Rural–urban migration is an adaptive response to location-specific environmental or socio-economic stressors. Jiangsu Province, China is witnessing rapid economic growth fuelled by manufacturing and services sector. Rural–urban migration in Jiangsu, which brings higher stress to resource-carrying capacity of urban areas, is driven by rural “push” factors, principally labour surplus and unemployment in agriculture. This study investigates possible policy interventions aimed at relieving the rapid rural–urban migration in Jiangsu based on a sensitivity analysis of driving factors in rural agricultural production. It shows that rural–urban migration is sensitive to input elasticities of precipitation and labour. Two groups of scenario analysis corresponding to possible policy interventions are implemented. The first policy focuses on providing government subsidies to rural non-agricultural industries then compensate for the shrinking agricultural production. Another policy supports education in rural areas to provide more skilled labour resource which can be absorbed by non-agricultural industries. Both two policies are effective in reducing rural unemployment and alleviating rural–urban migration.

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A socio-hydrological model is used to forecast future conditions in a river basin arising from changes in climate and the economy in order to learn about macroeconomic conditions that would yield pathways for sustainable development and how they may be affected by changes in climate and the economy. The study uses a system dynamics model with endogenous social values and preferences and exogenous climate and economic drivers. Basin scale sustainability is defined as a function of economic growth, provision of environmental services and equality within the basin. The analysis reveals that a diversified basin economy is important to achieve sustainable development. Under current climate conditions, a higher level of diversification in the basin's economy increases sustainability. Higher current capital growth rates, e.g., >2% of the current rate, would also lead to more sustainable development of a kind that is less affected by the availability of water and robust to vagaries of climate change. The results suggest that policy-makers and resource managers should focus on measures to diversify the economy when it is thriving, but also consider the capacity of society to adapt to unpredictable shocks to the system.@en

Migration is often seen as an adaptive human response to adverse socio-environmental conditions, such as water scarcity. A rigorous assessment of the causes of migration, however, requires reliable information on the migration in question and related variables, such as, unemployment, which is often missing. This study explores the causes of one such type of migration, from rural to urban areas, in the Jiangsu province of China. A migration model is developed to fill a gap in the understanding of how rural to urban migration responds to variations in inputs to agricultural production including water availability and labor and how rural population forms expectations of better livelihood in urban areas. Rural to urban migration is estimated at provincial scale for period 1985–2013 and is found to be significantly linked with rural unemployment. Further, migration reacts to a change in rural unemployment after 2–4 years with 1% increase in rural unemployment, on average, leading to migration of 16,000 additional people. This implies that rural population takes a couple of years to internalize a shock in employment opportunities before migrating to cities. The analysis finds neither any evidence of migrants being pulled by better income prospects to urban areas nor being pushed out of rural areas by water scarcity. Corroborated by rural–urban migration in China migration survey data for 2008 and 2009, this means that local governments have 2–4 years of lead time after an unemployment shock, not necessarily linked to water scarcity, in rural areas to prepare for the migration wave in urban areas. This original analysis of migration over a 30-year period and finding its clear link with unemployment, and not with better income in urban areas or poor rainfall, thus provides conclusive evidence in support of policy interventions that focus on generating employment opportunities in rural areas to reduce migration flow to urban areas.@en

Sustainable water resources management relies on understanding how societies and water systems coevolve. Many place-based sociohydrology (SH) modeling studies use proxies, such as environmental degradation, to capture key elements of the social component of system dynamics. Parameters of assumed relationships between environmental degradation and the human response to it are usually obtained through calibration. Since these relationships are not yet underpinned by social-science theories, confidence in the predictive power of such place-based sociohydrologic models remains low. The generalizability of SH models therefore requires major advances in incorporating more realistic relationships, underpinned by appropriate hydrological and social-science data and theories. The latter is a critical input, since human culture - especially values and norms arising from it - influences behavior and the consequences of behaviors. This paper reviews a key social-science theory that links cultural factors to environmental decision-making, assesses how to better incorporate social-science insights to enhance SH models, and raises important questions to be addressed in moving forward. This is done in the context of recent progress in sociohydrological studies and the gaps that remain to be filled. The paper concludes with a discussion of challenges and opportunities in terms of generalization of SH models and the use of available data to allow future prediction and model transfer to ungauged basins.

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This study demonstrates a socio-hydrological model used to examine what future conditions could be like in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia, arising from change in climate and the economy. The model uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system with endogenous social values and preferences. The dynamical system is represented by a suite of differential equations that can evolve over time. The model exogenous drivers were economic and climatic-based. The model revealed possible future scenarios and the exogenous forcing conditions that led to sustainable basin development. The model revealed that a higher level of diversification in the basin’s economy increases its sustainability and how this is enhanced by the moderate growth of the national economy. This highlights the link between a diversified basin economy and sustainability and how policy-makers and resource managers should focus on measures that diversify a basin’s economy when the national economy is expanding when it is perhaps easiest to implement. @en

Water diversion for environmental purposes threatens many agricultural communities. This paper focuses on the water-agriculture-environment nexus in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia, and attempts to explain how reduced water allocation to agriculture aimed at protecting the environment in turn impacted the wider economy and the community. Predictably reduced water allocation saw declines in agriculture production and employment. Despite this, paradoxically, the basin unemployment rate declined and basin median household income increased. To understand and interpret this, we first analyze available labour, economic and hydrology data, and then develop a simple dynamic model to interpret the observed pattern of basin employment and unemployment. Data analysis revealed the likely causes behind the paradox as (a) out-migration of people from the basin, and (b) absorption of the labour force in the fast growing non-agricultural sectors of the diversified basin economy. The model simulations reinforced this interpretation. Further model simulations under alternative realities of out-migration and sectoral transformation indicated that basins embedded in faster growing national economies, and are more diversified to begin with, are likely to be more conducive to agriculture sector reform (e.g., reduced water allocation) and environmental regeneration. This is a sobering message for other regions experiencing environmental degradation due to extensive agricultural development.

