We quantify the contributions of emissions from the transport sector to tropospheric ozone and the hydroxyl radical (OH) by means of model simulations with a global chemistry-climate model equipped with a source attribution method. For the first time we applied a method which also allows for quantifying contributions to OH which is invariant upon disaggregation or recombination and additive. Based on these quantified contributions, we analyse the ozone radiative forcing (RF) and methane lifetime reductions attributable to emissions from the transport sectors. The contributions were analysed for each transport sector separately and for 2015 as well as for 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0. In line with previous publications using the source attribution approach, we quantify ozone RF attributable to emissions from land transport, shipping, and aviation for the year 2015 of 121, 60, and 31 mW m−2, respectively. At the same time, we diagnose a relative reduction in methane lifetime due to transport emissions of 14.3 % (land transport), 8.5 % (shipping), and 3.8 % (aviation). These reductions are significantly larger than reported by previous studies due to the application of the source attribution method. Compared to 2015, only SSP1-1.9 shows a strong decrease in ozone RF and methane lifetime reduction attributable to the entire transport sector in 2050. For the projections of SSP2-4.5, we find similar effects of the total transport sector as for 2015, while the effects in SSP3-7.0 increase compared to 2015. This small change in the effects for the two projections compared to 2015 is caused by two main factors. Firstly, aviation emissions are projected to increase in SSP2-4.5 (increase of 107 %) and SSP3-7.0 (+86 %) compared to 2015, resulting in projected ozone RF of 55 mW m−2 (+78 %) and 50 mW m−2 (+61 %) for the year 2050 from aviation emissions. Secondly, the non-linear effects of atmospheric chemistry in polluted regions such as Europe and North America lead to rather small reductions in ozone and OH in response to emission reductions, especially from land transport emissions. In addition, the increase in emissions from land transport in other parts of the world, particularly in South Asia, leads to an increased contribution of ozone and OH. In particular, ozone formed by land transport emissions from South Asia causes strong RF that partially offsets the reductions in Europe and North America. Moreover, our results show that besides the non-linear response, lack of international cooperation, as in the SSP3-7.0 projection, hinders mitigation of ground-level ozone.@en

The non-CO₂ climate impact of aviation strongly relies on the atmospheric conditions at the time and location of emissions. Therefore, it is possible to mitigate their associated climate impact by planning trajectories to re-route airspace areas with significant climate effects. Identifying such climate-sensitive regions requires specific weather variables. Inevitably uncertain weather forecasts can lead to inefficient aircraft trajectories if not accounted for within flight planning. The current study addresses the problem of generating robust climate-friendly flight plans under meteorological uncertainty characterized using the ensemble prediction system. We introduce a framework based on the concept of robust tracking optimal control theory to formulate and solve the proposed flight planning problem. Meteorological uncertainty effects on aircraft performance variables are captured using the formulated ensemble aircraft dynamical model and controlled by penalizing the performance index variance. Case studies show that the proposed approach can generate climate-optimized trajectories with minimal sensitivity to weather uncertainty.

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The optimization of aircraft trajectories involves balancing operating costs and climate impact, which are often conflicting objectives. To achieve compromised optimal solutions, higher-level information such as preferences of decision-makers must be taken into account. This paper introduces the SolFinder 1.0 module, a decision-making tool designed to identify eco-efficient aircraft trajectories, which allow for the reduction of the flight's climate impact with limited cost penalties compared to cost-optimal solutions. SolFinder 1.0 offers flexible decision-making options that allow users to select trade-offs between different objective functions, including fuel use, flight time, NOx emissions, contrail distance, and climate impact. The module is included in the AirTraf 3.0 submodel, which optimizes trajectories under atmospheric conditions simulated by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. This paper focuses on the ability of the module to identify eco-efficient trajectories while solving a bi-objective optimization problem that minimizes climate impact and operating costs. SolFinder 1.0 enables users to explore trajectory properties at varying locations of the Pareto fronts without prior knowledge of the problem results and to identify solutions that limit the cost of reducing the climate impact of a single flight.@en

We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between the data products of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Emissions in the CMIP6 data occur at higher latitudes than in the CMIP5 data for all scenarios, years, and emitted species. A comparative simulation with the chemistry-climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) reveals that the difference in nitrogen oxide emission distribution leads to reduced overall ozone changes due to aviation in the CMIP6 scenarios because in those scenarios the distribution of emissions is partly shifted towards the chemically less active higher latitudes. The radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6% higher, and the decrease in methane lifetime is 5.7% larger for the year 2015 when using the CMIP5 latitudinal distribution of emissions compared to when using the CMIP6 distribution. We do not find a statistically significant difference in the radiative forcing associated with aviation aerosol emissions. In total, future studies investigating the effects of aviation emissions on ozone and climate should consider the inconsistency reported here.

