This book covers a wide range of topics that involve the use of probability to solve problems in engineering design and research. Although it is relevant for a wide range of disciplines, it draws heavily on the fields of civil engineering, environmental engineering and the geosciences. Specific topics include risk analysis, probabilistic design, reliability-based design (component and system reliability). Future versions of this book will include additional applications of probability theory related to continuous distributions, extreme value analysis and expanded chapters on component and system reliability. A number of practical examples and exercises are included, both analytic and numerical, some of which use an interactive feature that allows Python code to be used in the web browser without any additional software installation.@en

In a world affected by climate change and sea-level rise, intense storms are expected to become more frequent in the future. This implies that our coastal protections will be more often and more intensely affected by overtopping waves, potentially endangering the safety of our coastal communities. The objective of the present study is to investigate the hazard to people/pedestrians by postwave overtopping flows over an inclined surface, simulating a coastal dike.@en

Reliability analysis is used to evaluate the probability of failure of a flood defence embankment subject to a blanket layer foundation condition, where high seepage forces increase the likelihood of internal erosion and slope failure. The stochastic effect of hydraulic conductivity and blanket layer thickness, in addition to soil shear strength properties, is considered for the underseepage and slope stability failure modes using the first-order reliability method. The blanket layer thickness controls the factor of safety (F) and reliability, followed by the unit weight of the blanket layer. Despite variation over orders of magnitude, hydraulic conductivity is less important than and comparable to the effect of soil shear strength parameters. Aleatory uncertainty is evaluated using fragility curves and a confidence interval on the expected value of F (stochastic F). Uncertainty in probability distribution parameters allows quantification of a subset of epistemic uncertainty and is used to construct confidence intervals for fragility.

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