Gedragsinzichten zijn onontbeerlijk om te komen tot effectief beleid, de mens is immers geen homo economicus. Dat geldt ­echter niet alleen voor uitvoeringsvraagstukken, maar ook voor het ontwerpen van beleid. Hier ligt er nog een groot onbenut potentieel.@en

Errata@en

Growing global demand for sustainable development places immense pressure on the construction industry to select and promote sustainable construction practices. The selection of sustainable construction practices is a challenging task, as there are numerous variables and uncertainties involved in the concept of sustainability and a consistent and widely accepted framework for assessment and evaluation seems to be lacking. Based on an extensive literature review on sustainability, sustainable construction was redefined and evaluation frameworks were identified for comparison. Furthermore, a conceptual framework is proposed by identifying specific indicators and criteria relating to the objectives of sustainable construction (sociocultural, economic, technical and environmental) to evaluate the sustainability of construction practices. Recommendations for the application of the proposed framework is also presented.@en

Policy of Multi-Actor Systems is an introduction into the art of craft of problem exploration and problem structuring. It positions policy analysis as a scientific discipline focused on systems analysis in a multi-actor context to support better informed decision-making. The approach presented in this book is considered to be the cornerstone of the curricula of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology and underlies the research on (the governance of) socio-technical systems. Systems thinking applied in a multi-actor environment and its inherent multi-disciplinary character is what makes this work stand out from traditional hard- and soft systems approaches. The core of the book is dedicated to systems analysis, actor- or stakeholder-analysis and discusses methods for dealing with uncertainty. These analytical activities combined lead to a rich problem description and to plans for further research. Due to the stepwise approach this book serves as a basis for any problem analysis both for our bachelor and master students, our alumni worldwide and any interested practitioners.@en

The GHG-emissions of the transport sector are still increasing. This trend isaccompanied by the strong growth of the e-commerce sector, leading to moretransport movements on our road networks. In order to mitigate theexternalities of the e-commerce related parcel delivery market and try tomake it more sustainable, the following research question has been drafted:How could the last mile parcel delivery process become more sustainable,i.e. how to minimise traffic impacts and emissions, while maintaining thesocial and economic benefits of e-commerce and home deliveries?To answer the research question, this study follows a Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Approach (MAMCA), which is defined especially for large projectsthat require high stakeholder involvement. Based on a stakeholder analysisand an analysis of their points of view, a sustainability framework has beendefined. This framework consists of a set of criteria along which several‘more sustainable’ last mile alternatives have been assessed. The mostimportant criteria are the reduction of GHG emissions, delivery time, costsand customer satisfaction.This study assesses the costs and benefits of the implementation of cargobikes, electric vans, Urban Consolidation Centres (UCCs), crowdsourcingsystems, and evening and night time deliveries. First, a Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) method is applied to identify thealternative(s) that offer the highest utility (most benefits). According to theSMART analysis, parcel lockers, UCCs (with electric transport) and nightdelivery are the most beneficial alternatives for a sustainable last mile in alldifferent cases (best-, middle- and worst-cases). After implementing thesealternatives in a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) model and conductingcarefully designed experiments with it, the conclusion can be drawn thatimplementing or expanding the parcel locker infrastructure significantlyenhances the operational efficiency. Furthermore, these lockers can easily bereplenished by night, which reduces the traffic impact of parcel delivery evenfurther.@en

Water issues can be a root cause of political instability, but even in times of crisis, and especially in the aftermath of war, water management also requires and contributes towards co-operation. Within the complexity of military stabilisation operations, water management has been identified as a potentially suitable crisis and conflict management tool. Therefore, a comprehensive and appropriate approach to apply water throughout the entire process of transition from a conflict, post-conflict or unstable region towards stability, peace and prosperity is desirable. During the Dutch military stabilisation mission in the Afghan province of Uruzgan, water management was applied effectively by the Netherlands Army as an instrument to create stability and co-operation in the conflict and post-conflict period. Based on this experience, a Comprehensive Water Intervention Framework is presented in this paper. By integrating water management, military, development, diplomacy and co-operation approaches, this framework provides practical guidance for policymakers, mission planners and field officers. Its implementation follows after the initial military intervention and within the stabilisation operation, as a mechanism contributing to peacekeeping and development efforts. The framework can also be further improved, most notably by integrating land management and experiences gained from its implementation in civil-military exercises and from its actual application in stabilisation operations.

