Global tide and surge models play a major role in forecasting coastal flooding due to extreme events or climate change. The model performance is strongly affected by parameters such as bathymetry and bottom friction. In this study, we propose a method that estimates bathymetry globally and the bottom friction coefficient in shallow waters for a global tide and surge model (GTSMv4.1). However, the estimation effect is limited by the scarcity of available tide gauges. We propose complementing sparse tide gauges with tide time series generated using FES2014. The FES2014 dataset outperforms the GTSM in most areas and is used as observations for the deep ocean and some coastal areas, such as Hudson Bay and Labrador, where tide gauges are scarce but energy dissipation is large. The experiment is performed with a computation- and memory-efficient iterative parameter estimation scheme (time–POD-based coarse incremental parameter estimation; POD: proper orthogonal decomposition) applied to the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSMv4.1). Estimation results show that model performance is significantly improved for the deep ocean and shallow waters, especially in the European shelf, directly using the CMEMS tide gauge data in the estimation. The GTSM is also validated by comparing to tide gauges from UHSLC, CMEMS, and some Arctic stations in the year 2014.@en

Coastal flooding is threatening the personal safety, property, and social development of the low-lying land around the coast worldwide. Stormsurge is one of the main sources of coastal flooding. Tide and surge models can provide timely water level forecasts for coastal management with the early warning of flooding. Although a regional model can be used to study effects of climate change in a specific area, global water level modeling provides some advantages, such as the long-term response of the extreme sea level and coastal flooding due to global warming and comparison of global surge differences between regions. Global hydrodynamic modeling is becoming an increasingly important research topic. Nowadays, with ever increasing resolution, neglected physical processes and parameter uncertainties due to the inaccurate input or empirical values is becoming more and more dominating the model accuracy. At the same time, measurements like the satellite altimeter and the in-situ tide gauges are able to monitor the water level changes, which offers the possibility to estimate uncertain parameters. In this thesis, we develop a parameter estimation scheme and implement it to a global tide and surge model, and subsequently, apply to improve the water level forecast skill. Themain challenges for large-scale parameter assimilation for tide models are in assessing parameter uncertainties, large computational demand, large memory requirement and insufficient observations. In this thesis, we explore these challenges using an application to the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM). A computationally efficient and low memory usage iterative estimation scheme is designed and applied to GTSM for bathymetry and bottomfriction coefficient calibration. In addition, we study how to make the best use of spatial sparse distributed observations...@en

Accurate parameter estimation for the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) benefits from observations with long time-series. However, increasing the number of measurements leads to a large computation demand and increased memory requirements, especially for the ensemble-based methods that assimilate the measurements at one batch. In this study, a memory-efficient parameter estimation scheme using model order reduction in time patterns is developed for a high-resolution global tide model. We propose using projection onto empirical time-patterns to reduce the model output time-series to a much smaller linear subspace. Then, to further improve the estimation accuracy, we introduce an outer-loop, similar to Incremental 4D-VAR, to evaluate model-increments at a lower resolution and subsequently reduce the computational cost. The inner-loop optimizes parameters using the lower-resolution model and an iterative least-squares estimation algorithm called DUD. The outer-loop updates the initial output from the high-resolution model with updated parameters from the converged inner-loop and then restarts the inner-loop. We performed experiments to adjust the bathymetry with observations from the FES2014 dataset. Results show that the time patterns of the tide series can be successfully projected to a lower dimensional subspace, and memory requirements are reduced by a factor of 22 for our experiments. The estimation is converged after three outer iterations in our experiment, and tide representation is significantly improved, achieving a 34.5% reduction of error. The model's improvement is not only shown for the calibration dataset, but also for several validation datasets consisting of one year of time-series from FES2014 and UHSLC tide gauges.

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When calibrating simulations of dust clouds, both the intensity and the position are important. Intensity errors arise mainly from uncertain emission and sedimentation strengths, while position errors are attributed either to imperfect emission timing or to uncertainties in the transport. Though many studies have been conducted on the calibration or correction of dust simulations, most of these focus on intensity solely and leave the position errors mainly unchanged. In this paper, a grid-distorted data assimilation, which consists of an image-morphing method and an ensemble-based variational assimilation, is designed for realigning a simulated dust plume to correct the position error. This newly developed grid-distorted data assimilation has been applied to a dust storm event in May 2017 over East Asia. Results have been compared for three configurations: a traditional assimilation configuration that focuses solely on intensity correction, a grid-distorted data assimilation that focuses on position correction only and the hybrid assimilation that combines these two. For the evaluated case, the position misfit in the simulations is shown to be dominant in the results. The traditional emission inversion only slightly improves the dust simulation, while the grid-distorted data assimilation effectively improves the dust simulation and forecasting. The hybrid assimilation that corrects both position and intensity of the dust load provides the best initial condition for forecasting of dust concentrations.@en

In this study, a computation-efficient parameter estimation scheme for high-resolution global tide models is developed. The method is applied to Global Tide and Surge Model with an unstructured grid with a resolution of about 2.5 km in the coastal area and about 4.9 million cells. The estimation algorithm uses an iterative least squares method, known as DUD. We use time-series derived from the FES2014 tidal database in deep water as observations to estimate corrections to the bathymetry. Although the model and estimation algorithm run in parallel, directly applying of DUD would not be affordable computationally. To reduce the computational demand, a coarse-to-fine strategy is proposed by using output from a coarser model to replace the fine model. There are two approaches; One is completely replacing the fine model with a coarser model during calibration (Coarse Calibration) and the second is Coarse Incremental Calibration, that replaces the output increments between the initial model and model with modified parameters by coarser grid model simulations. To further reduce the computation time, the parameter dimension is reduced from O(10⁶) to O(10²) based on sensitivity analysis, which greatly reduces the required number of model simulations and storage. In combination, these methods form an efficient optimization strategy. Experiments show that the accuracy of the tidal representation can be improved significantly at affordable cost. Validation for other time-periods and using coastal tide-gauges shows that the accuracy is improved significantly. However, the calibration period of two weeks is short and leads to some over-fitting of the model.

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Previous studies are mainly limited to temperature and salinity (T/S) profiling data assimilation, while data assimilation based on Argo float trajectory information has received less research focus. In this study, a new method was proposed to assimilate Argo trajectory data: The middepth (indicates the parking depth of Argo floats in this study, ~1200 m) velocities are estimated from Argo trajectories and subsequently assimilated into the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) using four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) method. This method can avoid a complicated float trajectory model in direct position assimilation. The 2-month assimilation experiments in South China Sea (SCS) showed that this proposed method can effectively assimilate Argo trajectory information into the model and improve middepth velocity field by adjusting the unbalanced component in the velocity increments. The assimilation of the Argo trajectory-derived middepth velocity with other observations (satellite observations and T/S profiling data) together yielded the best performance, and the velocity fields at the float parking depth are more consistent with the Argo float trajectories. In addition, this method will not decrease the assimilation performance of other observations [i.e., sea level anomaly (SLA), sea surface temperature (SST), and T/S profiles], which is indicative of compatibility with other observations in the 4DVAR assimilation system.

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