Decision-making by network operators in the Dutch energy transition

Abstract

The energy transition is a pressing and widely debated topic in society and is creating global challenges. As the switch is made to sustainable energy carriers, more pressure is being put on to our electricity grids and the network operators managing them. They, however, face the uncertain future capacity needs of the grid and operate in a complex socio-technical system. The energy transition will require many collaborations and interactions which suggests a new decision-making process to facilitate the energy transition. An insight into the current decision-making processes of these network operators is however still lacking in literature and remains an open question. Therefore, in this thesis, I develop a conceptual model of the decision-making process by network operators for long term decisions under uncertain conditions. To achieve this aim, I first collected data about the decision-making system using semi-structured interviews of decision makers in the Dutch energy network. I then investigated models of decision-making in policy making, economic theory, and psychology literature and eventually chose the recognition primed decision-making (RPDM) model as fitting the most requirements. The model is built step by step and adapted to describe the analyzed decision-making system. The model is ultimately conceptualized in three layers: interactions between decision makers, individual decision-making, and changing problem perception. Significantly, the model is adapted to include the concept of a problem perception. The model has some limitations, as the face validation was not included in the modelling process and several mechanisms remain unspecified, such as the interactions between decision makers. Two decision situations that network operators themselves described facing in their current decision-making were used to run the model qualitatively. Given the limitations, the model was still able to provide insight into the decision-making of network operators. The model describes that decision makers respond to uncertainty by looking for more information, posing question to what extent reflection on the problem perception are also used to cope with uncertainty. The problem perception influences the model substantially, suggesting that a change in perception would make decisions such as the dilemma of prioritizing clients more adequate. Further implementation of the model is recommended to provide insight into the decision-making process to help facilitate the energy transition.