Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Shuai Wang Imperial College London
Ralf Toumi Imperial College London
Qinghua Ye Coastal Engineering - CEG , Deltares
Q. Ke Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
J.D. Bricker Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG , University of Michigan
Zhan Tian Southern University of Science and Technology
Laixiang Sun SOAS University of London, University of Maryland
Research Group
Coastal Engineering (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2021 Shuai Wang, Ralf Toumi, Qinghua Ye, Q. Ke, J.D. Bricker, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1058
More Info
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Published Date

2021

Language

English

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Coastal Engineering

Abstract

It has been shown that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) has been increasing together with a poleward migration of TC track. However, their relative importance to TC surge at landfall remains unknown. Here we examine the sensitivity of TC surge in Shanghai to landfall location and intensity with a new dynamical modelling framework. We find a surge sensitivity of 0.8 m (°N)−1 to landfall location, and 0.1 m (m s−1)−1 to wind speed in Shanghai during landfall. The landfall location and intensity are comparably important to surge variation. However, based on a plausible range of reported trends of TC poleward migration and intensity, the potential surge hazard due to poleward migration is estimated to be about three times larger than that by intensity change. The long-term surge risk in Shanghai is therefore substantially more sensitive to changes of TC track and landfall location than intensity. This may also be true elsewhere and in the future.