The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

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We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt.

Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1, with an interannual variability of 109ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ĝ1/4 ĝ€5.5ĝ€km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies.

The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

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The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass as the result of changes in the complex ice-climate interactions that have been driven by global climate change. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE, surface mass balance (SMB) output of RACMO 2.3, and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. Firstly, in agreement with previous estimates, we find that the rate of mass loss from Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt/yr in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum of individual contributions: surface mass balance (SMB, around 216 ± 122 Gt/yr) and ice discharge (520 ± 31 Gt/yr), indicating a good performance of the regional climate model. Secondly, we examine the average accelerations of mass anomalies in Greenland over 2003–2012, suggesting that the SMB (−23.3 ± 2.7 Gt/yr2) contributes 75 % to the total acceleration observed by GRACE. The remaining contributions to the mass loss acceleration for entire Greenland are statistically insignificant. Finally and most importantly, this study suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO 2.3 and SNOWPACK). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast (SE) and northwest (NW) parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few Gt) and does not explain the intra-annual differences between the total mass and SMB signals.@en

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago comprises multiple small glaciers and ice caps, mostly concentrated on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands in the northern (NCAA, Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) and southern parts (SCAA, Southern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) of the archipelago, respectively. Because
these glaciers are small and show complex geometries, current regional climate models, using 5- to 20-km horizontal resolution, do not properly resolve surface mass balance patterns. Here we present a 58-year (1958–2015) reconstruction of daily surface mass balance of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, statistically
downscaled to 1 km from the output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. By correcting for biases in elevation and ice albedo, the downscaling method significantly improves runoff estimates over narrow outlet glaciers and isolated ice fields. Since the last two decades, NCAA and SCAA glaciers
have experienced warmer conditions (+1.1 ∘ C) resulting in continued mass loss of 28.2±11.5 and 22.0±4.5 Gt/year, respectively, more than doubling (11.9 Gt/year) and doubling (11.9 Gt/year) the pre-1996 average. While the interior of NCAA ice caps can still buffer most of the additional melt, the lack
of a perennial firn area over low-lying SCAA glaciers has caused uninterrupted mass loss since the 1980s. In the absence of significant refreezing capacity, this indicates inevitable disappearance of these highly sensitive glaciers.
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Transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland spans the entire ice layer, down to the ice bed. As such, this process may have a large impact on Greenland ice dynamics and on the future ice sheet evolution. GrIS subglacial hydrology is an area of active research. Unfortunately, it is difficult to validate and calibrate existing subglacial hydrology models because of intrinsic data limitations. Data collected in situ or from aircraft have a very limited spatial or/and temporal coverage, whereas space-borne electromagnetic sensors (both passive and active) are capable of observing only the near-surface part of the ice layer. With our study, we present the first direct observations of transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland with satellite gravimetry. We estimate total mass anomalies using GRACE satellite mission data and subtract from them the contributions associated with the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and the Ice Discharge (ID). The SMB estimates are provided by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2.3 (RACMO 2.3). The signal related to ID is approximated by a linear function fitting the “Total minus SMB” residuals in spring and autumn months. An analysis of seasonal variations in ice flow at 55 outlet glaciers in northwest and southeast Greenland shows that the deviations of ID-related mass anomalies from a linear trend are negligible. By taking the average of seasonal mass variations in 2003–2013, we observe substantial meltwater accumulation in Greenland during summer, with a peak value of 80-120 Gt in July. At the regional scale, the largest accumulation is observed in the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland: up to about 40 Gt in each region. The extracted signal is not altered substantially when using an alternative snow and firn model called SNOWPACK, which partitions meltwater into refreezing and runoff differently, as compared to RACMO 2.3. Furthermore, the meltwater accumulation signal is present in all of the considered GRACE data product variants and processing schemes, though with somewhat different magnitude and timing. Our study shows that GRACE data are capable of sensing transient meltwater accumulation not only at the scale of entire GrIS, but also at the scale of individual drainage systems. A continuation of research efforts is envisioned in order to further improve the accuracy of the obtained estimates.@en