Epidemic forecasts are only as good as the accuracy of epidemic measurements. Is epidemic data, particularly COVID-19 epidemic data, clean, and devoid of noise? The complexity and variability inherent in data collection and reporting suggest otherwise. While we cannot evaluate the integrity of the COVID-19 epidemic data in a holistic fashion, we can assess the data for the presence of reporting delays. In our work, through the analysis of the first COVID-19 wave, we find substantial reporting delays in the published epidemic data. Motivated by the desire to enhance epidemic forecasts, we develop a statistical framework to detect, uncover, and remove reporting delays in the infectious, recovered, and deceased epidemic time series. Using our framework, we expose and analyze reporting delays in eight regions significantly affected by the first COVID-19 wave. Further, we demonstrate that removing reporting delays from epidemic data by using our statistical framework may decrease the error in epidemic forecasts. While our statistical framework can be used in combination with any epidemic forecast method that intakes infectious, recovered, and deceased data, to make a basic assessment, we employed the classical SIRD epidemic model. Our results indicate that the removal of reporting delays from the epidemic data may decrease the forecast error by up to 50%. We anticipate that our framework will be indispensable in the analysis of novel COVID-19 strains and other existing or novel infectious diseases.@en

Although resource management schemes and algorithms for networks are well established, we present two novel ideas, based on graph theory, that solve inverse all shortest path problem. Given a symmetric and non-negative demand matrix, the inverse all shortest path problem (IASPP) asks to find a weighted adjacency matrix of a graph such that all the elements in the corresponding shortest path weight matrix are not larger than those of the demand matrix. In contrast to many inverse shortest path problems that are NP-complete, we propose the Descending Order Recovery (DOR) that exactly solves a variant of IASPP, referred to as optimised IASPP. The network provided by DOR minimized the number of links and the sum of the link weights among all the graphs with the same shortest path weight matrix. Our second proposed algorithm, Omega-based Link Removal (OLR), solves the optimised IASPP by utilising the effective resistance from flow networks. The essence of our idea is the applications of properties of flow networks, such as electrical power grids, to compute the needed resources in path networks subject to end-To-end demands, such as telecommunication networks where quality of service constraints specify the end-To-end demands.

@en

Except for the empty graph, we show that the orthogonal matrix X of the adjacency matrix A determines that adjacency matrix completely, but not always uniquely. The proof relies on interesting properties of the Hadamard product Ξ = X ◦ X. As a consequence of the theory, we show that irregular co-eigenvector graphs exist only if the number of nodes N ≥ 6. Coeigenvector graphs possess the same orthogonal eigenvector matrix X, but different eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix. Co-eigenvector graphs are the dual of co-spectral graphs, that share all eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix, but possess a different orthogonal eigenvector matrix. We deduce general properties of co-eigenvector graph and start to enumerate all co-eigenvector graphs on N = 6 and N = 7 nodes. Finally, we list many open problems.@en

Epilepsy surgery is the treatment of choice for drug-resistant epilepsy patients, but up to 50% of patients continue to have seizures one year after the resection. In order to aid presurgical planning and predict postsurgical outcome on a patient-by-patient basis, we developed a framework of individualized computational models that combines epidemic spreading with patient-specific connectivity and epileptogeneity maps: the Epidemic Spreading Seizure and Epilepsy Surgery framework (ESSES). ESSES parameters were fitted in a retrospective study (N = 15) to reproduce invasive electroencephalography (iEEG)-recorded seizures. ESSES reproduced the iEEG-recorded seizures, and significantly better so for patients with good (seizure-free, SF) than bad (nonseizure-free, NSF) outcome. We illustrate here the clinical applicability of ESSES with a pseudo-prospective study (N = 34) with a blind setting (to the resection strategy and surgical outcome) that emulated presurgical conditions. By setting the model parameters in the retrospective study, ESSES could be applied also to patients without iEEG data. ESSES could predict the chances of good outcome after any resection by finding patient-specific model-based optimal resection strategies, which we found to be smaller for SF than NSF patients, suggesting an intrinsic difference in the network organization or presurgical evaluation results of NSF patients. The actual surgical plan overlapped more with the model-based optimal resection, and had a larger effect in decreasing modeled seizure propagation, for SF patients than for NSF patients. Overall, ESSES could correctly predict 75% of NSF and 80.8% of SF cases pseudo-prospectively. Our results show that individualised computational models may inform surgical planning by suggesting alternative resections and providing information on the likelihood of a good outcome after a proposed resection. This is the first time that such a model is validated with a fully independent cohort and without the need for iEEG recordings.

