In this paper, a physics of failure-based prediction method is combined with statistical models to consider the impact of current crowding and current droop effects on the reliability of LED arrays. Electronic-thermal models of LEDs are utilized to obtain the operation conditions under the influences of current crowding and current droop. A Markov chain-based model is used to calculate the probability distribution of each failure mode, including the lumen decay and catastrophic failure. Two types of LEDs were selected for a numerical study. The proposed prediction method provides the realistic reliability prediction results. It is found that the properties of LEDs have a great impact on their hazard rates of LED arrays. The equivalent resistance, third-order non-radiative coefficient, and radiative coefficient of LEDs are critical to the reliability of an LED array.