Quantification of parameter and calibration uncertainty in morphological modelling

Journal article (2018)

Authors

J. Kroon Coastal Engineering - CEG
M.A. de Schipper Coastal Engineering - CEG
S.G.J. Aarninkhof Coastal Engineering - CEG
Research Group
Coastal Engineering (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2018 J. Kroon, M.A. de Schipper, S.G.J. Aarninkhof
DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.sediment.27
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Published Date

01-01-2018

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Coastal Engineering

Abstract

There are different sources of uncertainty in morphological modeling on time scales of years. The standard deterministic modelling approach does not provide any information on the amount of uncertainty contained in a forecast. This lack of information could provide a false sense of accuracy and skill. Quantitative insight in these prediction uncertainties is therefore of crucial importance for decision making in coastal engineering and management.

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