Cities are so complex that we constantly build models to represent them, understand them and attempt to plan them. Models represent a middle ground between the singular configurations of cities and universal theories. This is what makes them valuable and prone to circulate (between places, institutions and languages) and evolve to adapt to new ideas, local conditions and/or other models. When it comes to analytical urban models (i.e. analytical representations of cities developed to study or simulate part of their structure or dynamics), there is a lack of academic understanding regarding how context and circulation affect their content, use and interpretation. What happens to analytical urban models and their reception during their circulation across geographical and disciplinary boundaries? How have different academic disciplines interacted with, contributed to and been influenced by analytical urban models? What are the consequences of urban models’ mobility for our understanding of cities? In this article, we employ the policy mobilities framework to analyse the circulation of analytical urban models. We use six canonical models as case studies to determine how their assumptions came about and how these models have circulated across different domains of policy and application by using biographical information and model analysis. The first contribution of the article is to demonstrate by example that our hypothesis regarding the influence of context is consistent. We also show that highly transferable/mobile models share common characteristics relating to contingent factors such as their creators’ biographies, institutional context and the traditional markers of power relations.@en

In 1969 Thomas C. Schelling published his paper “Models of Segregation” and in 1971 he published a follow-up paper introducing “Dynamic Models of Segregation”. Schelling's papers developed the theoretical models of interactive dynamics of individual residential choices, resulting in pronounced patterns of residential segregation at the city level. Even after 50+ years, the topic of residential segregation and sorting remains as relevant as when Schelling published his papers. The two Schelling papers have been cited more than 8000 times together, and have made a strong impact on the residential segregation literature and beyond. In this paper, we examine how Schelling's ideas have impacted empirical research on residential segregation, and thus contributed to a greater understanding of urban processes. We find that few empirical papers explicitly test the Schelling models in residential segregation studies, and there are a growing number of influential papers in the field of segregation that do not reference Schelling. However, the papers by Schelling have served as a source of inspiration for a diverse set of empirical studies, new ways of defining neighbourhoods and developing more comprehensive theories of segregation.

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This study examines how socio-spatial inequalities are associated with population concentration and de-concentration processes shaped by residential mobility. The study explores whether the patterns of residential mobility vary in different settlement system contexts. It reviews the cyclical urbanization models and the inequality of opportunities they provide in urban, suburban, and counter-urban contexts for individuals in various life stages. The theoretical models are tested by analysing individual-level data covering the entire populations of Estonia and Lithuania – two countries with similar social but different settlement system contexts. The study utilizes linked individual-level data from the 2011 and 2021 censuses, and harmonized variables in the two countries. The results show that individuals engaging in concentration, suburbanization, or de-concentration have distinct characteristics, with little differences between countries characterized with different settlement systems. While the life-course approach assumes that young people are most likely to urbanize (concentrate), those in family ages shift towards suburbanization, and older individuals tend to counter-urbanize (de-concentrate), our findings challenge these assumptions, demonstrating that young adults have a high likelihood of migration in all three directions. These findings call for more in-depth studies on the interplay between age and migration patterns that would go beyond the life-course approach and delve deeper into the residential decision-making of young people.@en

Informal urbanism has been generally studied within social, econmic and political frameworks, yet little is known of how it performs in terms of urban vitality. The aim of this article is to better understand the urban vitality of informal settlements and how they can be improved by using a combined morphological approach that encompasses street-network accessibility, building density, land use diversity and transformability index. This study focuses on the city of Cairo, which has experienced rapid urban growth over the last seven decades. Much of this growth has concentrated in informal settlements on the outskirts of the metropolis. Taking Manshiet Nasser district as a case, we measured the degree of urban vitality of the area through a combination of Space Syntax, Spacematrix, and the Mixed Use Index (MXI). Informed by a transformability index (TI), the results can be used as part of the design process to (re)develop unattractive areas. The findings show that this combined approach works as a diagnostic tool for detecting development potential and, therefore, underpins the identification of cost-effective ways of intervention, for enhancing vibrant urban environments.

