Future emission reductions can be guided by a timely evaluation of the impact of emission reduction initiatives in the marine sector. To forecast carbon emission reductions and assess the consequences of various emission reduction techniques, we offer a generic framework for a ship carbon emission prediction model based on several emission reduction scenarios. Three factors—port and ship electrification (PSE), clean fuel substitution (CFS), and ship speed optimization (SSO)—are combined to create emission reduction scenarios with various intensities (lenient, intensive, and aggressive). In the case of Wuhan Port, the effect of carbon reduction was evaluated by comparing various measurements with the baseline scenario. The results indicate that the aggressive PSE and CFS scenarios will reach the carbon peak in 2029 and 2025, respectively. Finally, the possibility of reducing emissions offered by various solutions is examined, and recommendations for port ships' carbon footprint reduction are provided.@en

To simplify the micro-level CO2 (carbon dioxide) emission calculation model, reduce the dataset quality requirement of the model, and cut down the volume of calculation, a meso-level voyage-based emission model (MeVEM) for inland ships is proposed with their navigation characteristics considered. The navigation characteristics and the main influencing factors of inland ship emissions are analyzed. The main engine power and average speed of the ships are selected as the model inputs. Accurate CO2 emissions are calculated by the use of the micro-level emission model. With that, first-order and second-order polynomial regression models are employed to establish the fitting formula to estimate the emissions per kilometer. To validate the proposed model, the Junshan segment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is selected as the study area, and the model parameters are determined to estimate the CO2 emissions. It is found that the model of emission per kilometer (ej, k) established by second-order polynomial regression is more accurate. The results show that the percentage error in the total amount (PETA) of the results estimated by the four proposed models (CO2 emission estimation model for the upstream cargo ships, the downstream cargo ships, the upstream oil tankers, and the downstream oil tankers) are all within ±5%, which verifies the feasibility and applicability of the model. The proposed meso-level model allows us to use a smaller input dataset which is easier to obtain, and estimate CO2 emissions from ships simply and accurately.@en