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L. Scholten

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Master thesis (2026) - S.F. Hoogendijk, G. de Vries, L. Scholten, K.P. Bellmann, G.J. de Maagd
The vast majority of commuters drives alone to work, with an average occupancy rate of 1,05 persons per car (Knoope, 2023). This excessive car use not only leads to competition for limited capacity, such as traffic congestion and parking pressure, but also contributes to one of today’s grand societal challenges: climate change. Reducing single-occupancy vehicle use in daily commuting presents an opportunity to lower polluting emissions, such as greenhouse gases (GHG), and address capacity issues. One solution proposed by scholars and policy-makers is to promote carpooling: the sharing of a ride between people from a different household. To achieve an increase in the occupancy rate of cars, behaviour change is required. However, behaviour change is not easily achieved. Although several policy measures have been implemented in the past, carpooling has not been adopted on a large scale. In 2025, only 5% of the population engaged in carpooling, which is a reduction compared to 2024 (van Essen et al., 2026). To develop effective policy measures, the understanding of the system needs to be enhanced. Existing literature is mainly focused on individual decision-making and solely incorporates a commuter perspective. A multi-actor perspective and system-level approach is missing. This approach is needed, as mobility choices are made within a complex system of multiple actors who interact and affect the decision-making process of citizens (Cascetta et al., 2007; Enserink et al., 2022). This study addresses this knowledge gap by adopting a novel approach of integrating behavioural science and systems thinking. Individual behavioural de-
terminants and multi-actor interactions are combined to provide an overview of the system as a whole. This study answers the following research question:

'What psychological and contextual factors influence the adoption of carpooling among commuters, considering dynamic interactions between actors in the system?’

To answer this research question, a multi-method approach is used. First, existing literature is reviewed to provide an overview of the psychological and contextual factors identified in scholarly research. To structure the literature review, the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) is used to categorise the behavioural determinants in overarching domains (Atkins et al., 2017). A behavioural determinant is an underlying factor of behaviour. Second, twenty semi-structured interviews are conducted to gain insight into the behaviours and perspectives of various actors in the field. This allows for a deeper understanding of the behavioural determinants found in literature and provides insight into the dynamic interactions between multiple actors. Third, a behavioural system map (BSM) is constructed to provide an overview of the system and the behavioural dynamics within. This BSM can be used as a starting point to develop effective policy measures. 

The behavioural determinants that have been found in literature and the interview data enhance the understanding of commuter behaviour on an individual level. The domains ’beliefs about consequences’, ’environmental context and resources’, ’social influences’, and ’emotion’ are all frequently cited in both the literature and interviews. However, there are some notable differences. The domain ’intentions’ is a prominent domain according to literature, while no interview participants acknowledged ’intentions’ as a behavioural determinant. In contrast, the domains ’knowledge’, ’reinforcement’, ’memory, attention, and decision processes’, and ’behavioural regulation’ are frequently cited by interview participants, while they are hardly mentioned in literature. These differences can be attributed to the specific scope of this study. Overall, the behavioural analysis has provided a comprehensive overview of the behavioural determinants that influence individual decision-making.

In addition to enrichment of the behavioural determinants, the interviews have revealed eight key behavioural dynamics that occur within the system, also referred to as themes. Together with the individual behavioural determinants, these themes provide insight into the system as a whole. The following themes are identified:
1. Digital platform dependency of carpooling
2. Financial dependencies, subsidies, and incentives
3. Knowledge sharing, communication, and promotion
4. Multi-level trust as a key driver to carpool adoption
5. Resistance based on lack of control and the pressure to socialise
6. Dependencies on the structural and social environment
7. Integration of carpooling in the mobility system
8. Fragmented roles and absence of shared visions across multiple actors

The behavioural determinants and behavioural dynamics are both represented in the BSM. The BSM has revealed seven feedback loops. Based on these feedback loops, six leverage points are defined. These levers can be used to intervene or change the system. The following levers are identified: 
1. Centralise knowledge
2. Enhance sustainability perspective
3. Set up a business case
4. Reassure commuters
5. Establish a carpool network
6. Incentivise commuters

To address the first leverage point, it is recommended to develop a central knowledge platform that enables professionals to share knowledge and informs commuters on the advantages of carpooling and available facilities. This knowledge platform could also be used to inform employers on sustainable mobility, addressing the second lever. In addition, objectives on the amount of CO2 emissions could be defined to limit the environmental impact of work-related mobility. For the third lever 'set up a business case' it is important to understand the broad effects of carpooling and the provision of subsidies. It is recommended to complete a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA) and assess the effectiveness of governmental subsidies. To reassure commuters (leverage point 4), it is suggested to restructure the digital platform and display exemplary behaviour. To address the fifth leverage point, policy measures that promote the usage of ride-matching apps could be developed, such as providing financial rewards. Whereas the fifth lever is focused on app users, the last lever is directed at commuters in general, including people who do not have access to or are not willing to use an app. For this sixth lever, it is recommended to incentivise commuters through differentiation of travel cost compensation, preferential parking, or the provision of a shared company car. Together, these levers and recommended policy measures provide a starting point for policy-makers to design policy that encourages carpooling among commuters.

This study provides an overview of the behavioural determinants that influence individual decision-making, reveals key behavioural dynamics that influence the adoption of carpooling, and presents six leverage points that can be used to develop effective policy measures. Overall, this study enriches the understanding of dynamic interactions that influence the adoption of carpooling among commuters.
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