Risk-based and probabilistic reliability design methods are starting to be integrated into the daily geotechnical engineering practice, as shown by the current draft of EN1997 (Eurocode 7), which explicitly allows Reliability-based verification of limit states. The semi-probabilistic design methods in EN1997 are a compromise between ease of use and accuracy of the achieved reliability levels. In contrast, EN1990 (Eurocode 0) requires accurate full probabilistic design targets. An assessment to investigate if the semi probabilistic methods from EN1997 comply with the EN1990 reliability targets is therefore necessary since the link between the norms is not explicitly established.
In this study, pile foundations serve as an example to assess compatibility between the EN1990 and EN1997. The deterministic Dutch pile design approach by van Mierlo & Koppejan (1956), CPT based design method, is adapted to the semi probabilistic model pile recipe in the EN1997 draft. This thesis assesses what reliability levels are achieved by the model pile design method in draft EN1997 considering the axial bearing capacity and how these compare to the reliability targets in EN1990.
Methodology: To assess the performance of the model pile method from EN1997, the design outcome from the semi-probabilistic model pile method is compared to fully probabilistic quantification methods of the resistances and loads. Two probabilistic quantifications are used in the assessment, a Bayesian and a Student-T model. The achieved reliabilities are assessed with both the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Additional insight into the influence of different parameters is provided with sensitivity analysis and the calibration of partial factors. The assessment was applied in two case studies located in the Netherlands.
In both case studies, the EN1997 designs resulted in reliability levels in good agreement with the reliability targets stated in EN 1990. This suggests an agreement between the semi-probabilistic and the full probabilistic models if sufficient CPTs are used. In both case studies, EN1997 designs accounted for more model uncertainty than the probabilistic models suggest, thus partial model factor (γRd) in EN1997 may be conservative. EN1997 covers spatial variability and uncertainty due to limited observations with the correlation factor (ζ, a factor that transforms calculated to representative values, and the partial resistance factor (γRc). The coverage of uncertainty with these two factors seems to be rather low, especially for situations with few CPTs available (less than 10), although the results seem to depend strongly on the degree of spatial variability in the CPT field. In the case of homogeneous soil conditions between observations, EN1997 design methods led to over-conservative designs for low numbers of observations. If the variability between limited observations (less than 10 CPTs) was high, designs are assessed to be less reliable than EN1990 requires.
Overall, the results suggest good agreement of the semi-probabilistic design methods from EN1997 with the reliability targets defined in EN1990, for designs based on sufficient observations. The sensitivity analysis and isolation of the resistance uncertainty showed for the two cases that the uncertainty of the resistance has the dominating influence on the reliability of the piles, suggesting a low impact of complex stochastic load models. The latter finding suggests that probabilistic treatment of the resistance may be sufficient for assessing pile reliability in practice, while design values could be used for the loads.