Reliable prediction of aviation’s environmental impact, including the effect of nitrogen oxides on ozone, is vital for effective mitigation against its contribution to global warming. Estimating this climate impact however, in terms of the short-term ozone instantaneous radiative forcing, requires computationally-expensive chemistry-climate model simulations that limit practical applications such as climate-optimised planning. Existing surrogates neglect the large uncertainties in their predictions due to unknown environmental conditions and missing features. Relative to these surrogates, we propose a high-accuracy probabilistic surrogate that not only provides mean predictions but also quantifies heteroscedastic uncertainties in climate impact estimates. Our model is trained on one of the most comprehensive chemistry-climate model datasets for aviation-induced nitrogen oxide impacts on ozone. Leveraging feature selection techniques, we identify essential predictors that are readily available from weather forecasts to facilitate the implementation therein. We show that our surrogate model is more accurate than homoscedastic models and easily outperforms existing linear surrogates. We then predict the climate impact of a frequently-flown flight in the European Union, and discuss limitations of our approach.

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To reduce the growing distrust in aircraft noise models felt by communities around the airport, it is imperative to ensure accurate modelling methodologies validated by appropriately measured noise metrics. This is especially crucial in regions farther from the airport where Lden = 45 - 55 dBA because the amount of affected residents in these areas is large. Currently, there is a lack of measured noise levels at such distances and uncertainty about the assumed procedures, such as the aircraft thrust settings. Regarding the latter, before comparing the model and measured noise levels, it’s thus crucial to first create a robust workflow for obtaining accurate input data for the noise predictions. In this contribution, as a first step, audio files from the noise monitoring stations around Rotterdam The Hague airport (RTHA), combined with dedicated array and single microphone measurements, are considered for extracting fan rotational speed, N1. The 64-microphone array and the single microphone system were co-located with one of the monitoring stations at a distance of 1.14 km away from the RTHA runway. The engine settings are retrieved from the intensity-averaged spectrograms obtained from the microphone array. Using the derived thrust settings, the noise levels measured by the monitoring stations are compared with the single-event noise level prediction made by the European Noise model, Doc.29. The aircraft position, i.e., input for the model, is obtained from ADS-B data, which contains the position vector and velocity of the aircraft at 1-second intervals. In the framework of this study, noise predictions for both arrival and take-off procedures for three aircraft types are presented. Finally, this case study aims to investigate the applicability of the data from monitoring stations for the aim of model-data predictions at the mentioned regions.@en

Flight altitude is relevant to the climate effects resulting from aircraft emissions. Other research has shown that flying higher within the troposphere leads to larger warming from O ₃ production. Aircraft NO _x emissions are of particular interest, as they lead to warming via the short-term production of O ₃, but also to reduced warming via processes like CH ₄ depletion. We focus on short-term O ₃ production, as it constitutes one of aviation’s largest warming components. Understanding how O ₃ formation varies altitudinally throughout the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere is essential for designing climate-compatible aircraft and routing. We quantify this variation by performing simulations with a global atmospheric chemistry model for three representative cruise altitudes, five regions and two seasons using three methods: Eulerian tagging, perturbation and Lagrangian tagging. This multi-method, regional approach overcomes limitations of previous studies that utilize only one of these methods and apply global emission inventories biased towards present-day flight distributions, thus limiting their applicability to future aviation scenarios. Our results highlight that underrepresenting emissions in areas with growing flight activity (e.g. Asia Pacific) may lead to significant, regional underestimations of the altitudinal sensitivity of short-term NO _x -related O ₃ warming effects in certain cases. We find that emitting in Southern regions, like Australasia, leads to warming larger by a factor of two when compared to global averages. Our findings also suggest that flying lower translates to lower warming from short-term O ₃ production and that this effect is strongest during the local summer. We estimate differences ranging from a factor of 1.2-2.6 between tagging and perturbation results that are attributable to non-linearities of NO _x -O ₃ chemistry, and derived regional correction factors for a widely-used sub-model. Overall, we stress that a combination of all three methods is necessary for a robust assessment of aviation climate effects as they address fundamentally different questions.

