Reducing packaging waste is a pressing challenge requiring organisations to look beyond their own products, services and business models and take an ecosystem approach. Collaborative efforts in circular ecosystems offer a promising solution to tackle this issue. However, the impact of circular ecosystems on material flows in the packaging system, particularly considering uncertain actor behavior, remains unknown. This thesis aims to address this research gap by studying the dynamics of packaging waste in a circular food packaging ecosystem in the Netherlands.

Using a complex adaptive socio-technical systems approach, the research combines a systematic literature review and a case study with interviews to develop an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM incorporates three types of agents representing food producers, packaging producers, and waste treaters, who can form circular ecosystems focused on closed-loop recycling. Organisational decision-making theory is integrated into the ABM to account for actor behavior, considering different decision-styles and decision-rules.

The ABM explores the effect of multiple variables on packaging waste dynamics in circular ecosystems. Results indicate that circular ecosystems can be established with only a few actors prioritising circularity over individual profit, leading to significant reductions in packaging waste. The decision-style of the food producer plays a crucial role in ecosystems dominated by actors prioritising individual profit. However, availability and sharing of information on recycled material volumes and content are critical for circular ecosystems to emerge.

Circular ecosystems may face limitations due to recycled material shortages, leading to fluctuations in recycled content. Centralised waste treatment can stabilise recycled material supply and, subsequently, recycled content in packaging. Technological innovations hold potential for increasing recycled content and recycling rates, but additional changes in actor behavior and material prices are needed to utilise this potential. On top of that, other high-level circularity strategies should be employed to overcome limitations related to material shortage. Using recycled material could be incentivised through subsidies or taxes on raw materials, but the effectiveness of such measures will depend on the decision-making of the packaging producers.

The discussion reflects on the results, the ABM, and the overall research, identifying limitations and implications and suggesting future research directions. Further refinements to the ABM can enhance its accuracy and suitability for analysing circular ecosystems for waste reduction.

In conclusion, this research sheds light on the dynamics of packaging waste in a circular food packaging ecosystem in the Netherlands, considering actor behavior. The ABM provides a valuable analytical tool for studying circular ecosystems and their potential in the food packaging industry. By emphasizing actor collaboration, circular packaging ecosystems offer a pathway to a more sustainable food packaging industry.