability model. The numerical implementation of the model in the case of two lanes is discussed. The simulation results reveal that the proposed Lagrangian model is able to describe lane changing dynamics of vehicle platoons; while the lane changing equilibrium curve at the macroscopic level is consistent with that from the multilane Eulerian model as well as the observed data on the highway.

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Urban travel times are rather variable as a result of a lot of stochastic factors both in traffic flows, signals, and other conditions on the infrastructure. However, the most common way both in literature and practice is to estimate or predict only expected travel times, not travel time distributions. By doing so, it fails to provide full insight into the travel time dynamics and variability on urban roads. Another limitation of this common approach is that the effect of traffic measures on travel time reliability cannot be evaluated. In this paper, an analytical travel time distribution model is presented especially for urban roads with fixed-time controlled intersections by investigating the underlying mechanisms of urban travel times. Different from mean travel time models or deterministic travel time models, the proposed model takes stochastic properties of traffic flow, stochastic arrivals and departures at intersections, and traffic signal coordination between adjacent intersections into account, and therefore, is able to capture the delay dynamics and uncertainty at intersections. The queue spillback phenomenon is explicitly taken into account by applying shockwave theory in a probabilistic way. The proposed model was further validated with both VISSIM simulation data and field GPS data collected in a Chinese city. The results demonstrate that the travel time distributions derived from the analytical model can well represent those from VISSIM simulation. The comparison with field GPS data shows that the model estimated link and trip travel time distributions can also represent the field travel time distributions, though a small discrepancy can be observed in both middle range travel times and higher travel times.

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The importance of travel time reliability in traffic management, control, and network design has received a lot of attention in the past decade. In this paper, a network travel time distribution model based on the Johnson curve system is proposed. The model is applied to field travel time data collected by Automated Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras. We further investigate the network-level travel time reliability by connecting the network reliability measures such as the weighted standard deviation of travel time rate and the weighted skewness of travel time rate distributions with network traffic characteristics (e.g., the network density). The weighting is done with respect to the number of signalized intersections on a trip. A clear linear relation between the weighted average travel time rate and the weighted standard deviation of travel time rate can be observed for different time periods with time-varying demand. Furthermore, both the weighted average travel time rate and the weighted standard deviation of travel time rate increase monotonically with network density. The empirical findings of the relation between network travel time reliability and network traffic characteristics can be possibly applied to assess traffic management and control measures to improve network travel time reliability.

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The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.

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It is widely accepted that travelers value both the reliability of travel time and its mean or expected value. Strategies for traffic signal control typically seek to optimize average travel times, although reliability is in general not explicitly taken into account. In this paper, we propose a new framework for evaluating the consequences of signal-control tactics on both reliability and expected values of travel time, based on an analytic model of travel time distribution. A genetic-algorithm-based approach is then employed to identify optimal multicriteria signal control strategies, including sensitivity analysis, to the relative weighting between reliability and expected value. We expose the properties of the proposed framework via an empirical case study of four alternative optimization approaches (the signal setting optimized with the traditional Webster's method, TRANSYT model, and the newly proposed model) under various traffic conditions. Results indicate that the newly proposed framework outperforms the alternative signal control strategies in terms of both travel-time variability and expected travel time.@en