Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999–2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014–2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models’ capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

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Understanding marine climate variability is important for coastal planning and marine operations. It is also particularly challenging for complicated settings (e.g., islands) and data-poor regions. The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between daily synoptic atmospheric patterns, and wave and storm surge conditions around New Zealand waters, based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The daily predictor we developed is able to represent sea and swell wave conditions as well as storm surge variability over different temporal scales. However, when climate variability is analysed on a longer temporal period, based on the 20th century reanalysis, large inhomogeneities are found. This highlights the dangers related to assessing climate variability, especially in data-poor regions (such as New Zealand), where inhomogeneities could be interpreted as actual changes.

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Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run-up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea-state parameters associated with the present-day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto-regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea-state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large-scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century.@en

Wave-induced flooding is a major coastal hazard on tropical islands fronted by coral reefs. The variability of shape, size, and physical characteristics of the reefs across the globe make it difficult to obtain a parameterization of wave run-up, which is needed for risk assessments. Therefore, we developed the HyCReWW metamodel to predict wave run-up under a wide range of reef morphometric and offshore forcing characteristics. Due to the complexity and high dimensionality of the problem, we assumed an idealized one-dimensional reef profile, characterized by seven primary parameters. XBeach Non-Hydrostatic was chosen to create the synthetic dataset, and Radial Basis Functions implemented in MATLAB® were chosen for interpolation. Results demonstrate the applicability of the metamodel to obtain fast and accurate results of wave run-up for a large range of intrinsic reef morphologic and extrinsic hydrodynamic forcing parameters, offering a useful tool for risk management and early warning systems. @en

The assessment of coastal flood risk on a reef-lined coastline presents several challenges. From the probabilistic side, we need to consider all possible events that could occur in the system, taking into account the different contributions of waves, storm surges, and tides that contribute to the total water level. To estimate reliable flood extents, we need to accurately model the complex wave processes that occur across the reef. To explore the multivariate nature of coastal flooding, we rely on a climate emulator that accounts for climate variability and simulates time series of all the variables involved. Due to the computational constraints to numerically simulate thousands of events, we explore the feasibility of using a recently developed tool, the HyCreWW (Hybrid Coral Reef Wave and Water level) meta-model to estimate wave run-up and flooding extents. Limitation of a 1D assessment are analyzed and results compared with 2D modeling.@en

This paper proposes a buoy independent directional calibration methodology that uses satellite altimeter data to correct the simultaneous wind-sea and all swell partitions available from wave hindcasts. The proposed technique was applied to a 20-year wave hindcast in the New Zealand region and showed promising results. The method could potentially be applied worldwide to fully assess systematic errors in wind-sea and swell partitions.

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Characterization of multimodal directional wave spectra is important for many offshore and coastal applications, such as marine forecasting, coastal hazard assessment, and design of offshore wave energy farms and coastal structures. However, the multivariate and multiscale nature of wave climate variability makes this complex problem tractable using computationally expensive numerical models. So far, the skill of statistical-downscaling model-based parametric (unimodal) wave conditions is limited in large ocean basins such as the Pacific. The recent availability of long-term directional spectral data from buoys and wave hindcast models allows for development of stochastic models that include multimodal sea-state parameters. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework based on weather types to predict multimodal wave spectra (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction from different storm systems, including sea and swells) from large-scale atmospheric pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using the categorical distribution for the sea-state type, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for wave height and wave period, a multivariate Gaussian copula for the interdependence between variables, and a Markov chain model for the chronology of daily weather types. We apply the model to the southern California coast, where local seas and swells from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres contribute to the multimodal wave spectrum. This work allows attribution of particular extreme multimodal wave events to specific atmospheric conditions, expanding knowledge of time-dependent, climate-driven offshore and coastal sea-state conditions that have a significant influence on local nearshore processes, coastal morphology, and flood hazards.

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Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

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Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g., Pacific Ocean). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, this study addresses these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in the statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into "wave families," defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

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