In September 2015, the Volkswagen Group (VW) admitted the use of 'defeat devices' designed to lower emissions measured during VW vehicle testing for regulatory purposes. Globally, 11 million cars sold between 2008 and 2015 are affected, including about 2.6 million in Germany. On-road emissions tests have yielded mean on-road NO _x emissions for these cars of 0.85 g km ^-1 , over four times the applicable European limit of 0.18 g km ^-1 . This study estimates the human health impacts and costs associated with excess emissions from VW cars driven in Germany. A distribution of on-road emissions factors is derived from existing measurements and combined with sales data and a vehicle fleet model to estimate total excess NO _x emissions. These emissions are distributed on a 25 by 28 km grid covering Europe, using the German Federal Environmental Protection Agency's (UBA) estimate of the spatial distribution of NO _x emissions from passenger cars in Germany. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model to predict the corresponding increase in population exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone in the European Union, Switzerland, and Norway, and a set of concentration-response functions to estimate mortality outcomes in terms of early deaths and of life-years lost. Integrated over the sales period (2008-2015), we estimate median mortality impacts from VW excess emissions in Germany to be 1200 premature deaths in Europe, corresponding to 13 000 life-years lost and 1.9 billion EUR in costs associated with life-years lost. Approximately 60% of mortality costs occur outside Germany. For the current fleet, we estimate that if on-road emissions for all affected VW vehicles in Germany are reduced to the applicable European emission standard by the end of 2017, this would avert 29 000 life-years lost and 4.1 billion 2015 EUR in health costs (median estimates) relative to a counterfactual case with no recall.

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The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has alleged that Volkswagen Group of America (VW) violated the Clean Air Act (CAA) by developing and installing emissions control system 'defeat devices' (software) in model year 2009-2015 vehicles with 2.0 litre diesel engines. VW has admitted the inclusion of defeat devices. On-road emissions testing suggests that in-use NO_x emissions for these vehicles are a factor of 10 to 40 above the EPA standard. In this paper we quantify the human health impacts and associated costs of the excess emissions. We propagate uncertainties throughout the analysis. A distribution function for excess emissions is estimated based on available in-use NO_x emissions measurements. We then use vehicle sales data and the STEP vehicle fleet model to estimate vehicle distance traveled per year for the fleet. The excess NO_x emissions are allocated on a 50 km grid using an EPA estimate of the light duty diesel vehicle NO_x emissions distribution. We apply a GEOS-Chem adjoint-based rapid air pollution exposure model to produce estimates of particulate matter and ozone exposure due to the spatially resolved excess NO_x emissions. A set of concentration-response functions is applied to estimate mortality and morbidity outcomes. Integrated over the sales period (2008-2015) we estimate that the excess emissions will cause 59 (95% CI: 10 to 150) early deaths in the US. When monetizing premature mortality using EPA-recommended data, we find a social cost of ∼$450m over the sales period. For the current fleet, we estimate that a return to compliance for all affected vehicles by the end of 2016 will avert ∼130 early deaths and avoid ∼$840m in social costs compared to a counterfactual case without recall.

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Aircraft movements on the airport surface are responsible for CO2 emissions that contribute to climate change and other emissions that affect air quality and human health. While the potential for optimizing aircraft surface movements to minimize CO2 emissions has been assessed, the implications of CO2 emissions minimization for air quality have not been quantified. In this paper, we identify conditions in which there is a tradeoff between CO2 emissions and population exposure to O3 and secondary PM2.5 - i.e. where decreasing fuel burn (which is directly proportional to CO2 emissions) results in increased exposure. Fuel burn and emissions are estimated as a function of thrust setting for five common gas turbine engines at 34 US airports. Regional air quality impacts, which are dominated by ozone and secondary PM2.5, are computed as a function of airport location and time using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model. Tradeoffs between CO2 emissions and population exposure to PM2.5 and O3 occur between 2-18% and 5-60% of the year, respectively, depending on airport location, engine type, and thrust setting. The total duration of tradeoff conditions is 5-12 times longer at maximum thrust operations (typical for takeoff) relative to 4% thrust operations (typical for taxiing). Per kilogram of additional fuel burn at constant thrust setting during tradeoff conditions, reductions in population exposure to PM2.5 and O3 are 6-13% and 32-1060% of the annual average (positive) population exposure per kilogram fuel burn, where the ranges encompass the medians over the 34 airports. For fuel burn increases due to thrust increases (i.e. for constant operating time), reductions in both PM2.5 and O3 exposure are 1.5-6.4 times larger in magnitude than those due to increasing fuel burn at constant thrust (i.e. increasing operating time). Airports with relatively high population exposure reduction potentials - which occur due to a combination of high duration and magnitude of tradeoff conditions - are identified. Our results are the first to quantify the extent of the tradeoff between CO2 emissions and air quality impacts at airports. This raises the possibility of reducing the air quality impacts of airports beyond minimizing fuel burn and/or optimizing for minimum net environmental impact.@en