Regionalized integrated energy system models considering stakeholder inputs are uncommon in the literature. This study tested and validated an existing quantitative optimization-based OPERA regional modeling framework. Stakeholder responses to surveys resulted in multiple future scenarios and sensitivities, applied to the Dutch province of Groningen energy transition. Stakeholder reflections in a workshop confirmed the potential of the model as a strategic decision-supporting tool. The tool successfully analyzed trade-offs, compromises, and complementarities regarding the different choices of stakeholders. The study reflected on the modest role of solar photovoltaics, which supplied 6.6–17.5 % of the primary energy, in comparison to policies and stakeholder assumptions. Biomass energy, at 18.2–28.5 %, was more prominent than expected. Similarly, choosing a scenario close to the current policy implied a strong dependency on imports, with net imports constituting 50 % of the energy supply. On the other hand, regional self-sufficiency implied spatial implications beyond stakeholder expectations. For example, land use associated with onshore wind energy was ∼13 % of the provincial land. The stakeholder interaction process highlighted capacity investments via other harmonized model linkages and the importance of the science-policy interfaces. Compared with contemporary models, the major advancements are spatial interfacing and the inclusion of land-use planning and policy constraints.@en

Regional level energy system analyses and corresponding integrated modeling is necessary to analyze the impact of national energy policies on a regional level, while considering regional constraints related to energy infrastructure, energy supply potentials, sectoral energy demands, and their interactions. Nevertheless, current literature on energy system analysis largely overlooks the regional level. In response, this study provided a systematic approach to refining and improving the spatial resolution of an existing regional energy system modeling framework. The methodology involved creating regions and nodes within the modeling framework under categories corresponding to land use (cities and other regions), energy supply, and energy infrastructure. We established a unidirectional soft linking with geographical information system-based modeling results allocating spatially sensitive elements, such as renewable resources or heat demand. We provided a detailed breakdown of sectoral energy demand, supply options, and energy infrastructure for electricity and heat, including district heating (DH). This framework explicated regional differences in terms of demand–supply mismatch, supply options, and energy infrastructure. Our case study of the Dutch province of Groningen demonstrated clear differences compared to the previous crude regional model, with, e.g., an increased role of biomass (+460 % change) and decreased role of solar (−59 %), while cities with high heat demand densities and/or compact structures exhibited serious DH penetration, ranging from 11 to 21 %. The systematic steps allow for the replication of the model in other regional analyses. Our framework is complementary for energy system analysis at the national and pan-European levels and can assist regional policymakers in decision-making.@en

Spatially sensitive regional renewables’ potentials are greatly influenced by existing land-use claims and related spatial and environmental policies. Similarly, heat particularly related to low-temperature demand applications in the built environment (BE) is highly spatially explicit. This study developed an analytical approach for a detailed spatial analysis of future solar PV, onshore wind, biomass, and geothermal and industrial waste heat potentials at a regional level and applied in the Dutch Province of Groningen. We included spatial policies, various spatial claims, and other land-use constraints in developing renewable scenarios for 2030 and 2050. We simultaneously considered major spatial claims and multiple renewable energy sources. Claims considered are the BE, agriculture, forest, nature, and network and energy infrastructure, with each connected to social, ecological, environmental, technical, economic, and policy-related constraints. Heat demand was further analyzed by creating highly granular demand density maps, comparing them with regional heat supply potential, and identifying the economic feasibility of heat networks. We analyzed the possibilities of combining multiple renewables on the same land. The 2050 renewable scenarios results ranged 2–66 PJ for solar PV and 0–48 PJ for onshore wind and biomass ranged 3.5–25 PJ for both 2030 and 2050. These large ranges of potentials show the significant impact of spatial constraints and underline the need for understanding how they shape future energy policies. The heat demand density map shows that future heat networks are feasible in large population centers. Our approach is pragmatic and replicable in other regions, subject to data availability.@en