@en

We extend the N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) for the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological process to time-varying networks. Processes on time-varying networks are often analyzed under the assumption that the process and network evolution happen on different timescales. This approximation is called timescale separation. We investigate timescale separation between disease spreading and topology updates of the network. We introduce the transition times T(r) and T¯(r) as the boundaries between the intermediate regime and the annealed (fast changing network) and quenched (static network) regimes, respectively, for a fixed accuracy tolerance r. By analyzing the convergence of static NIMFA processes, we analytically derive upper and lower bounds for T¯(r). Our results provide insights and bounds on the time of convergence to the steady state of the static NIMFA SIS process. We show that, under our assumptions, the upper-transition time T¯(r) is almost entirely determined by the basic reproduction number R0 of the network. The value of the upper-transition time T¯(r) around the epidemic threshold is large, which agrees with the current understanding that some real-world epidemics cannot be approximated with the aforementioned timescale separation.

@en

Although eigenvectors belong to the core of linear algebra, relatively few closed-form expressions exist, which we bundle and discuss here. A particular goal is their interpretation for graph-related matrices, such as the adjacency matrix of an undirected, possibly weighted graph.

@en

Federated learning is an effective method to train a machine learning model without requiring to aggregate the potentially sensitive data of agents in a central server. However, the limited communication bandwidth, the hardware of the agents and a potential application-specific latency requirement impact how many and which agents can participate in the learning process at each communication round. In this paper, we propose a selection metric characterizing each agent’s importance with respect to both the learning process and the resource efficiency of its wireless communication channel. Leveraging this importance metric, we formulate a general agent selection optimization problem, which can be adapted to different environments with latency or resource-oriented constraints. Considering an example wireless environment with latency constraints, the agent selection problem reduces to the 0/1 Knapsack problem, which we solve with a fully polynomial approximation. We then evaluate the agent selection policy in different scenarios, using extensive simulations for an example task of object classification of European traffic signs. The results indicate that agent selection policies which consider both learning and channel aspects provide benefits in terms of the attainable global model accuracy and/or the time needed to achieve a targeted accuracy level. However, in scenarios where agents have a limited number of data samples or where the latency requirement is very stringent, a pure learning-based agent selection policy is shown to be more beneficial during the early or late stages of the learning process.@en

For this study, we investigated efficient strategies for the recovery of individual links in power grids governed by the direct current (DC) power flow model, under random link failures. Our primary objective was to explore the efficacy of recovering failed links based solely on topological network metrics. In total, we considered 13 recovery strategies, which encompassed 2 strategies based on link centrality values (link betweenness and link flow betweenness), 8 strategies based on the products of node centrality values at link endpoints (degree, eigenvector, weighted eigenvector, closeness, electrical closeness, weighted electrical closeness, zeta vector, and weighted zeta vector), and 2 heuristic strategies (greedy recovery and two-step greedy recovery), in addition to the random recovery strategy. To evaluate the performance of these proposed strategies, we conducted simulations on three distinct power systems: the IEEE 30, IEEE 39, and IEEE 118 systems. Our findings revealed several key insights: Firstly, there were notable variations in the performance of the recovery strategies based on topological network metrics across different power systems. Secondly, all such strategies exhibited inferior performance when compared to the heuristic recovery strategies. Thirdly, the two-step greedy recovery strategy consistently outperformed the others, with the greedy recovery strategy ranking second. Based on our results, we conclude that relying solely on a single metric for the development of a recovery strategy is insufficient when restoring power grids following link failures. By comparison, recovery strategies employing greedy algorithms prove to be more effective choices.@en

We propose a linear clustering process on a network consisting of two opposite forces: attraction and repulsion between adjacent nodes. Each node is mapped to a position on a one-dimensional line. The attraction and repulsion forces move the nodal position on the line, depending on how similar or different the neighbourhoods of two adjacent nodes are. Based on each node position, the number of clusters in a network and each node's cluster membership is estimated. The performance of the proposed linear clustering process is benchmarked on synthetic networks against widely accepted clustering algorithms such as modularity, Leiden method, Louvain method and the non-back tracking matrix. The proposed linear clustering process outperforms the most popular modularity-based methods, such as the Louvain method, on synthetic and real-world networks, while possessing a comparable computational complexity.

