People living behind coastal dunes depend on the strength and resilience of dunes for their safety. Forecasts of hydrodynamic conditions and morphological change on a timescale of several days can provide essential information to protect lives and property. In order for forecasts to protect they need be relevant, accurate, provide lead time, and information on confidence. Here we show how confident one can be in morphological predictions of several days ahead. The question is answered by assessing the forecast skill as a function of lead time. The study site in the town of Egmond, the Netherlands, where people depend on the dunes for their safety, is used because it is such a rich data source, with a history of forecasts, tide gauges and bathymetry measurements collected by video cameras. Even though the forecasts are on a local scale, the methods are generally applicable. It is shown that the intertidal beach volume change can be predicted up to three days ahead.

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Vegetated foreshores in front of existing dikes can contribute to the overall reduction of wave loads on the dike. In order to test this concept in large shallow lakes a field pilot was constructed along the Houtribdijk in Lake Markermeer (the Netherlands) in 2014 to gain experience with construction, stability, maintenance and governance aspects. A large scale monitoring programme was set up to follow the hydrodynamic forcing, morphological changes and vegetation development on the pilot. The pilot is located on an exposed south-westerly direction, and experiences substantial wave impact. As a result the desired vegetation on the land-water interface has not been able to establish, but a rather dynamic sandy beach is currently the main feature along the waterline of the site. Higher up the slope planted reeds, and a mixture of willows has well established itself in the first growing season. The exposed position of the location makes that hardly any natural pioneer vegetation has settled, only in small sheltered areas some annuals were able to germinate and maintain themselves.@en

Aquatic vegetation in the coastal zone attenuates wave energy and reduces the risk of coastal hazards, e.g., flooding. Besides the attenuation of sea-swell waves, vegetation may also affect infragravity-band (IG) waves and wave setup. To date, knowledge on the effect of vegetation on IG waves and wave setup is lacking, while they are potentially important parameters for coastal risk assessment. In this study, the storm impact model XBeach is extended with formulations for attenuation of sea-swell and IG waves, and wave setup effects in two modes: the sea-swell wave phase-resolving (nonhydrostatic) and the phase-averaged (surfbeat) mode. In surfbeat mode, a wave shape model is implemented to capture the effect of nonlinear wave-vegetation interaction processes on wave setup. Both modeling modes are verified using data from two flume experiments with mimic vegetation and show good skill in computing the sea-swell and IG wave transformation, and wave setup. In surfbeat mode, the wave setup prediction greatly improves when using the wave shape model, while in nonhydrostatic mode (nonlinear) intrawave effects are directly accounted for. Subsequently, the model is used for a range of coastal geomorphological configurations by varying bed slope and vegetation extent. The results indicate that the effect of wave-vegetation interaction on wave setup may be relevant for a range of typical coastal geomorphological configurations (e.g., relatively steep to gentle slope coasts fronted by vegetation). @en