Geospatial analysis of Indonesia's bankable utility-scale solar PV potential using elements of project finance

Abstract

Geospatial analysis is useful for mapping the potential of renewables like solar PV. However, recent studies do not address PV’s bankable potential for which project financing can be secured. This paper proposes a framework that incorporates project finance into geospatial analyses to obtain the bankable potential of renewables. We demonstrate our framework for Indonesia, and compare the bankable potential with the socio-economic potential mostly used in literature. Using average inputs On average, the technical potential is 12,200 TWh/year and the socio-economic potential is 152.7 TWh/year if capped by 2030 demand (34% coverage). Considering PV’s financing risks, PV’s bankable potential is 16.0 TWh under current conditions if capped by 2030 demand (3.6% coverage). Both economic potentials are mainly in East Indonesia and absent on Java due to tariffs and land availability. For the bankable potential, the risk perception by banks and investors is another key influence. With a feed-in tariff of 11.5 US¢(2021)/kWh and temporary lift of import restrictions, the bankable potential is 23 TWh if capped by 2030 demand (5.2% coverage) and spreads to Java. For more widespread bankability, additional temporary measures are recommended until the PV’s costs have decreased further and trust by financial institutions has increased.