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The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) provides an interface to couple submodels to a base model via a modular flexible data management facility. This paper presents the newly developed MESSy submodel, ACCF version 1.0 (ACCF 1.0), based on algorithmic Climate Change Functions version 1.0 (aCCFs 1.0), which describes the climate impact of aviation emissions. The ACCF 1.0 is coupled via the second version of the standard MESSy infrastructure. ACCF 1.0 takes the simulated atmospheric conditions at the location of emission as input to calculate the climate impact (in terms of average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20)) of aviation emissions, including CO2 and non-CO2 impacts, such as from NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail-cirrus. The online calculated ATR20 value per emitted mass fuel burn or flown-kilometer using ACCF 1.0 in the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model is presented. We perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by the ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced O3 effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effect is considered.@en

Aviation significantly contributes to anthropogenic radiative forcing with both CO (Formula presented.) and non-CO (Formula presented.) emissions. In contrast to technical advancements to mitigate the climate impact, operational measures can benefit from short implementation times and thus are expected to be of high relevance in the near future. This study evaluates the climate mitigation potential of nine operational improvements, covering both in-flight and ground operations. For this purpose, an innovative approach is presented to compare the results of measure-specific case studies, despite the wide differences in the underlying modeling assumptions and boundary conditions. To this end, a selection of KPIs is identified to estimate the impact of the studied operational improvements on both climate and the stakeholders of the air transport system. This article presents a comparative method to scale the results of the individual studies to a comparable reference, considering differences in traffic sample size as well as CO (Formula presented.) and non-CO (Formula presented.) climate effects. A quantitative comparison is performed for operational improvements belonging to the same category, i.e., trajectory-related, network-related, and ground-related measures, and a qualitative comparison is carried out among all considered operational improvements. Results show that the in-flight operational improvements are more effective in mitigating the impact on climate with respect to ground operations. However, the latter generally have a weaker impact on the aviation industry and a higher maturity level. Further research could expand this study by assessing the effects of implementation enablers, such as actions at the regulatory level, to facilitate the acceptance of the studied measures in the aviation industry.

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Aviation aims to reduce its climate effect by adopting trajectories that avoid regions of the atmosphere where aviation emissions have a large impact. To that end, prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) can be used, which provide spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate effect in terms of future near-surface temperature change. These aCCFs can be calculated with meteorological input data obtained from, e.g., numerical weather prediction models. We present here the open-source Python library called CLIMaCCF, an easy-to-use and flexible tool which efficiently calculates both the individual aCCFs (i.e., aCCF of water vapor, nitrogen oxide (NOx)-induced ozone production and methane depletion, and contrail cirrus) and the merged non-CO2 aCCFs that combine all these individual contributions. To construct merged aCCFs all individual aCCFs are converted to the same physical unit. This unit conversion needs the technical specification of aircraft and engine parameters, i.e., NOx emission indices and flown distance per kilogram of burned fuel. These aircraft- and engine-specific values are provided within CLIMaCCF version V1.0 for a set of aggregated aircraft and engine classes (i.e., regional, single-aisle, wide-body). Moreover, CLIMaCCF allows the user to choose from a range of physical climate metrics (i.e., average temperature response for pulse or future scenario emissions over the time horizons of 20, 50, or 100 years). Finally, we demonstrate the abilities of CLIMaCCF through a series of example applications.@en

