Net-zero energy system configurations can be met in numerous ways, implying diverse economic effects. However, what is usually ignored in techno-economic and economy-wide analysis are the distinct social-political drivers and barriers, which might constrain certain elements of future energy systems. We thus apply a model ensemble that defines social-political storylines which constrain feasible net-zero configurations of the European energy system. Using these configurations in a macroeconomic general equilibrium model allows us to explore economy-wide effects and ultimately the cost-effectiveness of different systems. We find that social-political storylines provide valuable boundary conditions for feasible net-zero designs of the energy system and that the costliest energy sector configuration in fact leads to the highest European-wide welfare levels. This result originates in indirect effects, particularly positive employment effects, covered by the macroeconomic model. However, adverse public budget effects on the transition to net-zero energy may limit the willingness of policymakers who focus on shorter time-horizons to foster such a development. Our results highlight the relevance of considering the interaction of energy system-changes with labor, emission allowance and capital markets, as well as considering long-term perspectives.

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A notable inclusion in the most recent mitigation assessment from the IPCC was the need for a broader societal transformation to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in a fair and equitable manner. Energy system models are becoming increasingly important in politics when it comes to informing the energy transition towards climate neutrality. Even though these tools have become very powerful, their ability to map real-world behavioural, social and political developments is limited. This can lead to neglecting important aspects of fairness and inclusion as well as behavioural change measures in politics and policies, making it (almost) impossible to keep up with the goal of leaving no one and no region behind in the transition. In this talk, we argue that it is time to rethink energy system models through the lenses of a just transition. An integrated and complementary energy modelling and social science and humanities research approach is crucial to enable fair and equitable climate neutrality pathways. Political decisions would benefit from insights not only based on modelled techno-economic pathways and scenarios of the energy transition, but also on the findings of discussions and debates with the many stakeholders involved or impacted. This is particularly important as cost optimisation ignores existing injustices, there will be geographically dispersed winners and losers in the energy transition, and the transition process can offer different socio-economic benefits for broader regional transitions. In this talk, we will discuss limitation of current modelling approaches and provide policy recommendations to broaden the evidence base to include inter- and transdisciplinary research as well as the learnings from implementation projects. The policy recommendations are based on findings and experiences from stakeholder engagement in modelling from different European research projects, including SENTINEL, SONNET, SEEDS and JustWind4All.@en

Energy models are used to explore decarbonisation pathways and potential future energy systems. In this editorial, we comment on the importance of energy system modelling and open tools to inform policymaking in the context of the European Green Deal. We also summarise the seven contributions to the special collection on Energy Systems Modelling, among which are papers that have been presented at the Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E) 2021 conference. The presented research advances current modelling approaches and supports energy modelling with open tools and datasets.

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