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This open access book investigates the link between income inequality and socio-economic residential segregation in 24 large urban regions in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. It offers a unique global overview of segregation trends based on case studies by local author teams. The book shows important global trends in segregation, and proposes a Global Segregation Thesis.

Rising inequalities lead to rising levels of socio-economic segregation almost everywhere in the world. Levels of inequality and segregation are higher in cities in lower income countries, but the growth in inequality and segregation is faster in cities in high-income countries. This is causing convergence of segregation trends. Professionalisation of the workforce is leading to changing residential patterns. High-income workers are moving to city centres or to attractive coastal areas and gated communities, while poverty is increasingly suburbanising. As a result, the urban geography of inequality changes faster and is more pronounced than changes in segregation levels. Rising levels of inequality and segregation pose huge challenges for the future social sustainability of cities, as cities are no longer places of opportunities for all.@en

The book “Urban Socio-Economic Segregation and Income Inequality: a Global Perspective” investigates the link between income inequality and residential segregation between socio-economic groups in 24 large cities and their urban regions in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. Author teams with in-depth local knowledge provide an extensive analysis of each case study city. Based on their findings, the main results of the book can be summarised as follows. Rising inequalities lead to rising levels of socio-economic segregation almost everywhere in the world. Levels of inequality and segregation are higher in cities in lower income countries, but the growth in inequality and segregation is faster in cities in high-income countries, which leads to a convergence of global trends. In many cities the workforce is professionalising, with an increasing share of the top socio-economic groups. In most cities the high-income workers are moving to the centre or to attractive coastal areas, and low-income workers are moving to the edges of the urban region. In some cities, mainly in lower income countries, high-income workers are also concentrating in out-of-centre enclaves or gated communities. The urban geography of inequality changes faster and is more pronounced than city-wide single-number segregation indices reveal. Taken together, these findings have resulted in the formulation of a Global Segregation Thesis.@en

Like many other Central and Eastern European countries Lithuania has been experiencing significant socio-spatial transformations since the 1990s. One of the most prominent of these transformations is associated with the residential suburbanization of its major cities. The suburbs are the only areas in Lithuania where the population has been growing in recent decades, while the country has lost almost one quarter of its population. Although, extensive urban growth is a common feature for all large Lithuanian cities, it is more noticeable in Vilnius. Due to its historical and geographical context, Vilnius, and the region surrounding it, is in an area where rural-urban transformation also means transformation of the social, ethnic, and political landscape. The aim of this article is to obtain more insight into the recent process of the fast, but weakly controlled, residential suburbanization of Vilnius. The focus is on understanding the scale of suburbanization and its impact on the social and physical environment. In this study, we use quantitative data on population and residential constructions as well as presenting some visual material. Our results show that the new suburban-style settlements are spatially dispersed. New residential areas have emerged within the city limits, along its administrative boundary as well as in the most peripheral parts of the Vilnius metropolitan region. In terms of the morphology and physiognomy, a great suburban diversity exists in and around Vilnius, and different building styles are mixed creating a rather chaotic landscape, with little interference from urban planners and no clear vision for the future.@en

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – the three Baltic States – have experienced radical changes in their socio-spatial organization due to the transition from the Soviet regime to market-led neo-liberal economies in the 1990s. Since then the general trend in the Baltic States is population concentration in the capital city regions and shrinkage beyond them. The main focus of this study is on the (changing) dominance of the capital city regions. The aim of the present paper is two-fold. Firstly, it attempts to determine the long-term urban dynamics. Therefore, we test how well the existing theoretical models reflect the urban dynamics in the Baltic States and we invite to connect post-socialist cities in advancing these models forward. Secondly, this paper investigates the current state of urban development of three Baltic countries with the aim to better understand the role of the capital cities in the population redistribution in the context of population decline, urbanization and selective migration. Therefore, we analyse the patterns of internal migration to obtain more insight into the (changing) dominance of the capital cities in the settlement systems. This paper investigates weather the capital cities are the “winners” who concentrate younger and higher educated residents at the same time pushing away older and less educated residents. Or maybe the capital cities act as the distributors of the “successful” people to other locations within the countries? This is the first comparative Baltic study on urban and population change, which explores the patterns of internal migration using individual level census data.les.@en

