We discuss the various performance aspects of parallelizing our transient global-scale groundwater model at 30′′ resolution (30arcsec; °1/41km at the Equator) on large distributed memory parallel clusters. This model, referred to as GLOBGM, is the successor of our 5′ (5arcmin; °1/410km at the Equator) PCR-GLOBWB 2 (PCRaster Global Water Balance model) groundwater model, based on MODFLOW having two model layers. The current version of GLOBGM (v1.0) used in this study also has two model layers, is uncalibrated, and uses available 30′′ PCR-GLOBWB data. Increasing the model resolution from 5′ to 30′′ creates challenges, including increased runtime, memory usage, and data storage that exceed the capacity of a single computer. We show that our parallelization tackles these problems with relatively low parallel hardware requirements to meet the needs of users or modelers who do not have exclusive access to hundreds or thousands of nodes within a supercomputer. For our simulation, we use unstructured grids and a prototype version of MODFLOW 6 that we have parallelized using the message-passing interface. We construct independent unstructured grids with a total of 278 million active cells to cancel all redundant sea and land cells, while satisfying all necessary boundary conditions, and distribute them over three continental-scale groundwater models (168 million - Afro-Eurasia; 77 million - the Americas; 16 million - Australia) and one remaining model for the smaller islands (17 million). Each of the four groundwater models is partitioned into multiple non-overlapping submodels that are tightly coupled within the MODFLOW linear solver, where each submodel is uniquely assigned to one processor core, and associated submodel data are written in parallel during the pre-processing, using data tiles. For balancing the parallel workload in advance, we apply the widely used METIS graph partitioner in two ways: it is straightforwardly applied to all (lateral) model grid cells, and it is applied in an area-based manner to HydroBASINS catchments that are assigned to submodels for pre-sorting to a future coupling with surface water. We consider an experiment for simulating the years 1958-2015 with daily time steps and monthly input, including a 20-year spin-up, on the Dutch national supercomputer Snellius. Given that the serial simulation would require °1/44.5 months of runtime, we set a hypothetical target of a maximum of 16h of simulation runtime. We show that 12 nodes (32 cores per node; 384 cores in total) are sufficient to achieve this target, resulting in a speedup of 138 for the largest Afro-Eurasia model when using 7 nodes (224 cores) in parallel. A limited evaluation of the model output using the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) head observations for the contiguous United States was conducted. This showed that increasing the resolution from 5′ to 30′′ results in a significant improvement with GLOBGM for the steady-state simulation when compared to the 5′ PCR-GLOBWB groundwater model. However, results for the transient simulation are quite similar, and there is much room for improvement. Monthly and multi-year total terrestrial water storage anomalies derived from the GLOBGM and PCR-GLOBWB models, however, compared favorably with observations from the GRACE satellite. For the next versions of GLOBGM, further improvements require a more detailed (hydro)geological schematization and better information on the locations, depths, and pumping rates of abstraction wells.

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Global hydrological models have become a valuable tool for a range of global impact studies related to water resources. However, glacier parameterization is often simplistic or non-existent in global hydrological models. By contrast, global glacier models do represent complex glacier dynamics and glacier evolution, and as such, they hold the promise of better resolving glacier runoff estimates. In this study, we test the hypothesis that coupling a global glacier model with a global hydrological model leads to a more realistic glacier representation and, consequently, to improved runoff predictions in the global hydrological model. To this end, the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) is coupled with the PCRaster GLOBal Water Balance model, version 2.0 (PCR-GLOBWB 2), using the eWaterCycle platform. For the period 2001–2012, the coupled model is evaluated against the uncoupled PCR-GLOBWB 2 in 25 large-scale (>50 000 km2), glacierized basins. The coupled model produces higher runoff estimates across all basins and throughout the melt season. In summer, the runoff differences range from 0.07 % for weakly glacier-influenced basins to 252 % for strongly glacier-influenced basins. The difference can primarily be explained by PCR-GLOBWB 2 not accounting for glacier flow and glacier mass loss, thereby causing an underestimation of glacier runoff. The coupled model performs better in reproducing basin runoff observations mostly in strongly glacier-influenced basins, which is where the coupling has the most impact. This study underlines the importance of glacier representation in global hydrological models and demonstrates the potential of coupling a global hydrological model with a global glacier model for better glacier representation and runoff predictions in glacierized basins.@en

