This paper presents a novel framework for customised modular bus systems that leverages travel demand prediction and modular autonomous vehicles to optimise services proactively. The proposed framework addresses two prediction scenarios with different forward-looking operations: optimistic operation and pessimistic operation. A mixed integer programming model in a space-time-state network is developed for the optimistic operation to determine module routes, schedules, formations and passenger-to-module assignments. For the pessimistic case, a two-stage optimisation procedure is introduced. The first stage involves two formulations (i.e., deterministic and robust) to generate cost-saving plans, and the second stage adapts plans with control strategies periodically. A Lagrangian heuristic approach is proposed to solve formulations efficiently. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated using smartcard data from Beijing and two state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Results indicate that the proposed framework outperforms the real-time approach in operating costs and highlights the role of module capacity and time dependency.

@en

The integration of autonomous vehicles and on-demand customized bus systems is expected to be beneficial for responding to real-time demands. This paper investigates the autonomous customized bus (ACB) system that leverages passenger demand prediction to enhance service quality and vehicle utilization. A novel ACB service design optimization model that determines vehicle movements and passenger-to-vehicle assignments is developed for the real-time routing and scheduling problem. Then, a rolling horizon approach, incorporating travel demand prediction, proactive dispatching and reactive adjustment, is proposed to address the studied problem. The performance of the introduced ACB system is evaluated using smartcard data from Beijing and the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithm. Results show that the proposed ACB system can effectively improve system performance and service level in terms of operating cost and passenger waiting time compared to reactive operations.

@en

To relieve severe traffic congestion and the over- saturation of rail transit system, this study integrates the service and demand from the perspective of system optimization, and considers the continuous arrival characteristics of passenger flow in the analysis. A collaborative optimization method is developed for the train operation schedule and passenger flow control at stations using the skip-stop pattern strategy. By introducing the train schedule and passenger flow control decision variables, a bi-objective integer nonlinear collaborative optimization model is formulated to improve the train operation efficiency and to reduce the number of delayed passengers. Then, the nonlinear constraints are linearized by time reconstruction and big-M method with 0-1 variables to solve the proposed model. The model is reconstructed into an integer linear programming model, which can be easily solved by the CPLEX solver. The numerical examples are executed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that compared to the single objective optimization method and only with the train service time，the proposed model significantly reduces the number of delayed passengers. Compared to only considering number of delayed passengers, the train running time is reduced by 2% to 3%.@en