This study developed a method to assess the techno-economic performance and spatial footprint of CO2 capture infrastructure configurations in industrial zones. The method has been successfully applied to a cluster of sixteen industrial plants in the Dutch industrial Botlek area (7.1MtCO2/y) for 2020-2030. The configurations differ inter alia regarding capture technology (post-, pre-, oxyfuel combustion) and location of capture components (centralized vs. plant site). Results indicate that oxyfuel combustion with centralized oxygen production and decentralized CO2 compression is the most cost effective and realistic configuration when applying CO2 capture to all industrial plants (61€/tCO2; 5.8MtCO2/y avoided), mainly due to relatively low energy costs compared to post- and pre-combustion. However, oxyfuel combustion at plant level is economically preferable when capturing CO2 from only the three largest industrial plants. For post-combustion, a separated absorber-stripper configuration (73€/tCO2; 7.1MtCO2/y avoided) is preferable from a cost perspective, due to economic scale effects of capture equipment. The optimal pre-combustion configuration shows a slightly less favorable performance (81€/tCO2; 4.4MtCO2/y avoided). Whereas many industrial plants have insufficient space available for capture equipment, centralized/hybrid configurations show no insurmountable space issues. The deployment of the most favorable configurations is addressed in Part B.@en

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a potential key-technology to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as its use can lead to lower mitigation cost. However, research on other economic impacts of using CCS is scarce. In this paper, we look into economic upstream impacts of CCS use in terms of employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and import dependency on the macro- and sector-level in Western Europe. We determine these impacts by a static comparison of two scenarios of power production with and without CCS (differences in energy efficiency investments between these scenarios were not accounted for). The two scenarios, both representing a stringent climate policy regime, were produced with the energy-system-simulation-model (TIMER) following the same emission profile until 2050. Data from the two scenarios were respectively implemented into a projected version of a global-multiregional IO-Model (EXIOBASE). Macro-level results suggest slightly higher gross employment, but lower Gross Value Added (GVA) (by 25%), and higher import dependency in the CCS-including scenario compared to the CCS-excluding scenario, given that biomass with CCS (BECCS) is available. Sector-level results show disproportionally higher differences between the scenarios in GVA and employment for some sectors compared to other sectors. Particularly, sectors providing fuels (here mostly bio-energy) have significantly higher GVA and employment in the CCS scenario. This study thus reveals interesting upstream economic effects, which can be linked to the technology choice. However, the exact quantitative results depend strongly on model assumptions. Results therefore need to be further explored in other models.@en

Future power systems will require large shares of low-carbon generators such as renewables and power plants with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to keep global warming below 2. °C. Intermittent renewables increase the system-wide demand for flexibility and affect the operation of thermal power plants. We investigate the operation of future power plants by first composing a comprehensive overview of the operational flexibility of current and future power plants. Next, a combined long-term optimization and hourly simulation is performed with the soft-linked MARKAL-NL-UU and REPOWERS models for The Netherlands in 2030 and 2050. We quantify and compare the technical and economic performance of power plants for four distinctly different future scenarios. We find that future low-carbon power systems will have large shares of intermittent renewable sources (19-42%) and also a 2-38% higher variability in residual load compared to the Baseline scenario. Hence, power plant operation will be more variable, which reduces their efficiency by 0.6-1.6% compared to the full-load efficiency. Enough flexibility is present in future power systems to accommodate renewables, due to advances in power plant flexibility and interconnectors. As a result, generators with CCS have a large market share (23-64% of power generated). Moreover, the current energy-based market model generates insufficient revenues: the price received per MWh covers only 84% (±30%) of the total generation costs per MWh of 77. €/MWh (±12€). This will discourage new investments in generation capacity and reduce power system adequacy. New or additional market designs may be required to ensure system adequacy in future power systems.@en

This paper provides a method to identify drivers, barriers and synergies (DBS) related to the deployment of a CO2 pipeline network. The method was demonstrated for the West Mediterranean region (WMR) (i.e. Spain, Portugal and Morocco). The method comprises a literature review, analysis of embedded pipeline trajectories, interviews with experts, and workshops with stakeholders. Subsequently, the collected information was used to identify route specific DBS in several CO2 pipeline network deployment scenarios that were modeled for the WMR. Most identified DBS apply to CO2 pipeline transport in general. The barriers (e.g. technical knowledge gaps, outstanding legislative issues, lack of financial incentive) can in principle be tackled to make the design, construction and operation of a CO2 pipeline network possible, but could sometimes lead to somewhat higher costs. Furthermore, there are also facilitating processes (e.g. experience with CO2 pipeline transport for EOR). Cost benefits due to pipeline oversizing were identified as a route specific driver, whereas crossings of mountains, water and nature areas are route specific barriers. Installing CO2 pipelines along natural gas pipelines could be either a route specific synergy or barrier, depending on site conditions. Finally, several key measures were proposed to enable CO2 pipeline networks in the future.@en