The Eastern Nile (EN) riparian countries Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are currently developing several reservoir projects to contribute to the needs for energy and food production in the region. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered one of the international river systems with potential conflicts between riparian countries. Yet, the Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries.@en

The Eastern Nile Basin is facing a number of transboundary issues, including water resources development, and the associated impacts. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems of potential conflicts between riparian countries. The Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries, with limited or no contribution to the runoff itself. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal scenarios for water resources management in the Eastern Nile with regard to hydropower generation and irrigation development. A hydro-economic optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm has been used to determine the maximum benefits for two scenarios: (i) non-cooperative management of hydraulic infrastructure by the riparian countries (status quo), and (ii) cooperative water resources management among the riparian countries. The hydro-economic model is developed using a Genetic Algorithm and deterministic optimization approach covering all hydraulic infrastructures in the Eastern Nile, existing and planned, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The results show that cooperative management yields an increase in hydro-energy returns for all countries compared to the status quo, with a very high increase in Ethiopian's returns, as expected. Non-cooperative system management would negatively impact the hydro-energy of Egypt compared to the cooperative management (reduced by 11%), without a significant increase of hydro-energy for Ethiopia. For Sudan, the results show that hydropower generation benefits from the presence of GERD, in both management scenarios. Non-cooperative management of the system, along with the internal trade-off between irrigation and hydropower facilities, would negatively impact irrigation supply in Sudan. The findings support the argument of positive impact of GERD development on the three Eastern Nile riparian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, provided that the three countries agree to manage the system cooperatively.

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The Eastern Nile riparian countries are currently developing several reservoir projects to contribute to the needs for energy and food production in the region. In the absence of formal mechanisms for collaboration, the transboundary nature of the Eastern Nile basin makes water resources development challenging. The large seasonal and interannual variability of the river flow increases those challenges. This paper assesses the implications of water resources development in the Eastern Nile basin on water availability for hydropower generation and irrigation demands at country and regional levels, using simulation and scenario analysis methods. Twelve scenarios are used to test developments of several dams and irrigation demands, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) operation options, and unilateral (status quo) versus integrated transboundary management of dams. A RIBASIM model that included 20 dams and 21 irrigation schemes was built, using a complete data set of 103 years at a monthly time step. Four indicators have been used for evaluating the performance of the system: hydroenergy generation (MWh=year), reliability of irrigation supply (%), reservoir net evaporation (10⁶ m³/year), and flow regimes of rivers (m³/s). The results show that in case of managing the system in an integrated transboundary manner and without new irrigation development projects, GERD would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia by + 1,500% and in Sudan by + 17%, with a slight reduction in Egypt of -1%. Supply reliability of existing and planned irrigation schemes in Sudan would not be practically influenced by the GERD, but the reliability will be reduced by about 8% when upstream development and new irrigation expansion materialize. Full development of the Eastern Nile basin would reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Egypt to 92% compared to the base scenario (100%). Compared to integrated management, unilateral management would increase the hydroenergy generation in Ethiopia (+16%), increase the rate of evaporation losses in the basin (+15%), and reduce the irrigation supply reliability in Sudan after full development of dams and irrigation projects (-10%). Water resources development would have considerable but varying effects on the countries.

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Increasing water demand coupled with limited water resources has given rise to the need for sustainable water resources development in the Nile River Basin. Managing the basin’s water resources is complex because of its transboundary nature, exacerbated by environmental degradation and strong climate variability. The Nile basin water resources have been extensively studied during the last 125 years for planning and management purposes, in particular with regard to the use of blue water in the downstream part of the basin, though recently some studies have also focused on the upper parts. These studies show that there is no convergence of development plans emerging among the Nile riparian countries. This paper reviews river basin water resource models as applied in the Nile River Basin, distinguishing between simulation, optimization and combined simulation and optimization models. The paper concludes by identifying knowledge gaps to guide future research on water resources planning and management in the Nile.

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