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Climate and justice are interconnected. However, simply raising ethical issues associated with the links between climate change, technology, and health is insufficient. Rather, policies and practices need to consider ethics ahead of time. If it is only added “after the fact,” policy will be less efficient and opportunities for carbon minimization will be lost. This will require the cooperation of people at many levels and can be guided by two essential ethical principles: distributive justice and environmental sustainability.@en

Atmospheric sensitivities (gradients), quantifying the atmospheric response to emissions or other perturbations, can provide meaningful insights on the underlying atmospheric chemistry or transport processes. Atmospheric adjoint modeling enables the calculation of receptor-oriented sensitivities of model outputs of interest to input parameters (e.g., emissions), overcoming the numerical cost of conventional (forward) modeling. The adjoint of the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry-transport model is a widely used such model, but prior to v36 it lacked extensive stratospheric capabilities. Here, we present the development and evaluation of the discrete adjoint of the global chemistry-transport model (CTM) GEOS-Chem unified chemistry extension (UCX) for stratospheric applications, which extends the existing capabilities of the GEOS-Chem adjoint to enable the calculation of sensitivities that include stratospheric chemistry and interactions. This development adds 37 new tracers, 273 kinetic and photolysis reactions, an updated photolysis scheme, treatment of stratospheric aerosols, and all other features described in the original UCX paper. With this development the GEOS-Chem adjoint model is able to capture the spatial, temporal, and speciated variability in stratospheric ozone depletion processes, among other processes. We demonstrate its use by calculating 2-week sensitivities of stratospheric ozone to precursor species and show that the adjoint captures the Antarctic ozone depletion potential of active halogen species, including the chlorine activation and deactivation process. The spatial variations in the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to NOx emissions are also described. This development expands the scope of research questions that can be addressed by allowing stratospheric interactions and feedbacks to be considered in the tropospheric sensitivity and inversion applications.@en

Policy-makers seeking to limit the impact of coal electricity-generating units (EGUs, also known as power plants) on air quality and climate justify regulations by quantifying the health burden attributable to exposure from these sources. We defined “coal PM2.5” as fine particulate matter associated with coal EGU sulfur dioxide emissions and estimated annual exposure to coal PM2.5 from 480 EGUs in the US. We estimated the number of deaths attributable to coal PM2.5 from 1999 to 2020 using individual-level Medicare death records representing 650 million person-years. Exposure to coal PM2.5 was associated with 2.1 times greater mortality risk than exposure to PM2.5 from all sources. A total of 460,000 deaths were attributable to coal PM2.5, representing 25% of all PM2.5-related Medicare deaths before 2009 and 7% after 2012. Here, we quantify and visualize the contribution of individual EGUs to mortality.@en

Aviation’s contribution to anthropogenic global warming is estimated to be between 3 – 5% [1]. This assessment comprises two contributions: the well understood atmospheric impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the more uncertain non-CO2 effects. The latter pertain to persistent contrails and pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor (H2O), sulfur oxides (SOx) and soot particles. NOx emissions are involved in non-linear processes that result in the short-term production of ozone (O3) and longer-term destruction of methane (CH4), stratospheric water vapor (SWV), and primary mode ozone (PMO). The aviation-attributable impacts arising from this short-term increase in O3 can vary by more than a factor of 1.5 depending on the selected modelling approach. This O3 increase is associated with the second largest warming effect across aviation’s main climate forcers [1]. We therefore quantify this figure using three modelling approaches (an Eulerian and a Lagrangian tagging scheme as well as a perturbation approach) at three potential aircraft cruise altitudes (200, 250 and 300 hPa) at which NOx pulse emissions are introduced in the Americas, Africa, Eurasia and Australasia. In general, the tagging method computes the contribution by an emission source to the concentration of a chemical species while a perturbation approach consists in calculating the total impact of an emission to the concentration of a species by means of subtracting two simulations: one with all emissions and a second without the specific source’s emissions. We compare results from Eulerian and Lagrangian simulations using the same climate-chemistry code: the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. With the Eulerian setup, we are able to capture non-linear processes and feedback effects, but not track the transport of emitted species in detail. The Lagrangian setup [2], on the other hand, allows for the accompaniment of thousands of air parcel trajectories, but at the cost of assuming a simplified linear chemistry mechanism. We find that the Lagrangian tagging approach provides the largest estimates for O3 production and radiative forcing (RF), followed by the Eulerian tagging scheme and lastly by the perturbation method. We therefore investigate the appropriateness of each of these in quantifying aviation’s total and marginal climate effects by addressing the following research questions: 1) By how much are the estimates for the short-term NOx-induced O3 perturbation and consequent RF varying across the three modelling approaches and why? 2) How does this RF vary with emission altitude within the upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere (UTLS)? [1] Lee, D.S., Fahey, D.W., Skowron, A., Allen, M.R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S.J., Freeman, S., Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R.R., Lim, L.L., Lund, M.T., Millar, R.J., Owen, B., Penner, J.E., Pitari, G., Prather, M.J., Sausen, R., and Wilcox, L.J.: The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018, Atmos. Environ., 244, 117834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834, 2021. [2] Maruhashi, J., Grewe, V., Frömming, C., Jöckel, P., and Dedoussi, I. C.: Transport patterns of global aviation NOx and their short-term O3 radiative forcing – a machine learning approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14253–14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, 2022.@en

