Improvement of the current assessment method of multifunctional dikes

Abstract

The Netherlands faces major housing shortages. The total housing shortage is 390 thousand homes and this is expected to increase in the near future because fewer building permits have been issued in recent years. By 2030, the Netherlands will need to have almost a million new houses. To solve this problem, it is essential to build more residential buildings in the near future, but limited space is available. Therefore, the focus shifts to traditionally less conventional spots that potentially can be used to construct residential areas.

One of the proposed solutions is to create residential buildings near dikes, thereby using the dikes not only to combat flood risks but also to relieve pressure on the housing crisis in the Netherlands. To check if buildings can be built on or next to a dike, the assessment method of the Legal Assessment Instrumentation is currently used. However, only a basic assessment is prescribed for this, which is a very conservative approach. This conservative approach often leads to the building not being built or to overdesigning of the dike and thus higher expenses than necessary.

The objective of this thesis is to develop a level I reliability assessment method for multifunctional dikes containing a structure, leading to a less conservative approach than the basic assessment of the Legal Assessment Instrumentation (WBI2017).

First, the possibilities of construction near dikes were studied per water board. The possibilities for building near dikes are prescribed in the water board regulations, previously known as the by-law (Keur). Although the water board regulations vary for each water board, the rules regarding building near dikes are consistent, and almost nothing regarding construction can be done in the profile of free space. Interviews were also held with water boards. During these interviews, the regulations were discussed, including the non-technical obstacles with regards to building near dikes and solutions for them were proposed.

The biggest concern is regarding the management of the houses that would be part of the flood defence. One of the proposed solutions is to use people to regularly send photos to ensure the quality of the parts of the house that will function as flood defence or to use sensors which could measure deformations. This could save much time for the dike managers.

Next, it was determined what failure mechanisms can be affected by the presence of a building on or near a dike. The failure probabilities of macro-stability, piping and overtopping differ when a building is placed on or next to a dike and have been considered in the calculation of the failure probability of the dike. It has been argued by means of an event tree that the absence of a house has a 0.1% probability of occurring.

Subsequently, a case was analysed probabilistically using FORM analyses to demonstrate the difference in failure probability between the current and the proposed schematisation. This showed a 75% reduction in failure probability for the assumed cross-section compared to the current schematisation. The effect of new construction on a standard dike profile can both have positive and negative effects on the failure probability of the dike section depending on the situation. Compensatory measures can be taken to reduce the probability of failure.

Since it is time-consuming to perform probabilistic calculations for every situation, it was decided to create a Level I reliability assessment. Based on the probabilistic calculations, partial safety factors were derived that take the probability of the disappearance of a house into account. These partial factors were calculated per stochastic variable. This allows for a Level I reliability calculation to determine whether a dike cross-section with a house meets the required failure probability of the dike section.

It is concluded that incorporating the proposed level I calculation with adapted partial factors has a different impact for each situation but can, in some cases, have a 75% reduction in failure probability. This is based on the case study, which is elaborated extensively in the report. The developed level I reliability method ensures that existing buildings near houses are assessed more realistically compared to the current WBI assessment, which assumes a gap at the location of the dike. As a result, when this method is used, more dike cross-sections with buildings will meet stability requirements as it is less conservative than the current assessment, which only takes into account the negative aspects of the building. This means that fewer dike sections will be rejected, potentially saving both money and reducing inconveniences. For the design of new structures near a dike, this Level I reliability calculation can provide insight into possible locations for construction in the cross-section of the dike and the potential dimensions of the house. With this method it can quickly be demonstrated whether a multifunctional dike still meets the dike's failure probability requirement, which can also lead to an increase in building possibilities near dikes, as extensive customized assessments are no longer necessary.