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This study is focused on the water-agriculture-environment nexus as it played out in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, eastern Australia, and how coevolution of society and water management actually transpired. Over 100 years of agricultural development the Murrumbidgee Basin experienced a “pendulum swing” in terms of water allocation, initially exclusively for agriculture production changing over to reallocation back to the environment. In this paper, we hypothesize that in the competition for water between economic livelihood and environmental wellbeing, economic diversification was the key to swinging community sentiment in favor of environmental protection, and triggering policy action that resulted in more water allocation to the environment. To test this hypothesis, we developed a sociohydrology model to link the dynamics of the whole economy (both agriculture and industry composed of manufacturing and services) to the community's sensitivity toward the environment. Changing community sensitivity influenced how water was allocated and governed and how the agricultural sector grew relative to the industrial sector (composed of manufacturing and services sectors). In this way, we show that economic diversification played a key role in influencing the community's values and preferences with respect to the environment and economic growth. Without diversification, model simulations show that the community would not have been sufficiently sensitive and willing enough to act to restore the environment, highlighting the key role of sectoral transformation in achieving the goal of sustainable agricultural development.

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To better understand and mitigate the impacts of humans on the water cycle, the importance of studying the coevolution of coupled human-water systems has been recognized. Because of its unique system dynamics, the Murrumbidgee river basin (part of the larger Murray-Darlin basin, Australia) is one of the main study areas in the emerging field of socio-hydrology. In recent years, various historical and modeling studies have contributed to gaining a better understanding of this system’s behavior. Kandasamy et al. (2014) performed a historical study on the development of this human-water coupled system. They identified four eras, providing a historical context of the observed “pendulum” swing between first an exclusive focus on agricultural development, followed by increasing environmental awareness, subsequent efforts to mitigate, and finally to restore environmental health. A modeling effort by Van Emmerik et al. (2014) focused on reconstructing hydrological, economical, and societal dynamics and their feedbacks. A measure of changing societal values was included by introducing environmental awareness as an endogenously modeled variable, which resulted in capturing the co-evolution between economic development and environmental health. Later work by Elshafei et al. (2015) modeled and analyzed the two-way feedbacks of land use management and land degradation in two other Australian coupled systems. A composite variable, community sensitivity, was used to measure changing community sentiment, such that the model was capable of isolating the two-way feedbacks in the coupled system. As socio-hydrology adopts a holistic approach, it is often required to introduce (hydrologically) unconventional variables, such as environmental awareness or community sensitivity. It is the subject of ongoing debate how such variables can be validated, as there is no standardized data set available from hydrological or statistical agencies. Recent research (Wei et al. 2017) has provided one such avenue for validation, by using newspaper articles from the last 169 years to derive an index of economic development and environmental sustainability for the complete Murray-Darlin basin. Based on this alternative approach, the similar time periods as Kandasamy et al. (2014) were derived independently. Furthermore, their environmental sustainability index closely follows the parsimoniously modeled environmental awareness from Van Emmerik et al. (2014). Besides a direct validation of previous studies, this independent work provides credibility for the development and use of models such as those developed by Van Emmerik et al. (2014) and Elshafei et al. (2015). With this presentation, we aim to highlight how alternative sources of societal data can be used to independently validate and assess the realism of socio-hydrological models in spite of the fact that at least a significant part of the societal values has to remain endogenous, and only coupled socio-hydrological models of the Van Emmerik et al. (2014) and Elshafei et al. (2014, 2015) are indispensable for any generalization from highly monitored to unmonitored places, underpinned by general theories.@en

Increasingly the competition for water between food production and the environment threatens the viability of agricultural communities. This paper focused on this water-food-environment nexus in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia, and how it contributed to the evolution of the regional economy and changing demographic patterns. Paradoxically, against expectations, changes in water management favouring the environment coincided with falling unemployment and increase in average regional income, despite a decline in agriculture. To understand this, and to explore how the competition for water played out in the Murrumbidgee Basin, we develop and use a socio-hydrologic model that explicitly considers bi-directional feedbacks between human and water systems. The modelling shows that in response to widespread ecosystem degradation, community sentiment forced new water management policies that favoured ecosystems which inevitably led to reductions in agriculture production. In response, the basin economy reorganized through sectoral transformation to the manufacturing and service sectors, improved agricultural practices, and out-migration of basin residents. The sectoral transformation was facilitated by capital available for investment in manufacturing and service sectors with knock-on impacts on population dynamics and unemployment. Collectively these contributed to a sustainable transformation of the basin economy. The study shows how transformation of the basin economy and demographics mitigated potentially adverse economic outcomes and enabled society to cope with water management decisions that favoured the environment. The dynamics outlined here highlight the adaptive capacity of people and movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding, to cope with water stress.@en