Computational simulation models serve as powerful instruments for analysing complex systems, but individually they are often limited in representing systems of an interdisciplinary nature. This paper presents a multi-modelling project that takes the first steps towards an open generic solution of multi-model infrastructure (MMI). It aims to loosely couple individual independent (often already existing) models, facilitate model reuse and meaningful model interoperation in order to support integral decision-making in the Dutch energy transition.
The MMI is a minimal viable product collaboratively designed and developed by a diverse group of modellers and energy experts. It includes facilitating services such as software and methods that enable multi-modelling but not the individual independent models themselves. We share the vision, approach and initial outcomes of the project, in particular, give an overview of the multi-model platform architecture design and the three use cases (and multi-models) of marco, meso and micro scales developed to demonstrate the potential of MMI. We also discuss the lessons learnt and future work, with the intension to invite more research, debate and collaboration on topics of multi-modelling, in particular simulation model reuse and interoperation, and to form an even stronger and broader interdisciplinary community of multi-modellers. @en

The petrochemical industry is composed of several interconnected processes that use fossil-based feedstock for producing chemicals. These processes are typically geographically clustered and often belong to different parties. Reducing the environmental impacts of the petrochemical industry is not straightforward due to, on the one hand, their reliance on fossil fuels for energy and as a feedstock and, on the other hand, the significant level of interconnected energy and material flows among processes. Current methods for analyzing changes to existing processes cannot capture the multitude and level of interactions. The goal of this paper is to create a model of a petrochemical cluster and analyze its physical characteristics and performance. This paper addresses this goal by developing an assessment method that combines process simulations, multiplex graph analysis, and key performance indicators. The method is applied to a case study based on the petrochemical cluster in the Port of Rotterdam, resulting in a uniquely highly detailed model of a petrochemical cluster. The network analysis results show that only some of the processes are very interconnected. From the performance analysis, it can be observed that the olefins process is the most carbon-intense and has high CO₂ emissions. Additionally, the results showed the importance of considering existing interconnections when assessing the current performance of existing petrochemical clusters or the performance due to future changes to chemical processes. For instance, some changes would occur to an industrial cluster by introducing alternative carbon sources, such as biomass or CO₂.

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It is widely considered that the energy transition should be just, yet achieving this goal is a complex socio-technical process. Models serve as valuable tools to support decision-making in navigating these complexities. However, they are not adequately equipped to address justice considerations that are becoming central to energy transition planning. They are unable to provide support in decision spaces that are rich in normative uncertainties, with stakeholders holding differing interpretations of what a just energy transition is. While the importance of integrating justice into computational models is recognized, a significant gap remains in understanding how justice is and can be defined, interpreted, and implemented within these models or, in short, how justice can be operationalized. This paper addresses the gap by examining studies that use computational models for decision-support through the lens of the three tenets of energy justice: procedural, recognition, and distributive justice. We argue that operationalizing justice in energy transition modelling can take place both in the modeling process and with the enrichment of model logic. This paper emphasizes that discussions of justice in relation to models cannot be separated from the design of effective participatory modelling settings that stem from a careful evaluation of the justice requirements of stakeholders in the decision space. We propose a framework that enables modellers and model users to be more explicit about their normative interpretations of justice and derive modelling processes and model requirements that represent diverse justice perceptions in the decision space. By doing this, models can refrain from propagating only dominant ideas of justice and instead actively incorporate otherwise neglected perceptions, to ensure that the decision-support facilitates a just energy transition.@en

The petrochemical industry needs to reduce the use of fossil fuel as carbon feedstock to reduce its CO2 emissions. Several alternative carbon sources (ACSs), such as biomass, CO2 and plastic waste are being proposed to replace fossil carbon. As each of these ACS process routes has its tradeoffs, it is essential to identify the defossilization pathways that will have the most significant impact. In this work, a superstructure-based optimization approach is presented that can be used to assess defossilization pathways in existing petrochemical clusters. The small case study shows that CO₂ is a promising ACS to replace fossil fuel as the main carbon source but requires a large amount of green hydrogen and significant modifications to the existing cluster.