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The Kenyan government has made significant advances in water resources management at the local authority (county) level with little or no cooperation at the drainage basin level. Research on critical determinants of cooperation amongst transboundary water negotiation teams is limited. In this paper, we assess whether personal attribute diversity (PAD) is a stronger factor than demographic diversity (gender, age, and education play) in determining whether the negotiation team will cooperate or make unilateral actions. We use a negotiation game to study decisions taken by water policymakers. After that, we conduct a multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) to assess the influence of PAD, gender, age, and education on water negotiation outcomes. The findings indicate that PAD plays a significant role in determining whether the group will cooperate or compete. Gender, education, and age barely influence the outcome. Only upon removal of the PAD variable do we see an increase in the discriminant power of gender and education. Age has minimal influence on the negotiation outcomes. We apply the research at a lower level of governance (Nzoia River Basin). However, results might be extrapolated to a bigger basin, like the Nile Basin, through future multiple level analysis which takes account of the complex socio-technical systems.

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Kenya Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) Impact Report indicates a stagnation in water coverage at 55 percent, for the last three years, contrary to the 2015 target of 80 percent. One main reason for the stagnation is weak cross-county cooperation between hydrologically interdependent governments. WASREB has little guidance on what indicators to use to enhance cross-county water cooperation. Through literature review, we assess whether the UN-Water methodology for assessing Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6.5.2 would provide useful guidelines. Based on the literature review outcomes, we design a water policy game known as Nzoia WeShareIt. After that, we play seven-game sessions in four county governments (Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, and Trans Nzoia), on 11-22 July 2016. We use the in-game and post-game questionnaire data to measure learning outcomes on interdependence and cooperation. The findings indicate that Nzoia WeShareIt policy game as a form of experiential learning increased understanding on the value of cross-county cooperation. The study constitutes a practical guideline to WASREB and a quick reference tool to be explored when designing indicators to monitor cross-county cooperation. We also propose a mixed method approach that incorporates team interdependence indicators as distinct and separate indicators from cooperation. Moreover, we recommend strengthening SDG 6.5.2 indicator to measure transboundary water cooperation inputs, processes and outcomes.@en

In the last four decades, the Dutch drinking water industry has undergone two major policy reforms, namely the consolidation of the industry by stimulating mergers and the introduction of yardstick competition by applying benchmarks. This paper addresses the question of whether these two instruments have improved productivity. Productivity changes are derived from an estimated cost function. The effects of average scale as well as the introduction of a form of yardstick competition on productivity are formally tested. Estimation is conducted on the basis of time series data in the period 1980-2015. Industry consolidation has taken place over a long period of time. Yardstick competition was introduced in 1997 on a voluntary basis. It shows that total factor productivity was rather stable in the period 1980-1998. Since 1998, annual productivity growth has been substantial (about 0.6% on average). There was an obvious break point in 1998, providing clear evidence that the introduction of the benchmark instrument has affected productivity change. Moreover, there are various indications that benchmarking has also contributed to improving quality and sustainability. We could not find any empirical evidence for the hypothesis that consolidation of the industry has improved productivity.@en

Residential energy efficiency improvements often have a smaller effect than expected. Although there is agreement on the existence of this effect, called the rebound effect, there is no agreement on the size of the effect. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of using serious games to assess this effect. We used a game in which participants play home owners who manage their households in terms of energy consumption. Results of experiments with 50 players showed signs of the rebound effect when players with a low efficiency house reduced their energy consumption more than players with a high efficiency house. In addition, some issues related to previous studies were addressed, such as the possibility to perform an ex-ante assessment and to conduct the study in a controlled environment. Calculations of the size of the rebound effect depended on the approach used to determine the expected effect and showed differences between appliances.

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Nzoia river basin county governments barely cooperate in water resources management to jointly increase the basin's food and energy productivity levels, due to limited trust. In this paper, we propose a game-based approach that can be replicated in any river basin, to assess trust and collaboration processes. In particular, we used the pre-game, in-game, and post-game assessment results to assess the relationship between Cooperation and Competition; Trust and Trustworthiness; Trust and Distrust; and (Dis) trust, Complexity, and Uncertainty. The initial assessment of respondents' propensity to trust (PTS) was divided into two variables (trust and trustworthiness) while adopting the unidimensional view of trust and distrust. We later examined whether we could separate the two constructs using a multidimensional scaling (MDS) technique known as the ALSCAL procedure. There are potentially significant results. Namely, that: trustworthiness and trust are not complementary; both cooperation and competition coexisted and increased throughout the game; more profound complexity and uncertainty led to an increment in trust, and reduced complexity and uncertainty led to a decrease in distrust. Based on the results and discussions, we provide recommendations for further research on trust, trustworthiness, and distrust in the river basin management context.