Excess nitrogen deposition from anthropogenic sources of atmospheric emissions, such as agriculture and transportation, can have negative effects on natural environments. Designing effective conservation efforts requires knowledge of the contribution of individual sectors. This study utilizes a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model to quantify, for the first time, the contribution of global aviation NO_x emissions to nitrogen deposition for 2005 and 2019. We find that aviation led to an additional 1.39 Tg of nitrogen deposited globally in 2019, up 72 % from 2005, with 67 % of each year's total occurring through wet deposition. In 2019, aviation was responsible for an average of 0.66 %, 1.13 %, and 1.61 % of modeled nitrogen deposition from all sources over Asia, Europe, and North America, respectively. These impacts are spatially widespread, with 56 % of deposition occurring over water. Emissions during the landing, taxi and takeoff (LTO) phases of flight are responsible for 8 % of aviation's nitrogen deposition impacts on average globally, and between 16 and 32 % over most land in regions with high aviation activity. Despite currently representing less than 1.2 % of nitrogen deposition globally, further growth of aviation emissions would result in increases in aviation's contribution to nitrogen deposition and associated critical loads.

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While efforts have been made to curb CO2 emissions from aviation, the more uncertain non-CO2 effects that contribute about two-thirds to the warming in terms of radiative forcing (RF), still require attention. The most important non-CO2 effects include persistent line-shaped contrails, contrail-induced cirrus clouds and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions that alter the ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations, both of which are greenhouse gases, and the emission of water vapour (H2O). The climate impact of these non-CO2 effects depends on emission location and prevailing weather situation; thus, it can potentially be reduced by advantageous re-routing of flights using Climate Change Functions (CCFs), which are a measure for the climate effect of a locally confined aviation emission. CCFs are calculated using a modelling chain starting from the instantaneous RF (iRF) measured at the tropopause that results from aviation emissions. However, the iRF is a product of computationally intensive chemistry-climate model (EMAC) simulations and is currently restricted to a limited number of days and only to the North Atlantic Flight Corridor. This makes it impossible to run EMAC on an operational basis for global flight planning. A step in this direction lead to a surrogate model called algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs), derived by regressing CCFs (training data) against 2 or 3 local atmospheric variables at the time of emission (features) with simple regression techniques and are applicable only in parts of the Northern hemisphere. It was found that in the specific case of O3 aCCFs, which provide a reasonable first estimate for the short-term impact of aviation NOx on O3 warming using temperature and geopotential as features, can be vastly improved [1]. There is aleatoric uncertainty in the full-order model (EMAC), stemming from unknown sources (missing features) and randomness in the known features, which can introduce heteroscedasticity in the data. Deterministic surrogates (e.g. aCCFs) only predict point estimates of the conditional average, thereby providing an incomplete picture of the stochastic response. Thus, the goal of this research is to build a new surrogate model for iRF, which is achieved by : 1. Expanding the geographical coverage of iRF (training data) by running EMAC simulations in more regions (North & South America, Eurasia, Africa and Australasia) at multiple cruise flight altitudes, 2. Following an objective approach to selecting atmospheric variables (feature selection) and considering the importance of local as well as non-local effects, 3. Regressing the iRF against selected atmospheric variables using supervised machine learning techniques such as homoscedastic and heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression. We present a new surrogate model that predicts iRF of aviation NOx-O3 effects on a regular basis with confidence levels, which not only improves our scientific understanding of NOx-O3 effects, but also increases the potential of global climate-optimised flight planning.@en