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Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS), whether simple toy models or complex data-driven ones, is regularly applied in various domains to study the system-level patterns arising from individual behaviour and interactions. However, ABMS still faces diverse challenges such as modelling more representative agents or improving computational efficiency. Research shows that machine learning (ML) techniques, when used in ABMS can address such challenges. Yet, the ABMS literature is still marginally leveraging the benefits of ML. One reason is the vastness of the ML domain, which makes it difficult to choose the appropriate ML technique to overcome a specific modelling challenge. This paper aims to bring ML more within reach of the ABMS community. We first conduct a structured literature review to investigate how the ABMS process uses ML techniques. We focus specifically on articles where ML is applied for the structural specifications of models such as agent decision-making and behaviour, rather than just for analysing output data. Given that modelling challenges are mainly linked to the purpose a model aims to serve (e.g., behavioural accuracy is required for predictive models), we frame our analysis within different modelling purposes. Our results show that Reinforcement Learning algorithms may increase the accuracy of behavioural modelling. Moreover, Decision Trees, and Bayesian Networks are common techniques for data pre-processing of agent behaviour. Based on the literature review results, we propose guidelines for purposefully integrating ML in ABMS. We conclude that ML techniques are specifically fit for currently underrepresented modelling purposes of social learning and illustration; they can be used in a transparent and interpretable manner. @en

Fast growth of cities decreases the quality of life in these places. In response, Municipalities install policies aiming to improve local livability. While literature suggests social structures to have a defining impact on policy effectiveness, current evaluation metrics are not able to take this into account. This paper presents the Social Neighbourhood model, an agent-based model used to simulate and explore how livability changes in a neighbourhood given various social structures and policies. The model is applied to a neighbourhood in The Hague, Netherlands. The main result of the modelling experiments is that social structures have a very strong influence on whether or not a policy to improve livability is effective. Three hypotheses, concerning this relationship between social structures, livability, and policy interventions are drawn up as a starting point for future research.@en

The reliance of the petrochemical industry on fossil-based sources will need to be reduced by the introduction of Alternative carbon sources (ACS). Introducing ACS in a petrochemical cluster will require existing processes to be modified or replaced, potentially affecting other chemical processes within the cluster due to existing material and energy interconnections. Therefore, it is important to understand the current level of interconnections, functioning, and performance of the petrochemical cluster before introducing ACS. In this work, a representative cluster model based on the petrochemical cluster of the Port of Rotterdam was developed and considered as a case study. This model was analyzed using complex network analysis and environmental and technical key performance indicators. The selected key performance indicators (KPIs) provide insight into the performance of a petrochemical cluster, while the network properties give an understanding of the exchange of material and energy in an industrial cluster.@en

Climate change intensifies the likelihood of extreme flood events worldwide, amplifying the potential for compound flooding. This evolving scenario represents an escalating risk, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies across society. Vital to effective response are models that evaluate damages, costs, and benefits of adaptation strategies, encompassing non-linearities and feedback between anthropogenic and natural systems. While flood risk modeling has progressed, limitations endure, including inadequate stakeholder representation and indirect risks such as business interruption and diminished tax revenues. To address these gaps, we propose an innovative version of the Climate-economy Regional Agent-Based model that integrates a dynamic, rapidly expanding agglomeration economy populated by interacting households and firms with extreme flood events. Through this approach, feedback loops and cascading effects generated by flood shocks are delineated within a socio-economic system of boundedly-rational agents. By leveraging extensive behavioral data, our model incorporates a risk layering strategy encompassing bottom-up and top-down adaptation, spanning individual risk reduction to insurance. Calibrated to resemble a research-rich coastal megacity in China, our model demonstrates how synergistic adaptation actions at all levels effectively combat the mounting climate threat. Crucially, the integration of localized risk management with top-down approaches offers explicit avenues to address both direct and indirect risks, providing significant insights for constructing climate-resilient societies.