@en

Epilepsy surgery is the treatment of choice for drug-resistant epilepsy patients, but only leads to seizure freedom for roughly two in three patients. To address this problem, we designed a patient-specific epilepsy surgery model combining large-scale magnetoencephalography (MEG) brain networks with an epidemic spreading model. This simple model was enough to reproduce the stereo-tactical electroencephalography (SEEG) seizure propagation patterns of all patients (N = 15), when considering the resection areas (RA) as the epidemic seed. Moreover, the goodness of fit of the model predicted surgical outcome. Once adapted for each patient, the model can generate alternative hypothesis of the seizure onset zone and test different resection strategies in silico. Overall, our findings indicate that spreading models based on patient-specific MEG connectivity can be used to predict surgical outcomes, with better fit results and greater reduction on seizure propagation linked to higher likelihood of seizure freedom after surgery. Finally, we introduced a population model that can be individualized by considering only the patient-specific MEG network, and showed that it not only conserves but improves the group classification. Thus, it may pave the way to generalize this framework to patients without SEEG recordings, reduce the risk of overfitting and improve the stability of the analyses.

@en

Modelling temporal networks is an open problem that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields. Currently, the existing modelling solutions of time-evolving graphs do not allow us to provide an accurate graph sequence. In this paper, we examine the network dynamics from a system identification perspective. We prove that any periodic graph sequence can be accurately modelled as a linear process. We propose two algorithms, called Subspace Graph Generator (SG-gen) and Linear Periodic Graph Generator (LPG-gen), for modelling periodic graph sequences and provide their performance on artificial graph sequences. We further propose a novel model, called Linear Graph Generator (LG-gen), that can be applied to non-periodic graph sequences. Our experiments on artificial and real networks demonstrate that many temporal networks can be accurately approximated by periodic graph sequences.@en

Interpreting natural language is an increasingly important task in computer algorithms due to the growing availability of unstructured textual data. Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications rely on semantic networks for structured knowledge representation. The fundamental properties of semantic networks must be taken into account when designing NLP algorithms, yet they remain to be structurally investigated. We study the properties of semantic networks from ConceptNet, defined by 7 semantic relations from 11 different languages. We find that semantic networks have universal basic properties: they are sparse, highly clustered, and many exhibit power-law degree distributions. Our findings show that the majority of the considered networks are scale-free. Some networks exhibit language-specific properties determined by grammatical rules, for example networks from highly inflected languages, such as e.g. Latin, German, French and Spanish, show peaks in the degree distribution that deviate from a power law. We find that depending on the semantic relation type and the language, the link formation in semantic networks is guided by different principles. In some networks the connections are similarity-based, while in others the connections are more complementarity-based. Finally, we demonstrate how knowledge of similarity and complementarity in semantic networks can improve NLP algorithms in missing link inference.@en

A complex fractional derivative can be derived by formally extending the integer k in the kth derivative of a function, computed via Cauchy's integral, to complex α. This straightforward approach reveals fundamental problems due to inherent nonanalyticity. A consequence is that the complex fractional derivative is not uniquely defined. We explain in detail the anomalies (not closed paths, branch cut jumps) and try to interpret their meaning physically in terms of entropy, friction and deviations from ideal vector fields. Next, we present a class of non-Markovian continuous-time processes by replacing the standard derivative by a Caputo fractional derivative in the classical Chapman-Kolmogorov governing equation of a continuous-time Markov process. The fractional derivative leads to a replacement of the set of exponential base functions by a set of Mittag-Leffler functions, but also creates a complicated dependence structure between states. This fractional non-Markovian process may be applied to generalize the Markovian SIS epidemic process on a contact graph to a more realistic setting.

@en

During the outbreak of a virus, perhaps the greatest concern is the future evolution of the epidemic: How many people will be infected and which regions will be affected the most? The accurate prediction of an epidemic enables targeted disease countermeasures (e.g., allocating medical staff and quarantining). But when can we trust the prediction of an epidemic to be accurate? In this work we consider susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on networks with time-invariant spreading parameters. (For time-varying spreading parameters, our results correspond to an optimistic scenario for the predictability of epidemics.) Our contribution is twofold. First, accurate long-term predictions of epidemics are possible only after the peak rate of new infections. Hence, before the peak, only short-term predictions are reliable. Second, we define an exponential growth metric, which quantifies the predictability of an epidemic. In particular, even without knowing the future evolution of the epidemic, the growth metric allows us to compare the predictability of an epidemic at different points in time. Our results are an important step towards understanding when and why epidemics can be predicted reliably.

@en

Researchers from various scientific disciplines have attempted to forecast the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed epidemic prediction methods range from basic curve fitting methods and traffic interaction models to machine-learning approaches. If we combine all these approaches, we obtain the Network Inference-based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA). In this paper, we analyse a diverse set of COVID-19 forecast algorithms, including several modifications of NIPA. Among the algorithms that we evaluated, the original NIPA performed best at forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei, China and in the Netherlands. In particular, we show that network-based forecasting is superior to any other forecasting algorithm.