Aside from the climate impacts from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, civil aircraft currently in operation also emit nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor (H2O) and other non-CO2 pollutants whose combined primary and secondary effects account for almost 70% of aviation's net contribution towards anthropogenic global warming. NOx emissions, in the short-run, actuate the second largest aviation warming effect via indirect ozone (O3) formation [1], and, unlike CO2, the altitude, geographic location and time of emission are all significant drivers of their resulting climate impact. Past studies [2] have shown a positive correlation between emission altitude and warming from NOx emitted within the troposphere, but such analyses are frequently limited by emission inventories that largely focus on flights across the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC), thereby disregarding future shifts and alternate patterns in civil aviation traffic. We bridge this gap via global, Lagrangian and Eulerian simulations using the EMAC model wherein equal amounts of NO are released across five regions during two seasons, as was done in [3], but now for two additional flight levels that together cover typical subsonic cruise ranges of 10–12 km. The NOx-induced O3 production was calculated using two modelling methods, tagging and perturbation, as both are vastly used for climate effects estimations. The former is used to compute the contribution of a source to a whole while the latter is useful, for instance, in quantifying the total impact from variations in the strength of a source. We therefore characterize the relation between emission altitude and warming from short-term O3 on a global scale. These results and analyses then form an integral part of the development of next-generation surrogate models that will make climate-optimal routing a reality [4].

References
[1] Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Skowron, A., Allen, M. R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S. J., Freeman, S., Forster, P. M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R. R., Lim, L. L., Lund, M. T., Millar, R. J., Owen, B., Penner, J. E., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Sausen, R., and Wilcox, L. J.: The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018, Atmos. Environ., 244, 117834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834, 2021.
[2] Matthes, S., Lim, L., Burkhardt, U., Dahlmann, K., Dietmüller, S., Grewe, V., Haslerud, A. S., Hendricks, J., Owen, B., Pitari, G., Righi, M., and Skowron, A.: Mitigation of Non-CO2 Aviation's Climate Impact by Changing Cruise Altitudes, Aerospace, 8, 36, https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8020036, 2021.
[3] Maruhashi, J., Grewe, V., Frömming, C., Jöckel, P., and Dedoussi, I. C.: Transport patterns of global aviation NOx and their short-term O3 radiative forcing – a machine learning approach, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14253–14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14253-2022, 2022.
[4] Rao, P., Dwight, R., Singh, D., Maruhashi, J., Dedoussi, I., Grewe, V., and Frömming, C.: Towards a new surrogate model for predicting short-term NOx-O3 effects from aviation using Gaussian processes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4337, 2023.

Acknowledgements
This research is part of the ACACIA (Advancing the Science for Aviation and Climate; http://www.acacia-project.eu) project, which is funded by the European Commission, Horizon 2020 Framework program under the grant agreement no. 875036.
This study used the Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of the SURF Cooperative (grant nos. EINF-441 and EINF-2734).@en

