Late-stage diversion risk assessment for high dams considering early initial impoundment

Abstract

Early initial impoundment can generate additional revenue but bring more flood risk in late-stage construction diversion. In view of the possible flood risk and catastrophic consequences caused by high dam failures induced by early impoundment, a comprehensive assessment is proposed. Taking the Lianghekou high rockfill dam on the Yalong River, southwest China, as an example, this study established the late-stage diversion risk model and predicted the failure probabilities for the original, 15 days ahead, and 30 days ahead schemes varied with the initial impoundment time using the Monte Carlo method. Then, considering overtopping-induced gradual breaking of rockfill dams, the NWS dam-break flood forecasting model (DAMBRK) was used to estimate the break development and the outflow hydrograph. Due to no significant differences being found in the outflow hydrographs of the three schemes, life loss was used an index for the consequences of inundation. Combining the failure probability, life loss, and early impoundment revenues brought by earlier power generation, a satisfied initial impoundment scheme was acquired using the multi-objective decision model. The results revealed this method can find a reasonable initial impoundment time in view of the late-stage diversion risk assessment.