Most gasoline currently consumed in Mexico continues to be oxygenated with Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE) despite its proven effects on the environment and human health. Hence, the existence of a regulatory framework on biofuels and various institutional efforts have not been sufficient to develop a national market for anhydrous ethanol use as biofuel. The goal of this research is twofold: one, to review and analyze the governmental actions taken to incorporate bioethanol as a gasoline oxygenate, and, two, to design a tool to estimate the bioethanol price at the Storage and Distribution Terminals of PEMEX (Mexico’s state-owned oil company). A price estimation model for bioethanol was developed through the microeconomic theory of the producer and the indifference price of a product methodology, which calculates the daily price of ethanol in the period 2015–2022; additionally, an MS Excel-based support tool was created for this analysis (namely: the Price-CEM). The analysis showed that incorporating bioethanol into the Mexican energy matrix would require policies of fiscal support for R&D, agricultural waste management and bioethanol production, as well as a new regulatory framework to both gradually eliminate MTBE and establish bioethanol/gasoline blending targets. Furthermore, institutional efforts would also be required to integrate all links in the biofuel production chain, including primary feedstock producers. The cost estimation method and tool have also shown to be valuable instruments to calculate both the prices at which a local bioethanol market would be competitive (with respect to the international market) and the most important cost contributions for local supply chains. This is the first tool to estimate the price of anhydrous ethanol at the local level, which can contribute to identifying opportunities and economic thresholds for the successful development of feasible bioethanol markets in Mexico.

There is global pressure to make advanced biofuels profitable. For cellulosic ethanol, three aspects remain as bottlenecks: collection of feedstocks, pretreatment methods, and enzyme production. In this paper, the first aspect is investigated, by addressing the main challenges for the logistics of agricultural residues. A logistic supply chain of corn stover collection and utilization for cellulosic ethanol production in Mexico is proposed, and a cost structure is designed for its estimation. By applying a value chain methodology, seven links and a set of three minimum selling prices (MSPs) of agricultural residues were determined. Furthermore, the harvest index (HI), crop residue index (CRI), nutrient substitution by extraction of agricultural residues, and harvest costs of corn stover were also calculated for a case study. The main results were a HI of 0.45, a CRI of 1.21, and nutrient substitution potential of 7 kg N, 2.2 kg P ₂O ₅, and 12.2 kg K ₂O per ton of corn stover. The set of the three estimated MSPs for corn stover was: $28.49 USD/ton (for delivery to the biorefinery’s gate), $31.15 USD/ton (for delivery and storage), and $48.14 USD/ton (for delivery, storage, and nutrient replenishment). Given the impact of the feedstock cost on the profitability of cellulosic ethanol, knowing details of the logistical information and its costs is critical to advancing the field of biofuels in Mexico. We also found that only 20% of farmers currently sell their residues; however, 65% of farmers would be willing to do so, a significant percentage for cellulosic ethanol production.