Aviation produces a net climate warming contribution that comprises multiple forcing terms of mixed sign. Aircraft NOx emissions are associated with both warming and cooling terms, with the short-term increase in O3 induced by NOx emissions being the dominant warming effect. The uncertainty associated with the magnitude of this climate forcer is amongst the highest out of all contributors from aviation and is owed to the nonlinearity of the NOx-O3 chemistry and the large dependency of the response on space and time, i.e., on the meteorological condition and background atmospheric composition. This study addresses how transport patterns of emitted NOx and their climate effects vary with respect to regions (North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia and Australasia) and seasons (January-March and July-September in 2014) by employing global-scale simulations. We quantify the climate effects from NOx emissions released at a representative aircraft cruise altitude of 250 hPa (∼10400 m) in terms of radiative forcing resulting from their induced short-term contributions to O3. The emitted NOx is transported with Lagrangian air parcels within the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. To identify the main global transport patterns and associated climate impacts of the 14 000 simulated air parcel trajectories, the unsupervised QuickBundles clustering algorithm is adapted and applied. Results reveal a strong seasonal dependence of the contribution of NOx emissions to O3. For most regions, an inverse relationship is found between an air parcel's downward transport and its mean contribution to O3. NOx emitted in the northern regions (North America and Eurasia) experience the longest residence times in the upper midlatitudes (40 %-45 % of their lifetime), while those beginning in the south (South America, Africa and Australasia) remain mostly in the Tropics (45 %-50 % of their lifetime). Due to elevated O3 sensitivities, emissions in Australasia induce the highest overall radiative forcing, attaining values that are larger by factors of 2.7 and 1.2 relative to Eurasia during January and July, respectively. The location of the emissions does not necessarily correspond to the region that will be most affected - for instance, NOx over North America in July will induce the largest radiative forcing in Europe. Overall, this study highlights the spatially and temporally heterogeneous nature of the NOx-O3 chemistry from a global perspective, which needs to be accounted for in efforts to minimize aviation's climate impact, given the sector's resilient growth.

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Aviation is a growing source of atmospheric emissions impacting the Earth’s climate and air quality. Comprehensive assessments of the environmental impact of this industry require up-to-date, spatially resolved, and speciated emissions inventories. We develop and evaluate the first such estimate of global emissions from aircraft operations for the years 2017–2020. Aircraft activity data, based on flights registered by networks of aircraft Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) telemetry receivers, are used together with the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) 3.15 aircraft performance model and the International Civil Aviation Organization Engine Emissions Databank to estimate spatially resolved fuel burn and emissions of CO2, H2O, NOx (NO+NO2), SOx (SO2+SO2−4), CO, unburnt hydrocarbons (HC), and nonvolatile particulate matter (nvPM). We calculate that 937 Tg of CO2 and 4.62 Tg of NOx were emitted by aircraft in 2019, and quantify the evolution of the fleet average emission indices over time. Owing to impacts from COVID-19, we estimate a 48% lower fuel burn, resulting in 463 Tg less CO2 and 2.29 Tg less NOx emitted in 2020 than what would be otherwise expected. We conclude that ADS-B is a viable source of data to generate global emissions estimates in a timely and transparent manner for monitoring and assessing aviation’s atmospheric impacts.@en

The resilient growth of air travel demands a comprehensive understanding of the climate effects from aviation emissions. The current level of knowledge of the environmental repercussions of CO2 emissions is considerably higher than that of non-CO2 emissions, which includes nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), other aerosols like black carbon (BC), water vapor and contrails. Aircraft NOx emissions not only possess a high degree of uncertainty because of the non-linearity of the NOx – O3 chemistry, but are also responsible for producing the second strongest net warming effect out of all non-CO2 climate forcers from aviation, right after contrails [1]. This study employs global-scale simulations to characterize the transport patterns of nitrogen oxides and assess their climate effects across several regions (North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia and Australasia) from January to March and July to September in 2014. Radiative forcing effects from the short-term increase in O3, which are triggered by NOx emissions, are estimated. These emissions, which are introduced at a typical cruising altitude, are modelled as Lagrangian air parcels that are transported within the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model [2]. In order to summarize the dynamical and radiative forcing characteristics of more than 10,000 simulated trajectories, a clustering approach with an adapted distance metric is applied. The method itself is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, called QuickBundles [3], that is most commonly used in the field of neuroscience. A strong seasonal dependence is found for the contribution of NOx emissions to O3. In terms of residence times, NOx emitted in Northern regions resides mainly in the upper mid-latitudes while those initiated in the South remain mostly in the Tropics. Due to pronounced zonal jets, the location of emission does not necessarily correspond to the region that will be most affected, i.e., an emission starting in N. America in July will induce the greatest warming in Europe. [1] Lee, D.S., Fahey, D.W., Skowron, A., Allen, M.R., Burkhardt, U., Chen, Q., Doherty, S.J., Freeman, S., Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J., Gettelman, A., De León, R.R., Lim, L.L., Lund, M.T., Millar, R.J., Owen, B., Penner, J.E., Pitari, G., Prather, M.J., Sausen, R., Wilcox, L.J.: The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 244, 2021, 117834, ISSN 1352-2310, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834. [2] Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., Kern, B., Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geoscientific Model Development, 3, 717-752, doi: 10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. [3] Garyfallidis, E., Brett, M., Correia, M. M., Williams, G. B., Nimmo-Smith, I. QuickBundles, a Method for Tractography Simplification. Frontiers in neuroscience, 6, 175. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2012.00175, 2012.@en

