Regionalized decision-supporting tool application for scenario analyses considering stakeholder interactions: A case study of the Groningen province in the northern Netherlands

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Abstract

Regionalized integrated energy system models considering stakeholder inputs are uncommon in the literature. This study tested and validated an existing quantitative optimization-based OPERA regional modeling framework. Stakeholder responses to surveys resulted in multiple future scenarios and sensitivities, applied to the Dutch province of Groningen energy transition. Stakeholder reflections in a workshop confirmed the potential of the model as a strategic decision-supporting tool. The tool successfully analyzed trade-offs, compromises, and complementarities regarding the different choices of stakeholders. The study reflected on the modest role of solar photovoltaics, which supplied 6.6–17.5 % of the primary energy, in comparison to policies and stakeholder assumptions. Biomass energy, at 18.2–28.5 %, was more prominent than expected. Similarly, choosing a scenario close to the current policy implied a strong dependency on imports, with net imports constituting 50 % of the energy supply. On the other hand, regional self-sufficiency implied spatial implications beyond stakeholder expectations. For example, land use associated with onshore wind energy was ∼13 % of the provincial land. The stakeholder interaction process highlighted capacity investments via other harmonized model linkages and the importance of the science-policy interfaces. Compared with contemporary models, the major advancements are spatial interfacing and the inclusion of land-use planning and policy constraints.