Indonesia has ambitious targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 29 to 41% by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. The residential sector in Indonesia consumes close to fifty percent of the country’s overall electricity demand. In the last decade, the residential demand for power has doubled, indicating a substantial rise. As a country with more than 17,000 islands, it is crucial to tackle the global warming implications including rising sea levels, significant drought risk, and rainfall fluctuations due to increased emissions arising from the surging energy consumption of Indonesia. Renewable energy installations, especially solar rooftop, and energy efficiency initiatives are some effective strategies to reduce Indonesia’s household emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to study the decarbonisation potential of the residential sector’s supply and demand sides through energy-efficient appliances, efficient building envelope design, and rooftop PV deployment. This report majorly addresses the research gap in evaluating the impact of continuous revision to appliance performance standards and the impact of current efficiency standards fixed by the government. To answer the research problem, three scenarios from 2023 to 2030 are designed; business as usual, government policy, and ambitious. Using the bottom-up stock model method, the projected electricity consumption of four appliances (air conditioner, refrigerator, rice cooker, and LED lamps) was determined. For rooftop PV, the electricity production was forecasted using the PVwatts software, and scenarios were created based on government targets, and considering the high rooftop PV growth in Vietnam. Finally, the policy recommendations were proposed after analysing the electricity saved, mitigated emissions, and generating costs saved in these scenarios from the residential sector.
The analysis of Indonesia’s residential demand sector revealed that efficient building envelope and appliance alone can cut the residential sector’s electricity use by 18% by 2030. In addition, it was observed that the energy consumption of appliances could stabilise by 2030 as a consequence of aggressive energy efficiency policy measures. Among the four appliances analysed, air conditioners provide the largest energy savings (about 60 percent) due to their higher energy use and greater household penetration in coming years as a result of urbanisation and higher living standards. Existing mandated efficiency standards for refrigerators are well below the average efficiency in the market, preventing energy savings and market transformation to- wards efficient appliances. Significant financial savings owing to the elimination of fossil fueled power generation due to demand-side interventions amount to two billion US dollars. While analysing the supply side of Indonesia’s residential sector, it was observed that in ambitious scenario for rooftop PV may reach 79 GW by 2030 which would lead to decarbonisation of the supply side of residential side by 50%. In the optimistic scenario, the rooftop PV penetration in households could reach 64% by 2030, considering 1 kWp per house and the total rooftop area required for rooftop PV could be around 250 million square metres. The savings on the supply side resulting from the elimination of fossil fuel generation are close to 6 billion dollars. Considering the demand and supply interventions, the net demand for energy from the grid in the residential sector of Indonesia could be 165 TWh, 130 TWh, and 57 TWh under the three different decarbonisation scenarios. These measures can cut the net electricity consumption
from grid in the residential sector by 65%. These demand and supply solutions would enable Indonesia to achieve at least 20 percent of its NDC target by 2030, which is crucial given that the current emission contribution of residential buildings in Indonesia is close to 16%. The results clearly demonstrate the enormous potential for decarbonising the residential sector in Indonesia, both on the supply and demand sides.
This analysis resulted in some policy recommendations, one of which is that Indonesia could revise energy performance thresholds for appliances every two years as energy savings could double as compared to a scenario following the current revision cycle. The current efficiency standard for refrigerator is non impactful and may be ratcheted up soon. Like in the case of Vietnam, the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) could potentially increase the deployment of rooftop PV, so it is suggested to implement FiT for rooftop PV in Indonesia. For further research, it is suggested that financial constraints and economic impact of energy efficiency solutions from consumers’ perspective could be explored, energy savings from other widely used appliances like fans, CFL lamps could be investigated and the impact of setting minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for rooftop PV in Indonesia could be further analysed.

Indonesia has a severe problem of fossil fuel dependency, making it become one the world’s larger carbon emission contributor. At the same time, the growing population will increase the energy demand in the future. Thus, in order to meet the energy demand and decrease the carbon emission, the government together with PLN as the state electricity company will committed to implement carbon neutral targets by 2060. Additional of 413 GW installed power capacity will be necessary in which 308 GW generated from renewable energy. Indonesia has many renewable energy alternatives that can be utilized such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydropower. Among various renewable energy alternatives, hydropower has emerged as one of the means to achieve the aforementioned targets. Indonesia has a hydropower potential of around 75 GW from large hydropower and 19.4 GW from small hydropower, meanwhile, due to a number of barriers, hydropower contributed only 7% from installed large-scale hydropower and 2% from installed small-scale power plants.

In order to reach the government’s goals, further study is needed to better understand the hydropower potential in Indonesia. Hence, the aim of this research is to quantify the potential of hydropower for Indonesia to find the possible location based on the economic consideration and to understand the positive influence of hydropower application. The analyses will be done using GIS-based modelling approach based on three DEM sources with 3 different resolutions, namely DEMNAS (0.27 arcseconds), USGS (1 arcsecond) and MERIT (3 arcseconds). The gross theoretical potential will be calculated based on the river discharge and the head of every pixel of the DEM. Further, the technical potential could be obtained by eliminating the output of theoretical potential with contraints area. Subsequently, the cost components (e.g investment and operational cost) will be added to the model to quantify the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The potential location that has LCOE lower the cost of power generation.

Based on the analysis, the theoretical potential in Indonesia ranges for approximately 159 GW to 182 GW, or in annual energy production amounts to 1400 TWh to 1600 TWh. Subsequently, the technical potential after eliminating the constraints area decreased to around 550 TWh (63 GW) – 700 TWh (80 GW). On the other hand, based on the technical potential results, the LCOE ranges from 1 to 69 cent USD/kWh. However, only around 45% of the total technical potential is economically feasible. Thus, the hydropower potential lowered to 240 TWh (10 GW) – 690 TWh (38 GW). According the results, hydropower could cover 9% to 25% of the total required additional capacity planned by PLN and could reduce the carbon emission around 90% compared to the carbon emission of fossil fuels. Since this study used three different DEM resolutions, the output of the analyses varies depending on the DEM used. Based on the results, higher resolution DEM could delineate river shape better and thus the location of estimated hydropower potential location could be more accurate. However, DEM with larger pixel size could detect better the medium and large hydropower potential