Sustainability is the biggest challenge facing the aerospace industry today. With the global number of flights expected to rise, the climate impact of aviation will continue to increase. Current research states that the rerouting of aircraft through wind-optimisation for the purpose of fuel usage minimisation and emission reduction is an effective sustainability contribution. However, these routing models only optimize for minimum fuel burn, not necessarily minimum climate impact. Flying efficiently through wind fields could mean flying through regions with higher climate impact, for example, where warming contrails are formed. This potentially forfeits the advantage of the reduced emissions from the wind-optimized route. By bringing together fields such as satellite remote sensing, atmospheric science and aircraft surveillance data, a climate optimized free routing model can be made. This paper creates a climate optimized free routing airspace model by incorporating knowledge from the aforementioned fields and existing wind-optimization models with AI and open-source tools. @en

Land cover plays an important role in the Earth's climate as it affects multiple biochemical cycles and is critical for food security and biodiversity. As land cover is continuously evolving, influenced by anthropogenic and other factors, the availability of temporally varying land cover data sets of large spatial domains is integral to understanding, monitoring, and informing environmental management efforts. Here we use classification trees to generate annual land cover maps of the European continent for 2001 to 2019 on a ∼250 m resolution. The classification trees are trained using gap-filled and smoothed MODIS normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite data, as well as CORINE reference land cover data. We apply the bagging ensemble technique on oversampled NDVI data, with an additional majority vote for overlapping segments over the continent-wide domain. We distinguish between 39 land cover classes, with a total classification accuracy of 75% and average precision of 76%. The accuracy varies between the classes, with common classes (e.g. agricultural and forest classes) performing better than rarer ones (e.g. artificial land cover). Over the entire continent, we find that artificial land cover, wetlands, and forests have increased on average by 0.76, 0.50 and 0.22%/year respectively, while the agricultural area has decreased by 0.21%/year. We also quantify these changes in land cover on a national and metropolitan level. Given the near-real-time availability of global NDVI data, we note the potential of the presented approach for generating ‘near-real-year’ annual land cover data sets of large geographic domains, for the continuous monitoring of land cover change and the effects of interventions.

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Depletion of stratospheric ozone, and the associated increase in population exposure to UV radiation, is an environmental consequence of high-altitude, supersonic aviation. Assessments of the impacts of emissions from subsonic aircraft – which fly at lower altitudes – have instead shown that they produce a net increase, rather than decrease, in global net ozone, suggesting the existence of an intermediate “column ozone neutral” cruise altitude. Knowing this altitude and its variation with factors such as latitude, season, and fuel composition could provide a pathway towards reducing the environmental impacts of aviation, but would require a prohibitive number of atmospheric simulations. We instead use the newly developed GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric adjoint to identify the location of the column ozone-neutral aircraft cruise altitude as a function of these factors. We show that, although the mean ozone neutral altitude is at 13.5 km globally, this varies from 14.6 km to 12.5 km between the equator and 60°N. This altitude varies by less than a kilometer between seasons, but the net depletion resulting from flying at greater altitudes varies by a factor of two. We also find that eliminating fuel sulfur would result in a neutral altitude 0.5–1.0 km greater than when conventional jet fuel is burned. Our results imply that a low Mach number supersonic aircraft burning low-sulfur fuel (e.g. biofuels) may be able to achieve net zero global ozone change. However, for a fleet to achieve ozone neutrality will require careful consideration of the non-linear variation in sensitivity with altitude and latitude.