One possibility to reduce the climate impact of aviation is the avoidance of climate-sensitive regions, which is synonymous with climate-optimised flight planning. Those regions can be identified by algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) for nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapour (H2O) as well as contrail cirrus, which provide a measure of climate effects associated with corresponding emissions. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of reducing the aviation-induced climate impact via ozone (O3) formation (resulting from NOx emissions), when solely using O3 aCCFs for the aircraft trajectory optimisation strategy. The effectiveness of such a strategy and the associated potential mitigation of climate effects is explored by using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) with various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by a large spatial variability of the O3 aCCFs, are selected. A one-day air traffic simulation is performed in the European airspace on those selected days to obtain both cost-optimised and climate-optimised aircraft trajectories, which more specifically minimised a NOx-induced climate effect of O3 (O3 aCCFs). The air traffic is laterally and vertically re-routed separately to enable an evaluation of the influences of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O3 aCCFs. The resulting aviation NOx emissions are then released in an atmospheric chemistry–climate simulation to simulate the contribution of these NOx emissions to atmospheric O3 and the resulting O3 change. Within this study, we use O3-RF as a proxy for climate impact. The results confirm that the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O3-RF compared to the cost-optimised flights, although the aCCFs cannot reproduce all aspects of the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NOx. Overall, the climate impact is higher for the selected summer day than for the selected winter day. Lateral re-routing shows a greater potential to reduce climate impact compared to vertical re-routing for the chosen flight altitude. We find that while applying the O3 aCCFs in trajectory optimisation can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O3 impact from aviation NOx emissions, as seen for the summer day. Although the O3 aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in estimating the climate impact of a local NOx emission, it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the O3 aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in the Average Temperature Response (ATR) of O3 from aviation NOx emissions. A general improvement in the scientific understanding of non-CO2 aviation effects could make climate-optimised flight planning practically feasible@en

Aviation contributes to 3.5% of anthropogenic climate change in terms of Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) and 5% in terms of temperature change. Aviation climate impact is expected to increase rapidly due to the growth of air transport sector in most regions of the world and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to only have a temporary effect on this growth. While efforts have been made to curb CO2 emissions, non-CO2 effects that are at least equally significant according to recent research, require more attention. The EU Horizon 2020 project ClimOp considers a comprehensive approach to tackling the climate impact of aviation using novel operational measures. One such measure is climate-optimised flight planning, where small deviations can be made in aircraft trajectories to minimise their overall climate impact. Algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) are used to estimate the climate impact of local non-CO2 effects such as nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (via ozone (O3) formation and methane (CH4) depletion), aviation water vapour (H2O) and contrails using weather variables directly as inputs. By using these functions in an air traffic optimisation module, climate sensitive regions are detected and avoided leading to climate-optimised trajectories. Here, we focus specifically on evaluating the effectiveness of reducing the aviation NOx induced climate impact via O3 formation, using only O3 aCCFs for the optimisation strategy. This is achieved using the chemistry climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy) and various submodels. A summer and winter day, characterised by high spatial variability of O3 aCCFs are selected, following which, air traffic over the European airspace is optimised with respect to climate as well as operating cost. The air traffic is laterally and vertically optimised separately to enable an evaluation of the horizontal and vertical pattern of O3 aCCFs. It is shown that despite the significant impact of the synoptic situation on the transport of emitted NOx, the climate-optimised flights lead to lower O3 Radiative Forcing (RF) compared to the cost-optimised flights. The study finds that while O3 aCCFs can reduce the climate impact, there are certain discrepancies in the prediction of O3 impact from aviation NOx emissions, as seen for the selected summer day. Although the aCCFs concept is a rough simplification in predicting future pathways of emissions and subsequent climate impact, we could show that it enables a reasonable first estimate. Further research is required to better describe the aCCFs allowing an improved estimate in O3-RF reduction for optimisation approaches.@en

Climate impact of anthropogenic activities is more and more of public concern. But while CO₂ emissions are accounted in emissions trading and mitigation plans, emissions of non-CO₂ components contributing to climate change receive much less attention. One of the anthropogenic emission sectors, where non-CO₂ effects play an important part, is aviation. Hence, for a quantitative estimate of total aviation climate impact, assessments need to comprise both CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects (e.g., water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and contrails), instead of calculating and providing only CO₂ impacts. However, while a calculation of CO₂ effects relies directly on fuel consumption, for non-CO₂ effects detailed information on aircraft trajectory, engine emissions, and ambient atmospheric conditions are required. As often such comprehensive information is not available for all aircraft movements, a simplified calculation method is required to calculate non-CO₂ impacts. In our study, we introduce a simple calculation method which allows quantifying climate assessment relying on mission parameters, involving distance and geographic flight region. We present a systematic analysis of simulated climate impact from more than 1000 city pairs with an Airbus A330-200 aircraft depending on the flight distance and flight region to derive simplified but still realistic representation of the non-CO₂ climate effects. These new formulas much better represent the climate impact of non-CO2 effects compared to a constant CO₂ multiplier. The mean square error decrease from 1.18 for a constant factor down to 0.24 for distance dependent factors and can be reduced even further to 0.19 for a distance and latitude dependent factor.