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Bioregenerative life support systems (BLSS) are vital for long-duration and remote space missions to increase mission sustainability. These systems break down human waste materials into nutrients and CO2 for plants and other edible organisms, which in turn provide food, fresh water, and oxygen for astronauts. The central idea is to create a materially closed loop, which can significantly reduce mission mass and volume by cutting down or even eliminating disposable waste. In most BLSS studies only a fraction of the resources, such as food, are provided by the system itself, with the rest taken on board at departure or provided through resupply missions. However, for autonomous long-duration space missions without any possibility of resupply, a BLSS that generates all resources with minimal or no material loss, is essential. The goal of this study is to develop a stoichiometric model of a conceptually fully closed BLSS that provides all the metabolic needs of the crew and organisms. The MELiSSA concept of the European Space Agency is used as reference system, consisting of five interconnected compartments, each inhabited by different types of organisms. A detailed review of publicly available MELiSSA literature from 1989 to 2022 revealed that no existing stoichiometric model met the study’s requirements. Therefore, a new stoichiometric model was developed to describe the cycling of the elements C, H, O, and N through all five MELiSSA compartments and one auxiliary compartment. A compact set of chemical equations with fixed coefficients was established for this purpose. A spreadsheet model simulates the flow of all relevant compounds for a crew of six. By balancing the dimensions of the different compartments, a high degree of closure is attained at steady state, with 12 out of 14 compounds exhibiting zero loss, and oxygen and CO2 displaying only minor losses between iterations. This is the first stoichiometric model of a MELiSSA-inspired BLSS that describes a continuous provision of 100% of the food and oxygen needs of the crew. The stoichiometry serves as the foundation of an agent-based model of the MELiSSA loop, as part of the Evolving Asteroid Starships (E|A|S) research project.@en

Cities consume almost 80 percent of world’s energy and account for 60 percent of all the emissions of carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other greenhouse gases (GHG). The ongoing rapid urbanization will further increase GHG emissions of cities. The quantification of the environmental impact generated in cities is an important step to curb the impact. In fact, quantifying the consumption activities taking place inside a city, if differentiated by socioeconomic and demographic groups, can provide important insights for sustainable-consumption policies. However, the lack of high-resolution data related to these activities makes it difficult to quantify urban GHG emissions (as well as other impacts). This paper presents a methodology that can quantify the carbon footprint of households in cities using consumption data from a national or European level, where the resource consumption is linked to socioeconomic attributes of a population. The methodology is applied to analyzing the environmental impact by household resource consumption in the city of The Hague in the Netherlands. The key insights reveal potential intervention areas regarding resource consumption categories and demographic groups that can be targeted to reduce GHG emissions due to consumption-driven activities in the city.@en

This paper presents a theoretical framework for a new concept of organizational control, that stimulates organizational change and adaptation. It introduces Participatory Control Systems (PCS) as a distinct type of control based on the complex adaptive system literature. These control systems are fundamentally different from the traditional notion of (management) control. Building on the notion of complex systems and the concept of social learning, PCS increase organizational adaptivity by enabling and facilitating social learning processes that may emerge to transformational change over time. To illustrate the PCS concept in practice, three examples are given in this paper. Moreover, some key implications for internal auditors and suggestions for future research are provided.@en

Energy communities are gaining momentum in the context of the energy transition. Given the distributed and collective action nature of energy communities, energy security of these local energy systems is more than just security of supply and related to issues such as affordability and acceptability of energy to members of the community. We build an agent-based model of energy communities to explore their security challenges. The security dimensions we consider are availability, affordability, accessibility and acceptability, which are referred to as the 4As. The results confirmed that there is always a trade-off between all four dimensions and that although it is difficult to achieve a high energy security performance, it is feasible. Results also showed that among factors influencing energy security, the investment of the community plays the biggest role.@en

Industrial Symbiosis Networks (ISNs) consist of firms that exchange residual materials and energy locally, in order to gain economic, environmental and/or social advantages. In practice, ISNs regularly fail when partners leave and the recovery of residual streams ends. Regarding the current societal need for a shift towards sustainability, it is undesirable that ISNs should fail. Failures of ISNs may be caused by actor behaviour that leads to unanticipated economic losses. In this paper, we explore the effect of these behaviours on ISN robustness by using an agent-based model (ABM). The constructed model is based on insights from both literature and participatory modelling in three real-world cases. It simulates the implementation of synergies for local waste exchange and compost production. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was used to model agent behaviour in time-dependent bilateral negotiations and synergy evaluation processes. We explored model behaviour with and without TPB logic across a range of possible TPB input variables. The simulation results show how the modelled planned behaviour affects the cash flow outcomes of the social agents and the robustness of the network. The study contributes to the theoretical development of industrial symbiosis research by providing a quantitative model of all ISN implementation stages, in which various behavioural patterns of entrepreneurs are included. It also contributes to practice by offering insights on how network dynamics and robustness outcomes are not only related to context and ISN design, but also to actor behaviour. @en

