The growing global energy demand increases the need for renewable energy sources. This increase requires land to be occupied, competing with other activities such as agriculture and residency. In such a situation, renewable energy sources expand to other environments like the ocean. However, this new scene poses some challenges, such as the effect of waves on photovoltaic (PV) performance. Consequently, this study aims to evaluate the power output of an Offshore Floating PV (OFPV) system located in the North Sea considering the effect of the waves. A 3D mechanical movement model, which has been validated with data from a real system, is developed for this purpose. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine how the size of fluctuations depends on the dimensions of the floater. The main outcome is that a heavy and wide floater aligned with the most common wind direction reduces angle variations. Results from DC power simulations show that sea fluctuations have a negative yet small influence on PV power production. Over the course of the year, these losses amount to just 0.1% of the annual energy yield. However, a hypothetical optimally-tilted PV system placed on water would still generate 14.6% more DC power output than the floating one. On the AC side, laboratory experiments show that these oscillations negatively affect the inverter efficiency during rough sea conditions by a decrease of over 2 percentage points compared to a still system.

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Due to the inherent uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) energy generation, an accurate power forecasting is essential to ensure a reliable operation of PV systems and a safe electric grid. Machine learning (ML) techniques have gained popularity on the development of this task due to its increased accuracy. Most literature, however, focuses only on less than 5 PV systems during training process, which does not ensure generalization to unseen systems. When in presence of a large feet, regional forecasts are the norm. Nevertheless, none of these approaches are usable when it comes to monitoring residential PV systems. In this work, we propose a single ML model that is able to predict the individual power of a large fleet of 1102 PV systems. XGBoost algorithm was selected as the most suitable algorithm for the task of PV yield nowcasting due to its performance and ease of use. This algorithm obtains Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.877 kWh (considering an average system size of 4.44 kWp) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 23% for hourly data aggregated to daily values. XGBoost predictions for individual PV systems are on average two times better than currently used commercial software. We discuss the lack of a suitable loss function that can combine absolute and relative errors for residential PV yield forecasting. We also point out the lack of an adequate metric to compute the error made on the predictions and provide hints on developing a suitable one.

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The share of solar energy in the electricity mix increases year after year. Knowing the production of photovoltaic (PV) power at each instant of time is crucial for its integration into the grid. However, due to meteorological phenomena, PV power output can be uncertain and continuously varying, which complicates yield prediction. In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have entered the world of PV power forecasting to help increase the accuracy of predictions. Researchers have seen great potential in this approach, creating a vast literature on the topic. This paper intends to identify the most popular approaches and the gaps in this discipline. To do so, a representative part of the literature consisting of 100 publications is classified based on different aspects such as ML family, location of PV systems, number of systems considered, features, etc. Via this classification, the main trends and gaps can be highlighted while offering advice to researchers interested in the topic.@en

Thin films of transition metal oxides such as molybdenum oxide (MoO_x) are attractive for application in silicon heterojunction solar cells for their potential to yield large short-circuit current density. However, full control of electrical properties of thin MoO_x layers must be mastered to obtain an efficient hole collector. Here, we show that the key to control the MoO_x layer quality is the interface between the MoO_x and the hydrogenated intrinsic amorphous silicon passivation layer underneath. By means of ab initio modelling, we demonstrate a dipole at such interface and study its minimization in terms of work function variation to enable high performance hole transport. We apply this knowledge to experimentally tailor the oxygen content in MoO_x by plasma treatments (PTs). PTs act as a barrier to oxygen diffusion/reaction and result in optimal electrical properties of the MoO_x hole collector. With this approach, we can thin down the MoO_x thickness to 1.7 nm and demonstrate short-circuit current density well above 40 mA/cm² and a champion device exhibiting 23.83% conversion efficiency.

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We introduce a novel simulation tool capable of calculating the energy yield of a PV system based on its fundamental material properties and using self-consistent models. Thus, our simulation model can operate without measurements of a PV device. It combines wave and ray optics and a dedicated semiconductor simulation to model the optoelectronic PV device properties resulting in the IV-curve. The system surroundings are described via spectrally resolved ray tracing resulting in a cell resolved irradiance distribution, and via the fluid dynamics-based thermal model, in the individual cell temperatures. A lumped-element model is used to calculate the IV-curves of each solar cell for every hour of the year. These are combined factoring in the interconnection to obtain the PV module IV-curves, which connect to the inverter for calculating the AC energy yield. In our case study, we compare two types of 2 terminal perovskite/silicon tandem modules with STC PV module efficiencies of 27.7% and 28.6% with a reference c-Si module with STC PV module efficiency of 20.9%. In four different climates, we show that tandem PV modules operate at 1–1.9 °C lower yearly irradiance weighted average temperatures compared to c-Si. We find that the effect of current mismatch is significantly overestimated in pure optical studies, as they do not account for fill factor gains. The specific yields in kWh/kWp of the tandem PV systems are between −2.7% and +0.4% compared to the reference c-Si system in all four simulated climates. Thus, we find that the lab performance of the simulated tandem PV system translates from the laboratory to outdoors comparable to c-Si systems.

