Upscaling of coastal flood assessments for reef-fronted small island developing states and investigating the adaptive capacity to coastal flooding in the context of São Tomé

Abstract

Around the world, there are 58 Small Island Developing States (SIDS). What these SIDS generally have in common is that they are very susceptible to different natural hazards, among which coastal flooding. In order to address this issue, adaptation measures are needed. In order to prioritize adaptation efforts when considering these islands at a large scale, it is important to obtain an overview of which islands are most vulnerable to coastal flooding. This requires a large-scale assessment of coastal flooding for these islands. Such a large-scale assessment introduces different challenges, that were looked into in the hydraulic engineering part of this thesis. A first challenge is the availability op topography data for these islands. For most islands, only satellite-based DEMs are available. The accuracy of different satellite-based DEMs was assessed by comparing them to more accurate elevation data for 11 different islands. It could be concluded that in general, the TanDEM-X DEM is the most accurate for terrains with milder slopes, and the ALOS DEM for terrains with steeper slopes. Furthermore, the DEM error was found to be strongly correlated with forested and builded areas. Especially the DEM error in builded areas poses a problem for coastal flood assessments, as these are the main areas of interest in such assessments. Therefore, a building-correction method based on data from Open Street Map (OSM) was proposed and implemented. It could be concluded that the building-correction can both in- and decrease the DEM error, depending on the other error sources that are present in the DEM. A second challenge that is introduced when upscaling coastal flood assessments, is the used method for flood modelling. In the context of this thesis, a simple flood model (called the JBIW model) was developed. This model is a combination of the Janssen-Battjes model for short wave dissipation and the IW-method, which was originally developed for large-scale river flooding calculations. The JBIW model was tested in 1D and compared to other flood models. The results indicated that the simple flood model can be used to obtain a first estimate of coastal flooding, but is not accurate enough to predict exact values of the maximum water levels. Furthermore, the JBIW model was implemented in 2D for the island of Ebeye. The model was combined both with accurate elevation data and with building-corrected satellite-based DEMs. The results indicated that the error introduced by the use of the simple JBIW model were much smaller than the errors introduced by the use of the satellite-based DEMs. This indicates that further research focusing on the upscaling of coastal flood assessments for reef-fronted SIDS should focus on obtaining more accurate elevation data for these islands.
Apart from allocating resources to the SIDS in the most efficient way, it is important that the resources that are allocated to a certain island are used effectively. There are different ways to help these islands. An interesting approach is to focus on increasing the adaptive capacity of the SIDS. In the context of the science communication part of this thesis it was investigated whether the simple JBIW model could be used to increase the adaptive capacity to coastal flooding in the context of São Tomé. In order to do this, a theoretical framework was developed that aims to provide practical guidance in the assessment of the (barriers to the) adaptive capacity of a certain system. This framework was applied to the context of São Tomé to map the adaptive capacity to coastal flooding of the system and obtain an overview of the most important barriers to this adaptive capacity. Subsequently, it was assessed which barriers could be addressed with a tool based on the JBIW model. These barriers were used as the starting point for an initial design of the tool interface.