Over the last decade, house prices have increased substantially in nearly all OECD countries. These house price increases frequently coincided with changes in mortgage credit conditions; i.e., decreases in the interest rate and increases in income. This is in line with existing literature, which finds an equilibrium relationship between mortgage credit and house prices. The literature, however, lacks an analysis of what drives the equilibrium, which we assess in this paper. Moreover, we propose a combination of two explanations discussed in the literature. That is, we argue that lower-income households are bound by credit constraints, while higher-income households have a preference for spending a fixed fraction of income on mortgage payments. We develop theoretical models for all three explanations and test the models using data on the Dutch property market. The empirical results clearly support the combined approach. Overall, the results suggest that it is important to differentiate between types of households when forecasting house prices or assessing the effectiveness of policy interventions.

Purpose: Commercial real estate (CRE) indicators typically include asset deals and exclude share deals. This study aims to explore the phenomenon of real estate share deals and assess whether omitting these transactions results in indicators that do not accurately reflect the market. Design/methodology/approach: Various registers in the Netherlands were used to estimate transaction volumes, total values and price developments of both share and asset deals. Share deals are company transfers and its transactions cover more than real estate. To estimate the contribution of real estate in share deals, valuations were used. Findings: In the Netherlands, share deals are most prominent for rental dwellings. Adding share deals to volume and value indicators seems required. In price development estimates, significant differences were found for dwellings between share and asset deals. Price indices should, therefore, also include share deals, but in practice this is difficult and has little impact on the outcomes due to the low weight of share deals. Research limitations/implications: Legislation has a major impact on choosing a share or asset deal. The significance of share deals is expected to vary amongst countries. Performing similar research in other countries will contribute in harmonising real estate indicators. Practical implications: Statistical agencies face many challenges in the construction of CRE indicators. This study provides statisticians knowledge that can be used to evaluate possible data gaps. Originality/value: This is the first study to estimate indicators of real estate share deals and compare these to asset deal indicators.

This paper uses individual house transaction data from 1995 to 2014 in Amsterdam to explore the risks and interrelationships of the subdistrict house prices. Simple indicators suggest that house prices grow faster and are more risky in the central business district and its immediate surrounding areas than in the peripherals. Furthermore, we observe an over time decreasing intervariations between the subdistrict house price growth rates, whereas we find a lead–lag and house price causal flow from the more central to the peripheral subdistricts.