@en

We introduce a Markov Modulated Process (MMP) to describe human mobility. We represent the mobility process as a time-varying graph, where a link specifies a connection between two nodes (humans) at any discrete time step. Each state of the Markov chain encodes a certain modification to the original graph. We show that our MMP model successfully captures the main features of a random mobility simulator, in which nodes moves in a square region. We apply our MMP model to human mobility, measured in a library.

@en

In this paper, we focus on the link density in random geometric graphs (RGGs) with a distance-based connection function. After deriving the link density in D dimensions, we focus on the two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) space and show that the link density is accurately approximated by the Fréchet distribution, for any rectangular space. We derive expressions, in terms of the link density, for the minimum number of nodes needed in the 2D and 3D spaces to ensure network connectivity. These results provide first-order estimates for, e.g., a swarm of drones to provide coverage in a disaster or crowded area.

@en

How temporal modulations in functional interactions are shaped by the underlying anatomical connections remains an open question. Here, we analyse the role of structural eigenmodes, in the formation and dissolution of temporally evolving functional brain networks using resting-state magnetoencephalography and diffusion magnetic resonance imaging data at the individual subject level. Our results show that even at short timescales, phase and amplitude connectivity can partly be expressed by structural eigenmodes, but hardly by direct structural connections. Albeit a stronger relationship was found between structural eigenmodes and time-resolved amplitude connectivity. Time-resolved connectivity for both phase and amplitude was mostly characterised by a stationary process, superimposed with very brief periods that showed deviations from this stationary process. For these brief periods, dynamic network states were extracted that showed different expressions of eigenmodes. Furthermore, the eigenmode expression was related to overall cognitive performance and co-occurred with fluctuations in community structure of functional networks. These results implicate that ongoing time-resolved resting-state networks, even at short timescales, can to some extent be understood in terms of activation and deactivation of structural eigenmodes and that these eigenmodes play a role in the dynamic integration and segregation of information across the cortex, subserving cognitive functions.

@en

Epilepsy surgery is the treatment of choice for drug-resistant epilepsy patients. However, seizure-freedom is currently achieved in only 2/3 of the patients after surgery. In this study we have developed an individualized computational model based on MEG brain networks to explore seizure propagation and the efficacy of different virtual resections. Eventually, the goal is to obtain individualized models to optimize resection strategy and outcome. We have modelled seizure propagation as an epidemic process using the susceptible-infected (SI) model on individual brain networks derived from presurgical MEG. We included 10 patients who had received epilepsy surgery and for whom the surgery outcome at least one year after surgery was known. The model parameters were tuned in in order to reproduce the patient-specific seizure propagation patterns as recorded with invasive EEG. We defined a personalized search algorithm that combined structural and dynamical information to find resections that maximally decreased seizure propagation for a given resection size. The optimal resection for each patient was defined as the smallest resection leading to at least a 90% reduction in seizure propagation. The individualized model reproduced the basic aspects of seizure propagation for 9 out of 10 patients when using the resection area as the origin of epidemic spreading, and for 10 out of 10 patients with an alternative definition of the seed region. We found that, for 7 patients, the optimal resection was smaller than the resection area, and for 4 patients we also found that a resection smaller than the resection area could lead to a 100% decrease in propagation. Moreover, for two cases these alternative resections included nodes outside the resection area. Epidemic spreading models fitted with patient specific data can capture the fundamental aspects of clinically observed seizure propagation, and can be used to test virtual resections in silico. Combined with optimization algorithms, smaller or alternative resection strategies, that are individually targeted for each patient, can be determined with the ultimate goal to improve surgery outcome. MEG-based networks can provide a good approximation of structural connectivity for computational models of seizure propagation, and facilitate their clinical use.

@en

A network consists of two interdependent parts: the network topology or graph, consisting of the links between nodes and the network dynamics, specified by some governing equations. A crucial challenge is the prediction of dynamics on networks, such as forecasting the spread of an infectious disease on a human contact network. Unfortunately, an accurate prediction of the dynamics seems hardly feasible, because the network is often complicated and unknown. In this work, given past observations of the dynamics on a fixed graph, we show the contrary: Even without knowing the network topology, we can predict the dynamics. Specifically, for a general class of deterministic governing equations, we propose a two-step prediction algorithm. First, we obtain a surrogate network by fitting past observations of every nodal state to the dynamical model. Second, we iterate the governing equations on the surrogate network to predict the dynamics. Surprisingly, even though there is no similarity between the surrogate topology and the true topology, the predictions are accurate, for a considerable prediction time horizon, for a broad range of observation times, and in the presence of a reasonable noise level. The true topology is not needed for predicting dynamics on networks, since the dynamics evolve in a subspace of astonishingly low dimension compared to the size and heterogeneity of the graph. Our results constitute a fresh perspective on the broad field of nonlinear dynamics on complex networks.

@en