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The aircraft’s environmental performance on fleet level is so far completely decoupled from the design process. The climate impact from aviation arising from non-CO2 effects are largely independent from CO2 emissions, but rather depend on the atmospheric state. Previously complex climate-chemistry models were used to evaluate the non-CO2 emissions impact on climate. This is far too computationally demanding for a multidisciplinary design optimisation (MDO) process, requiring a multitude of climate impact evaluations. The question then is, how to efficiently design the next generation climate optimal aircraft? In this paper, a new concept for designing aircraft with minimum climate impact using Climate Functions for Aircraft Design (CFAD) is presented. The content of this paper provides an overview of the development of these innovative CFAD and demonstrates the ability to be integrated in an existing MDO framework. The mitigation potential by optimising aircraft design using CFAD is analysed with respect to different cruise conditions and by minimizing the overall climate impact. To validate the CFAD, a higher fidelity assessment is carried out. Finally, the key performance indicators, i.e. fuel consumption, flight time and operating cost, of the optimised aircraft design are compared to that of the reference aircraft.@en

Aircraft emitted oxides of nitrogen (NOx) contribute both to climate change and air quality degradation. The trend of higher gas temperatures, caused by engine design choices seeking lower fuel consumption and achieve more complete combustion, has the adverse effect of increasing NOx formation, which might however be compensated by improved combustor designs. The tradeoff between lowering NOx or CO¬2 emissions is an important consideration in mitigating the environmental impacts of aviation, and, and in context of the industry’s environmental targets and forecasts, quantifying the technological trend taking place can provide an indication of future emission totals. In this study, we estimate bottom-up global fleet average aviation fuel burn and NOx emissions for the years 2005 and 2018 and extrapolate their totals to 2030, 2040, and 2045 with current air traffic and engine performance forecasts. Average NOx emission indices are evaluated for different aircraft classes at each year considered, and their changes over time are discussed together with a sensitivity analysis on the assumptions made.@en

Aviation emissions lead to degraded air quality and adverse human health impacts, making air quality one of the leading environmental externalities associated with aviation. Aviation emissions have been growing steadily over the past decades, and, despite the current hindrance in air traffic due to the COVID- 19 pandemic, they are forecasted to continue to grow in the long-term. As a result, mitigating aviation’s adverse air quality impacts is an increasingly pressing challenge for the aviation industry. At the same time, the aviation industry has inherently long timelines, indicating that sustainability-related regulatory and technological decisions made presently will take effect over the next 30+ years. Over such timelines, the changing atmospheric composition, driven by meteorological and background (non-aviation) emissions changes, results in a changing atmospheric response to emissions. This work summarizes recent advancements on this and discusses their implications for the aviation sector. First, aviation emissions and the resulting air quality impacts are described. The role of the atmospheric sensitivities to emissions and their evolution over time is then discussed. Finally, the implications for the long timelines associated with aviation mitigation options are underlined. Current challenges as well as opportunities for future research to resolve current assessment shortcomings are also presented. @en

Aviation ensures mobility for both passengers and goods. It is important as a transport sector for connections on and between continents. Nevertheless, aviation also contributes to anthropogenic climate change. The effects are usually divided in CO2 and non-CO2 effects and therefore not only CO2 emissions but also other emissions (e.g., NOx , water vapour or soot) and contrails are covered. To reduce the effects of aviation’s climate impact, several mitigation options are applied. One approach are climate change functions, which will be addressed here. The concept of climate change functions was used in previous projects, e.g. REACT4C, WeCare, ATM4E. The goal of these functions was to optimize the aircraft routes regarding the calculated climate impact. Climate change functions measure the climate impact per unit emission for a specific day, which considers the current meteorological conditions. Climate change functions were previously used to optimize the aircraft routings. The concept should now be applied for the optimization of the aircraft design as well since the promising concept is currently missing for the application of aircraft design optimization. The climate functions for aircraft design will connect the aircraft design with the climate impact of various emission in order to be able to optimize the aircraft design. For the calculation of the functions, it is necessary to define a specific application. This application results from a combination of aircraft design parameters. Aircraft design parameters can be for example flight altitude, climb rate, speed or range. Based on a resulting emission inventory, the temperature response can be calculated with the model “AirClim”. This model calculates with the input, first, the radiative forcing and based on that the temperature change. The final development step is the verification of the climate functions.@en