The viability of novel network-level circular business models (CBMs) is debated heavily. Many companies are hesitant to implement CBMs in their daily practice, because of the various roles, stakes and opinions and the resulting uncertainties. Testing novel CBMs prior to implementation is needed. Some scholars have used digital simulation models to test elements of business models, but this this has not yet been done systematically for CBMs. To address this knowledge gap, this paper presents a systematic iterative method to explore and improve CBMs prior to actual implementation by means of agent-based modelling and simulation. An agent-based model (ABM) was co-created with case study participants in three Industrial Symbiosis networks. The ABM was used to simulate and explore the viability effects of two CBMs in different scenarios. The simulation results show which CBM in combination with which scenario led to the highest network survival rate and highest value captured. In addition, we were able to explore the influence of design options and establish a design that is correlated to the highest CBM viability. Based on these findings, concrete proposals were made to further improve the CBM design, from company level to network level. This study thus contributes to the development of systematic CBM experimentation methods. The novel approach provided in this work shows that agent-based modelling and simulation is a powerful method to study and improve circular business models prior to implementation.@en

The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO2-certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.

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Flood adaptation measures implemented at the household level play an important role in reducing communities' vulnerability. The aim of this study is to enhance the current modelling practices of human-flood interaction to draw new insights for flood risk management (FRM) policy design. The paper presents a coupled agent-based and flood model for the case of Hamburg, Germany, to explore how individual adaptation behaviour is influenced by flood event scenarios, economic incentives and shared and individual strategies. Simulation results show that a unique trajectory of adaptation measures and flood damages emerges from different flood event series. Another finding is that providing subsidies increases the number of coping households in the long run. Households' social network also has a strong influence on their coping behaviour. The paper also highlights the role of simple measures such as adapted furnishings, which do not incur any monetary cost, in reducing households' vulnerability and preventing millions of euros of contents damages. Generally, we demonstrate that coupled agent-based and flood models can potentially be used as decision support tools to examine the role of household adaptation measures in flood risk management. Although the findings of the paper are case-specific, the improved modelling approach shows the potential to be applied in testing policy levers and strategies considering heterogeneous individual behaviours.

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Finding leverage points for sustainability transformation of industrial and infrastructure systems is challenging, given that transformation is emergent from the complex interactions among socio-technical system elements over time within a specific social, technical and geographical context. Participatory multi-modelling, in which modellers and stakeholders collaborate to develop multiple interacting models to support a shared understanding of systems, is a promising approach to support sustainability transformations. The participatory process of modeling can serve as a leverage point by facilitating social learning amongst stakeholders, in which models can function as boundary objects that facilitate dialogue between stakeholders from different social worlds. We propose that participatory multi-modeling allows for the creation of a boundary object ecology, which involves a set of interacting and co-evolving boundary objects emerging throughout the modeling process. To explore this, we analyse the participatory multi-modelling process in the Windmaster project in the Rotterdam Port industrial cluster to understand which design choices were key to the creation of boundary objects. Our analysis shows that two types of design choices were key: design choices that enabled translations between participants, and those between participants and their organisation. We conclude that conceptualising participatory multi-modelling as a process of an evolving boundary object ecology, creating and adapting multiple interacting boundary objects provides a novel perspective that is useful for analysis and design of future participatory multi-modeling processes.