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Machine learning is arising as a major solution for the photovoltaic (PV) power prediction. Despite the abundant literature, the effect of climate on yield predictions using machine learning is unknown. This work aims to find climatic trends by predicting the power of 48 PV systems around the world, equally divided into four climates. An extensive data gathering process is performed and open-data sources are prioritized. A website www.tudelft.nl/open-source-pv-power-databases has been created with all found open data sources for future research. Five machine learning algorithms and a baseline one have been trained for each PV system. Results show that the performance ranking of the algorithms is independent of climate. Systems in dry climates depict on average the lowest Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) of 47.6 %, while those in tropical present the highest of 60.2 %. In mild and continental climates the NRMSE is 51.6 % and 54.5 %, respectively. When using a model trained in one climate to predict the power of a system located in another climate, on average systems located in cold climates show a lower generalization error, with an additional NRMSE as low as 5.6 % depending on the climate of the test set. Robustness evaluations were also conducted that increase the validity of the results.

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Monitoring residential scale photovoltaic (PV) systems is important for maximizing the energy yield and detecting malfunctions. Analytical-based approaches are not reliable in these systems because of the lack of on-site measurements and detailed PV system specifications. In this paper, a collaborative approach is proposed which does not depend on weather data but on similar PV systems. Based on the so-called performance-to-peer approach, the aim of this work is to improve this baseline model by adding PV systems characteristics and by optimizing with machine learning techniques. The methodology has been tested in a fleet of more than 12,000 PV systems located in the Netherlands with up to 7 years of data per system. The proposed model achieves an average (Formula presented.) of 94.1% and a NRMSE of 0.05, outperforming in terms of (Formula presented.) the baseline model by 1.4 points, and the analytical approach by 3.8. The data requirements of this model are not high: With 1,700 years of PV system data with daily resolution, the maximum performance can be achieved as long as a minimum of 6 months of data per system and 100 PV systems are considered. The application of this model for fault detection and categorization has also been shown. The proposed approach has shown its strengths with respect to other methods through its ability of distinguishing between system mismatch and actual fault and of adapting to new situations via retraining.

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Molybdenum oxide (MoO_x) is attractive for applications as hole-selective contact in silicon heterojunction solar cells for its transparency and relatively high work function. However, the integration of MoO_x stacked on intrinsic amorphous silicon (i)a-Si:H layer usually exhibits some issues that are still not fully solved resulting in degradation of electrical properties. Here, we propose a novel approach to enhance the electrical properties of (i)a-Si:H/MoO_x contact. We manipulate the (i)a-Si:H interface via plasma treatment (PT) before MoO_x deposition minimizing the electrical degradation without harming the optical response. Furthermore, by applying the optimized PT, we can reduce the MoO_x thickness down to 3.5 nm with both open-circuit voltage and fill factor improvements. Our findings suggest that the PT mitigates the decrease of the effective work function of the MoO_x (WF_MoOx) thin layer when deposited on (i)a-Si:H. To support our hypothesis, we carry out electrical simulations inserting a dipole at the (i)a-Si:H/MoO_x interface accounting the attenuation of WF_MoOx caused by both MoO_x thickness and dipole. Our calculations confirm the experimental trends and thus provide deep insight in critical transport issues. Temperature-dependent J-V measurements demonstrate that the use of PT improves the energy alignment for an efficient hole transport.

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Electrical simulations show that the dipole formed at (i)a-Si:H/MoOx interface can explain electrical performance degradation. We experimentally manipulate this interface by a plasma treatment (PT) to mitigate the dipole strength without harming the optical response. The optimal PT + MoOx stack results in strongly improved electrical parameters as compared to the one featuring only MoOx and to the silicon heterojunction reference cell. Optical simulations and experimentally measured currents suggest that the additional PT is responsible of very limited parasitic absorption overcompensated by the thinner MoOx used (3.5 nm) and by the lower losses in the (i)a-Si:H layer underneath.

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