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The strong growth rate of the aviation industry in recent years has created significant challenges in terms of environmental impact. Air traffic contributes to climate change through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other non-CO₂ effects, and the associated climate impact is expected to soar further. The mitigation of CO₂ contributions to the net climate impact can be achieved using novel propulsion, jet fuels, and continuous improvements of aircraft efficiency, whose solutions lack in immediacy. On the other hand, the climate impact associated with non-CO₂ emissions, being responsible for two-thirds of aviation radiative forcing, varies highly with geographic location, altitude, and time of the emission. Consequently, these effects can be reduced by planning proper climate-aware trajectories. To investigate these possibilities, this paper presents a survey on operational strategies proposed in the literature to mitigate aviation’s climate impact. These approaches are classified based on their methodology, climate metrics, reliability, and applicability. Drawing upon this analysis, future lines of research on this topic are delineated.

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Air traffic contributes to global warming through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including the impact of NOx emissions on atmospheric ozone and methane, formation of contrails, and changes in the amount of stratospheric water vapour. The climate impact of non-CO2 effects is highly dependent on the background atmospheric conditions at the time and location of emission. Therefore, there is the potential of mitigating the climate impact of aviation by optimizing the aircraft trajectories. In the present paper, we focus on the properties of alternative trajectories which have the potential to minimize the climate impact of NOx emissions, under a multitude of weather patterns. This study aims at enhancing the understanding of the relation between NOx-climate impacts and routing strategies, by employing the European Center Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model. To this end, we conduct 1-year simulations with the air traffic submodel AirTraf 2.0, coupled to the EMAC model. We optimize 85 European flights, considering the atmospheric conditions at the time and location of the flight, to calculate the expected climate impact from the emitted species through a set of prototype algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs). The mean flight altitudes of NOx-climate optimal trajectories showed seasonal and latitudinal dependencies. We found that the potential of reducing ozone effects from aviation NOx is subjected to a strong seasonal cycle, reaching a minimum in summer. @en

The aerodynamic formation flight, which is also known as aircraft wake-surfing for efficiency (AWSE), enables aircraft to harvest the energy inherent in another aircraft’s wake vortex. As the thrust of the trailing aircraft can be reduced during cruise flight, the resulting benefit can be traded for longer flight time, larger range, less fuel consumption, or cost savings accordingly. Furthermore, as the amount and location of the emissions caused by the formation are subject to change and saturation effects in the cumulated wake of the formation can occur, AWSE can favorably affect the climate impact of the corresponding flights. In order to quantify these effects, we present an interdisciplinary approach combining the fields of aerodynamics, aircraft operations and atmospheric physics. The approach comprises an integrated model chain to assess the climate impact for a given air traffic scenario based on flight plan data, aerodynamic interactions between the formation members, detailed trajectory calculations as well as on an adapted climate model accounting for the saturation effects resulting from the proximity of the emissions of the formation members. Based on this approach, we derived representative AWSE scenarios for the world’s major airports by analyzing and assessing flight plans. The resulting formations were recalculated by a trajectory calculation tool and emission inventories for the scenarios were created. Based on these inventories, we quantitatively estimated the climate impact using the average temperature response (ATR) as climate metric, calculated as an average global near surface temperature change over a time horizon of 50 years. It is shown, that AWSE as a new operational procedure has a significant mitigation potential on climate impact. For a global formation flight scenario, we estimated the average relative change of climate response to range between 22% and 24% while the relative fuel saving effects sum up to 5-6%.