The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD). Efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large-scale farmers while harming small-scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the VMD, we assess both aggregate total output and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district-level farming profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the multisectoral dynamics between the human and biophysical systems which influence farming profitability. We develop a spatially explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation, sedimentation, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land-use change and farming profitability calculation. We find that inter-district inequality responds in a non-linear way to climatic and socio-economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. The patterns of who wins and who loses could change substantially when a different policy is implemented or if a slightly different uncertain future materializes. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade-offs based on agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation and prepare additional measures to aid the worse-off actors.

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The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. Consequently, the effect of the root zone parameterization on the runoff prediction of global hydrological or land surface models (hereafter, GHMs) can be quite large. Many studies have found that climate is the most important factor in explaining rooting depths of natural vegetation, and thus outweighs the importance of soil and vegetation type. Most GHMs, however, use only soil maps and look-up tables for root zone properties to parameterize the root zone. This is problematic, as the observations of the root zone may indirectly have some climate properties, but is still likely to contribute to errors as the data is scarce, often incomplete (i.e. not the entire vertical root profile), at the wrong scale (i.e. individual plant vs. ecosystem value vs. grid cell value), and it is uncertain which part of root zone is hydrologically active. Recent studies developed different optimization methods to a priori determine the root zone storage or rooting depth at the global scale. These studies also suggested that their values could potentially be directly exported to other GHMs. In this study we test which root zone storage and rooting depth would be optimal for the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We want to answer the following questions: • How much do the “best fit” root zone storages and rooting depths differ from each other with different model settings in PCR-GLOBWB? • Are calibrated root zone storage capacities and rooting depths for PCR-GLOBWB similar to root zone storage capacities and rooting depths obtained by other global studies? The optimal root zone parameters follow from taking the parameters that best reproduce the evaporative flux from a state-of-the-art ensemble of satellite remote sensing based gridded evaporation products. We find that the global spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage capacity are quite independent of other parameters in PCR-GLOBWB. These patterns are similar to the patterns found in recent global studies, but the absolute values are not. We believe that the future for GHMs lies in dynamically determining the root zone storage based on logical – climate based – optimization concepts that are tailor-made for each GHM independently. @en

We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates water use. Sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption, and return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step and interact directly with the simulated hydrology. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been fully rewritten in Python and PCRaster Python and has a modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, and development of model components. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been implemented at 5 arcmin resolution, but a version parameterized at 30 arcmin resolution is also available. Both versions are available as open-source codes on https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB-model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). PCR-GLOBWB 2 has its own routines for groundwater dynamics and surface water routing. These relatively simple routines can alternatively be replaced by dynamically coupling PCR-GLOBWB 2 to a global two-layer groundwater model and 1-D-2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe the main components of the model, compare results of the 30 and 5 arcmin versions, and evaluate their model performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that model performance of the 5 arcmin version is notably better than that of the 30 arcmin version. Furthermore, we compare simulated time series of total water storage (TWS) of the 5 arcmin model with those observed with GRACE, showing similar negative trends in areas of prevalent groundwater depletion. Also, we find that simulated total water withdrawal matches reasonably well with reported water withdrawal from AQUASTAT, while water withdrawal by source and sector provide mixed results.