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Nederland is op weg naar een CO2-neutrale samenleving in 2050. Zo ook het haven industrieel cluster van Rotterdam (HIC). Om dat te bereiken zal de energievoorziening de komende jaren moeten veranderen. Deze verandering heeft een grote impact op de energieinfrastructuur. In het Windmaster project wordt gefocust op de huidige aardgas-,H2- en elektriciteits infrastructuur binnen het HIC. Het plannen van infrastructuur kent lange implementatie- en afschrijvingstermijnen waardoor het voor de infrabeheerders bij wijze van spreken vandaag 2030 is en overmorgen 2050. Gezien de vele onzekerheden rondom de toekomstige energieconsumptie en -productie in het HIC en de rest van Europa vraagt dit om een nieuw investeringsparadigma. Een paradigma dat moet voorkomen dat groene industrie in de toekomst niet gefaciliteerd kan worden. Dat een nieuw investeringsparadigma nodig is, blijkt onder andere uit het feit dat zonneparken in het noorden van het land niet aangesloten kunnen worden op het elektriciteitsnet als gevolg van capaciteitsknelpunten. Zonder verandering in het investeringsparadigma is de kans groot dat andere groene industrie in de toekomst niet kan worden aangesloten op de benodigde energie-infrastructuur en als gevolg daarvan zich niet kan vestigen in het HIC. Het hoofddoel van het Windmaster project is om te onderzoeken of een participatieve multimodel aanpak inzicht kan creëren in welk investeringsbeleid tot een robuuste adaptieve investeringsstrategie voor de energie-infrastructuur leidt. Het investeringsbeleid is het reguleringskader waarbinnen infrabeheerders haar strategisch netplanningsproces moeten uitvoeren. Dit beleid is bepalend voor de uiteindelijke ontwikkeling van transportcapaciteit in energie-infrastructuur. Binnen het Windmaster project is samen met de stakeholders (TU Delft, Siemens, TenneT, Stedin, Gasunie, Havenbedrijf Rotterdam, Provincie Zuid-Holland, Deltalinqs en ISPT) gewerkt aan een multi-model dat inzicht geeft in de effectiviteit van investeringsbeleid voor de ontwikkeling van energie-infrastructuur. Het multi-model is tot stand gekomen door intensieve participatie van alle stakeholders tijdens verschillende workshops en interviews. De gekozen aanpak is verwant aan de modelleringsaanpak die het adaptief watermanagement beleid voor het Nederlandse Deltaprogramma ondersteunt1. Deze aanpak kenmerkt zich door het verkennen van veel verschillende mogelijke toekomsten en het ontwerpen van adaptief beleid op deze mogelijke toekomsten. De kernfunctionaliteit van het ontwikkelde multi-model bestaat uit een scenariogeneratie model en een geïntegreerd gedrags- en technisch model. Het eerste model is in staat om op een gestructureerde manier een grote hoeveelheid verschillende energietransitiepadscenario’s te genereren. Het laatste model representeert het strategisch netplanningsproces van infrabeheerders dat onder invloed van investeringsbeleid tot investeringen in de energie-infrastructuur leidt. Met het ontwikkelde multi-model kan de effectiviteit van verschillend investeringsbeleid worden onderzocht. Daarnaast leiden de simulaties met het multi-model tot identificatie van robuuste no regret investeringen. @en

Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity in all stakeholders engaged in a social learning process. Simulation models can support such processes by providing a boundary object or negotiating artifact that allows stakeholders to deliberate through a multi-interpretable, consistent, transparent, and verifiable representation of reality. The challenge is how to structure the transdisciplinary process of involving stakeholders in simulation modeling and how to know when such a process can be labeled as transformative. There is a proliferation of approaches for this across disciplines, of which this article identifies Group Model Building, Companion Modeling, Challenge-and-Reconstruct Learning, and generic environmental modeling as the most prominent. This article systematically reviews relevant theories, terminology, principles, and methodologies across these four approaches to build a framework that can facilitate further learning. The article also provides a typology of approaches to modeling with stakeholders. It distinguishes transformative approaches that involve stakeholders from representative, instrumental and nominal forms. It is based on an extensive literature review, supported by twenty-three semi-structured interviews with participatory and non-participatory modelers. The article brings order into the abundance of conceptions of transformation, the role of simulation models in transformative change processes, the role of participation of stakeholders, and what type of approaches to modeling with stakeholders are befitting in the development of policy pathways.

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