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Climate-optimized routing is an operational measure to effectively reduce the climate impact of aviation with a slight increase in aircraft operating costs. This study examined variations in the flight characteristics among five aircraft routing strategies and discusses several characteristics of those routing strategies concerning typical weather conditions over the North Atlantic. The daily variability in the North Atlantic weather patterns was analyzed by using the European Center Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model in the specified dynamics mode from December 2008 to August 2018. All days of the ten complete winters and summers in the simulations were classified into five weather types for winter and into three types for summer. The obtained frequency for each of the weather types was in good agreement with the literature data; and then representative days for each weather type were selected. Moreover, a total of 103 North Atlantic flights of an Airbus A330 aircraft were simulated with five aircraft routing strategies for each representative day by using the EMAC model with the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf. For every weather type, climate-optimized routing shows the lowest climate impact, at which a trade-off exists between the operating costs and the climate impact. Cost-optimized routing lies between the time-and fuel-optimized routings and achieves the lowest operating costs by taking the best compromise between flight time and fuel use. The aircraft routing for contrail avoidance shows the second lowest climate impact; however, this routing causes extra operating costs. Our methodology could be extended to statistical analysis based on long-term simulations to clarify the relationship between the aircraft routing characteristics and weather conditions.

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Air traffic contributes to anthropogenic global warming by about 5% due to CO₂ emissions and non-CO₂ effects, which are primarily caused by the emission of NO_x and water vapor as well as the formation of contrails. Since-in the long term-the aviation industry is expected to maintain its trend to grow, mitigation measures are required to counteract its negative effects upon the environment. One of the promising operational mitigation measures that has been a subject of the EU project ATM4E is climate-optimized flight planning by considering algorithmic climate change functions that allow for the quantification of aviation-induced climate impact based on the emission’s location and time. Here, we describe the methodology developed for the use of algorithmic climate change functions in trajectory optimization and present the results of its application to the planning of about 13,000 intra-European flights on one specific day with strong contrail formation over Europe. The optimization problem is formulated as bi-objective continuous optimal control problem with climate impact and fuel burn being the two objectives. Results on an individual flight basis indicate that there are three major classes of different routes that are characterized by different shapes of the corresponding Pareto fronts representing the relationship between climate impact reduction and fuel burn increase. On average, for the investigated weather situation and traffic scenario, a climate impact reduction in the order of 50% can be achieved by accepting 0.75% of additional fuel burn. Higher mitigation gains would only be available at much higher fuel penalties, e.g., a climate impact reduction of 76% associated with a fuel penalty of 12.8%. However, these solutions represent much less efficient climate impact mitigation options.

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Emissions of aviation include CO2, H2O, NOx, sulfur oxides, and soot. Many studies have investigated the annual mean climate impact of aviation emissions. While CO2 has a long atmospheric residence time and is almost uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, non-CO2 gases and particles and their products have short atmospheric residence times and are heterogeneously distributed. The climate impact of non-CO2 aviation emissions is known to vary with different meteorological background situations. The aim of this study is to systematically investigate the influence of characteristic weather situations on aviation climate effects over the North Atlantic region, to identify the most sensitive areas, and to potentially detect systematic weather-related similarities. If aircraft were re-routed to avoid climate-sensitive regions, the overall aviation climate impact might be reduced. Hence, the sensitivity of the atmosphere to local emissions provides a basis for the assessment of weather-related, climate-optimized flight trajectory planning. To determine the climate change contribution of an individual emission as a function of location, time, and weather situation, the radiative impact of local emissions of NOx and H2O to changes in O3, CH4, H2O and contrail cirrus was computed by means of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. From this, 4-dimensional climate change functions (CCFs) were derived. Typical weather situations in the North Atlantic region were considered for winter and summer. Weather-related differences in O3, CH4, H2O, and contrail cirrus CCFs were investigated. The following characteristics were identified: enhanced climate impact of contrail cirrus was detected for emissions in areas with large-scale lifting, whereas low climate impact of contrail cirrus was found in the area of the jet stream. Northwards of 60° N, contrails usually cause climate warming in winter, independent of the weather situation. NOx emissions cause a high positive climate impact if released in the area of the jet stream or in high-pressure ridges, which induces a south- and downward transport of the emitted species, whereas NOx emissions at, or transported towards, high latitudes cause low or even negative climate impact. Independent of the weather situation, total NOx effects show a minimum at ∼250g hPa, increasing towards higher and lower altitudes, with generally higher positive impact in summer than in winter. H2O emissions induce a high climate impact when released in regions with lower tropopause height, whereas low climate impact occurs for emissions in areas with higher tropopause height. H2O CCFs generally increase with height and are larger in winter than in summer. The CCFs of all individual species can be combined, facilitating the assessment of total climate impact of aircraft trajectories considering CO2 and spatially and temporally varying non-CO2 effects. Furthermore, they allow for the optimization of aircraft trajectories with reduced overall climate impact. This also facilitates a fair evaluation of trade-offs between individual species. In most regions, NOx and contrail cirrus dominate the sensitivity to local aviation emissions. The findings of this study recommend considering weather-related differences for flight trajectory optimization in favour of reducing total climate impact.