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An accurate estimation of water resources dynamics is crucial for proper management of both agriculture and the local ecology, particularly in semi-arid regions. Imperfections in model physics, uncertainties in model land parameters and meteorological data, as well as the human impact on land changes often limit the accuracy of hydrological models in estimating water storages. To mitigate this problem, this study investigated the assimilation of terrestrial water storage variation (TWSV) estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The region considered was the Hexi Corridor in northern China. The hydrological model used for the analysis was PCR-GLOBWB, driven by satellite-based forcing data from April 2002 to December 2010. The impact of the GRACE data assimilation (DA) scheme was evaluated in terms of the TWSV, as well as the variation of individual hydrological storage estimates. The capability of GRACE DA to adjust the storage level was apparent not only for the entire TWSV but also for the groundwater component. In this study, spatially correlated errors in GRACE data were taken into account, utilizing the full error variance-covariance matrices provided as a part of the GRACE data product. The benefits of this approach were demonstrated by comparing the EnKF results obtained with and without taking into account error correlations. The results were validated against in situ groundwater data from five well sites. On average, the experiments showed that GRACE DA improved the accuracy of groundwater storage estimates by as much as 25 %. The inclusion of error correlations provided an equal or greater improvement in the estimates. In contrast, a validation against in situ streamflow data from two river gauges showed no significant benefits of GRACE DA. This is likely due to the limited spatial and temporal resolution of GRACE observations. Finally, results of the GRACE DA study were used to assess the status of water resources over the Hexi Corridor over the considered 9-year time interval. Areally averaged values revealed that TWS, soil moisture, and groundwater storages over the region decreased with an average rate of approximately 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 cm yr^-1 in terms of equivalent water heights, respectively. A particularly rapid decline in TWS (approximately -0.4 cm yr^-1) was seen over the Shiyang River basin located in the southeastern part of Hexi Corridor. The reduction mostly occurred in the groundwater layer. An investigation of the relationship between water resources and agricultural activities suggested that groundwater consumption required to maintain crop yield in the growing season for this specific basin was likely the cause of the groundwater depletion.

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Water related catastrophes such as floods are putting more and more people at risk. Moreover this has a large economic impact as well. For example, in 2011 a flood in Bangkok wiped out a large number of harddrive manufacturing plants, leading to a global shortage and increase in price for a two year period. We have a decent grasp on forecasting the weather, especially on the short to medium term (a few days to a week). We have no such grasp for flood forecasting, especially not on the global scale.

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I made an oops once. When working on our global model hydrological model eWaterCycle I accidentally aggregated the files that contained information on rainfall per day into totals of rainfall per year. Our system didn’t budge and calculated the hydrological response as if a year’s worth of rain had fallen on January first. Oops. For this “what if” research we will revisit my mistake in a more controlled way and do the calculation properly. We study (and visualize on what-if.ewatercycle.org) what would happen if every place on earth would receive a year’s worth of rain on a single day, every year, on the same day. What if every place on earth suddenly had a 1-day rainy season and a 355-day dry season?@en

In this study, satellite observations including gravity (GRACE), terrestrial reflectance (MODIS), and global precipitation (TRMM) data, along with the output from the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model, are used to generate monthly and sub-monthly terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates and quantify flood events over the Tonlé Sap basin between 2002 and 2014. This study is the first time GRACE data have been used to investigate the hydrological processes over the Tonlé Sap basin. To improve the accuracy of the TWS estimates from GRACE, a signal restoration method was applied in an effort to recover the signal loss (i.e., signal leakage) inherent in the standard GRACE post-processing scheme. The method applies the correction based on the GRACE observations only, requiring no external data or hydrological models. The effectiveness of the technique over the Tonlé Sap basin was validated against several independent data sets. Based on the GRACE observations since 2002, the 2011 and 2013 flood events were clearly identified, and measured to have basin-averaged TWS values of 42 cm (40% higher than the long-term mean peak value) and 36 cm (34% higher) equivalent water height, respectively. Those same years also coincide with the largest observed flood extents, estimated from the MODIS data as 6561 km² (91% above the long-term mean peak value) and 5710 km² (66% above), respectively. Those flood events are also linked to the observed inter-annual variations of water storage between 2010 and 2014. It was shown that those inter-annual variations mainly reflect the variations in the surface water and groundwater storage components, influenced by the change of the precipitation intensity. In addition, this study presents a new approach for deriving monthly and sub-monthly TWS variations over a regularly inundated area by using MODIS reflectance data in addition to GRACE solutions. The results of this study show that GRACE data can be considered as an effective tool for monitoring certain small-scale (82,000 km²) hydrological basins.

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