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In early 2016, we designed Nzoia WeShareIt game to support joint decision-making, in a complex river basin, through policy practice in the form of water allocation trade-offs between food, energy, and nature. Nzoia WeShareIt game is a multi-player hybrid cooperation game. This concept report is a detailed description of the Nzoia WeShareIt game elements and their application. The report comprises of four main parts: the introduction, the body which details the game elements, a section dealing with the publications, which is the main project outcome and the appendices. In this report, the game elements section consists of fifteen parts. The first part is the introduction, followed by a description of the fourteen game elements. Two critical components of the game elements section are the explanation of the game contents and the game cycles including the steps of play. The five steps of play are harvest, trade, payment of the penalty, invest and re-allocate. The appendices comprise of three parts: an explanation of the transition from BIOMAdneSS to WeShareIt, a detailed description of the changes we made when transitioning to Nile and Nzoia WeShareIt and a picture collage. The picture collage consists of various pictures of the Nile WeShareIt session and the seven Nzoia WeShareIt game sessions. Finally, we provide a list of bibliography.@en

Environmental legislation in China prescribes Public Participation in Environmental Impact Assessment to be arranged by the initiator of a project. Nevertheless concerns of effected citizens are often neglected and not addressed in the impact studies. The rising public environmental awareness and realization of health risks related to the proposed activity can lead to outbreaks of public protests and mass events, which may result in cancellation of such projects. In this paper some recent cases of contestation in China are presented and their impact on environmental decision-making analysed. It shows that the Chinese public does have an impact on policy making and stimulates the government to sharpen environmental regulation and procedures.@en

The Nile river traverses eleven countries in Africa. It is the source of life for millions of people and its aquifers, tributaries, lakes, and surface waters provide valuable nature (wetlands), drinking water, hydropower and it provides large areas of arid soils with irrigation water. Rapid urbanization, overexploitation and the construction of dams are leading to changes in the water regime and affect the quality of the ecosystems services. A participatory scenario building exercise was held in Jinja Uganda in 2014. This approach resulted in four scenarios for the future of the basin presented to the Ministers at the Nile Basin Development Forum in 2015. In this paper the scenario method, the resulting four scenarios and their impacts are presented. @en

Research into complex socio-technical systems requires a multi-disciplinary approach in which the role of actors, public values, and technical innovation are integrated. The research is aimed at systems design and the development of institutional rules for the operation of the technical innovation, taking multiple actor interests and public values into account. This multidisciplinary approach entails that research designs range from grounded theory approaches towards discrete event simulations; and from case study analysis towards agent based modelling. Consequently, the academic toolbox of research methods is wide and knowledge and creativity is required to develop appropriate research designs. Therefore, within our master programmes on complex socio-technical systems, our challenge was to make our students more aware of the competing and complementing theories, research methods, and design approaches that are at the base of complex socio-technical systems design and analysis. Teaching academic research skills offers the master student the means to develop a suitable and feasible research design for their master thesis project. Ultimately, these skills enable graduated students to critically assess research performed by third parties during their professional careers. The course we developed goes beyond the teaching of single research methods, which is often the core in dedicated courses on research methods. Our objective is to support students in developing a suitable and feasible research design in a multidisciplinary research context. This research design is the basis for their master thesis project. In the course we teach students to discover a scientific knowledge gap on the basis of a literature review, to formulate the contribution they wish to make to fill (part of) this gap, to formulate a well focused main research question and related sub questions and to choose an appropriate set of research methods that logically leads towards reaching the research deliverable and research objective. In addition, the data requirements, risks, and data analysis method(s) are part of the overall research design. Finally, an informative abstract, research flow diagram, bibliography, and a time schedule with research activities need to be added to the research proposal. In this case history we present our experiences with the course in which so far approximately 900 students participated. Based on our experiences we are now developing a redesign for a blended learning format for the course. The latter offers a general part on research design and video material to address the wide variety of research approaches and related research methods to support the academic creativity of the master students to develop their own research design. Gamification will be used to encourage the students to engage in an interactive peer review process. Our vision is that this blended learning format can be adapted to any MSc programme that wishes to adopt a similar course to prepare their students for their master thesis project.@en