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The recent COVID-19 pandemic with its countermeasures, e.g. lock-downs, resulted in decreases in emissions of various trace gases. Here we investigate the changes of ozone over Europe associated with these emission reductions using a coupled global/regional chemistry climate model. We conducted and analysed a business as usual and a sensitivity (COVID19) simulation. A source apportionment (tagging) technique allows us to make a sector-wise attribution of these changes, e.g. to natural and anthropogenic sectors such as land transport. Our simulation results show a decrease of ozone of 8% over Europe in May 2020 due to the emission reductions. The simulated reductions are in line with observed changes in ground-level ozone. The source apportionment results show that this decrease is mainly due to the decreased ozone precursors from anthropogenic origin. Further, our results show that the ozone reduction is much smaller than the reduction of the total NO x emissions (around 20%), mainly caused by an increased ozone production efficiency. This means that more ozone is produced for each emitted NO x molecule. Hence, more ozone is formed from natural emissions and the ozone productivities of the remaining anthropogenic emissions increase. Our results show that politically induced emissions reductions cannot be transferred directly to ozone reductions, which needs to be considered when designing mitigation strategies.

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Aviation is seeking for ways to reduce its climate impact caused by CO₂ emissions and non-CO₂ effects. Operational measures which change overall flight altitude have the potential to reduce climate impact of individual effects, comprising CO₂ but in particular non-CO₂ effects. We study the impact of changes of flight altitude, specifically aircraft flying 2000 feet higher and lower, with a set of global models comprising chemistry-transport, chemistry-climate and general circulation models integrating distinct aviation emission inventories representing such alternative flight altitudes, estimating changes in climate impact of aviation by quantifying radiative forcing and induced temperature change. We find in our sensitivity study that flying lower leads to a reduction of radiative forcing of non-CO₂ effects together with slightly increased CO₂ emissions and impacts, when cruise speed is not modified. Flying higher increases radiative forcing of non-CO₂ effects by about 10%, together with a slight decrease of CO₂ emissions and impacts. Overall, flying lower decreases aviation-induced temperature change by about 20%, as a decrease of non-CO₂ impacts by about 30% dominates over slightly increasing CO₂ impacts assuming a sustained emissions scenario. Those estimates are connected with a large but unquantified uncertainty. To improve the understanding of mechanisms controlling the aviation climate impact, we study the geographical distributions of aviation-induced modifications in the atmosphere, together with changes in global radiative forcing and suggest further efforts in order to reduce long standing uncertainties.

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Emissions of aviation include CO2, H2O, NOx and particles. While CO2 has a long atmospheric residence time and is uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, non-CO2 gases, particles and their products have short atmospheric residence times and are heterogeneously distributed. Their climate effects depend on chemical and meteorological background conditions during emission, which vary with geographic location, altitude, time, local insolation, actual weather, etc. This spatial and temporal variability can be utilized for aviation climate impact mitigation by identifying aircraft trajectories which avoid climate-sensitive regions. To determine the climate change contribution of individual emissions as function of 3-dimensional position, time and weather situation, contributions of local emissions to changes in O3, CH4, H2O and contrail-cirrus were computed by means of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model and four-dimensional climate change functions (CCFs) were derived thereof. Typical weather situations in the North Atlantic region were considered for winter and summer. For all non-CO2 species included in the study, we found distinct weather related differences with respect to their climate impact. Depending on the species, we found enhanced significance of the position of emission release in relation to high pressure systems, in relation to the jet stream, in relation to polar night and in relation to the tropopause altitude. The dominating parameters were found to be contrail-cirrus and total NOx. The results of this study represent a comprehensive basis for weather dependent flight trajectory optimization studies. Furthermore it constitutes the groundwork for the development of more generally applicable algorithmic CCFs. @en