Every 2 to 7 years, Kenya experiences a reoccurrence of El-Niño rains leading to loss of life and massive damage to property. The 1997/98 El-Niño floods affected 1.5 million persons and led to an estimated USD 1.2 billion infrastructural damage, USD 236 million agricultural damage and USD 9 million on other losses (property, soil erosion, pollution). Recent rains in October 2015 to January 2016 left 112 Kenyans dead and over 100,000 internally displaced. The Kenyan Government predictions indicate that the number of affected persons will be approximately 1,500,000, before 2018. Despite the numerous exposures to floods, Kenyan communities' resilience to floods risks is weak. Traditional crisis management approaches have not been successful in enhancing citizen capacity in flood prevention and preparedness. In addition, the past flood forecasts have not played a key role, as early warning advisories. To address these complexities, we propose a location-based game so as to create a positive learning environment and increase territory awareness, collaboration and soft skills, which are necessary for flood preparedness. Moreover, through playing the game, we hope that social learning for joint action will be enhanced. The game is known as "MAFURIKO" which is a Swahili word for floods. Through MAFURIKO, the citizens may learn basic flood prevention and preparedness procedures, may begin to see their predicament differently and may also identify opportunities which remain untapped. In this paper, we outline a theoretical framework and preliminary MAFURIKO game design specifications for the Nzoia sub-basin of the Lake Victoria Basin, in Kenya. MAFURIKO is intended to enhance the capacity of Kenyan citizens on flood risk reduction, so that they can work with the Kenyan Government to prevent and prepare for future floods. Future work will entail completion, staging and application of the location based game.

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This paper proposes a scenario based, multi-stakeholder, adaptive pathway approach, with an application for city logistics policies in 2025. The context of our application is the problem of limited sustainability of current freight transport practices in cities towards the long term future. We develop a multi-stakeholder roadmapping approach for this problem, that can deal with contextual uncertainties, framed in scenarios of the future. With this approach, problems identified by stakeholders can be translated into effective policies. The different perspectives of stakeholders and the time sensitivity and interdependence of their actions are accounted for explicitly in this approach. The roadmap includes a graphical representation that can be used for communication and policy design purposes.@en

Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of the scenarios and projections for climate-induced risk reduction, in the Nile Basin. The Nile River is 6,695 kilometres long and covers a basin area of 3.18 million square kilometres (one-tenth of the African land mass). The basin is highly susceptible to climate-change induced disasters. According to the IPCC, there is high confidence that the Basin will suffer from severe shifts in biome distribution, compounded water stress, degradation of marine life and reduced crop productivity. There is also medium confidence that the Nile Basin will experience: severe decline in livestock, significant increase in vector and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, increased migration and sea level rise. The basin is already experiencing some of these key risks, on the other hand, their impact in the next 30 to 35 years is deeply uncertain. The findings of this paper are based on four scenarios, namely: Kazuri, Miskeen, Umoja and EjoHeza and data collected from two forums that were held in Jinja, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya. The forum participants were a multi-disciplinary team of national and international stakeholders. The paper concludes that coupling Nile Basin storylines with the IPCC 2100 projections, proved to be an effective tool in increasing the utility of the scenarios and projections, for purposes of disaster risk reduction. Future work will entail analysing the uptake of the scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperation.

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Nile Basin policy makers, at all levels, are constantly making quick decisions to address emergencies. The decisions are made in the context of a complex, uncertain, ever-changing and highly volatile basin. However, for these decisions to take into account future uncertainties, like climate-change induced disasters, policy makers need to enhance their capacity in strategic foresight. Strategic foresight helps them make more robust decisions that take into account deep uncertainties and thus buffer the basin from future natural disasters. The authors explore the contribution of serious gaming in enhancing the Nile Basin policy makers' capacity on strategic foresight. They present the findings from the application of a game-based, experimental study of a serious game known as WeShareIt. WeShareIt was played in Nairobi on 22 October 2015 by 11 participants from the Kenyan Ministry of Water and Irrigation and Moi University Centre for Public Sector Reforms. Data on the added value and contribution of the game to increased strategic foresight and disaster risk reduction were collected using pre-game, in-game and post-game questionnaires, together with a debriefing session and observations. The analysis shows that strategic foresight is an important element for effective disaster risk reduction. Observations in the game-based intervention provided evidence that the participants engaged in short term quick decision making and were not prepared for life-threatening natural disasters. The results of the experiment support the conclusion that serious gaming may be an effective and promising method for enhancing the capacity of policy makers on strategic foresight so as to prepare them for future climate induced natural disasters.

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