This study is focused on Soviet housing estates in Vilnius. The aim of the chapter is to gain more insight into the social and ethnic profile of the residents and to highlight the trajectories of change. The analysis is based on Lithuanian census data from 2001 to 2011. Results suggest that although Soviet housing estates are less segregated than other parts of Vilnius, considerable socio-economic differences exist among residents belonging to different ethnic groups. Soviet housing estates are definitely not the most attractive residential areas, and more affluent groups increasingly prioritise residing in other parts of the city. However, that has not turned them into the neighbourhoods with the highest concentration of the least affluent population. Thus, the Soviet housing estates maintain a rather neutral position in the current residential structure of Vilnius.

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While experiencing one of the most extreme population declines in the world, quite many infants are born to teenage mothers in Lithuania. Adolescent fertility rate (AFR) in Lithuania is up to four times higher compared to the Northern and Western European countries. However, there is a great regional differentiation of AFR on the low spatial level in the country, where this rate is significantly higher in the peripheral rural regions, but such phenomenon is almost absent in the major cities. The aim of our research is to investigate the regional differentiation of AFR in Lithuania and to identify individual as well as regional characteristics determining it. This study uses individual-level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. First, we analyse the patterns of regional differentiation of AFR over time at the detailed spatial level. Second, we use binary logistic regression modelling to gain an understanding of which individual characteristics and the attributes of the socio-economic environment contributes most to the increased likelihood of childbirth in adolescence. Our primary results show that individual characteristics play much bigger role than socio-economic environment. The results therefore also suggest that the role of sexual education must be strengthened. The research is funded from the project “Spatial differentiation of adolescent fertility in Lithuania: socioeconomic environment, the role of sexual education and individual experiences” (financed by the Lithuanian Research Council, contract No. S-MIP-17-115).@en

This paper analyses the development of city systems in the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). These countries have experienced a shift from the relatively isolated realm of the Soviet Union to the European Union, one of the most liberal economies in the world. The aim of this paper is to analyse how the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-led economy influenced how the city systems changed. The study uses annual data on the population dynamics of the cities from 1989–2015. Zipf’s law serves as a reference point to explore and compare the city-size distribution as well as the regularity and stability of this distribution in the Baltic States. A linear regression is employed to determine the impact of relevant factors that lead to city system change under market economy conditions. The results show that although the current paths of development are different in the Baltic States, the countries illustrate similar trends towards metropolisation and spatial polarisation. The results of this research suggest that spatially uneven development will continue in the Baltic States, and regional development policies should be aligned with the ongoing trends. The findings of the research encourage the development of greater cooperation between the Baltic States in creating regional policies, in particular those related to their shrinking cities and regions.@en

Since the 1990s Lithuania’s geopolitical and economic position has radically shifted from being a relatively affluent and prosperous region in the Soviet Union to a relatively poor country on the periphery of the European Union. The transition period was accompanied by a sharp population decline, which makes Lithuania one of the fastest shrinking countries in the world today. Furthermore, in the socialist period, planning policy focused on decentralisation and sought to limit the growth of the major Lithuanian cities. Now most of the economic growth and demographic potential is concentrated in a few metropolitan regions, particularly in Vilnius. Extreme population decline and uneven spatial development can be seen as a threat to the economic and social stability of Lithuania. The aim of this thesis is to gain more insight into the recent socio-spatial transformation processes and their consequences in Lithuania. This thesis investigates the main features and drivers of socio-spatial change. It shows why we should be concerned, despite the growing economy and improvements in the standard of living, as Lithuania is facing major challenges related to extreme population decline and increasing socio-spatial inequality. The results of this study provide a better understanding of the development processes and reveal how the Soviet-designed socio-spatial structures adapted to a market economy environment.@en

Since the 1990s, Lithuania lost almost one-quarter of its population, and some regions within the country lost more than 50% of their residents. Such a sharp population decline poses major challenges to politicians, policy-makers and planners. The aim of this study is to obtain more insight into the recent processes of socio-spatial change and the role of selective migration in Lithuania. The main focus is on understanding who lives in those regions which are rapidly losing population, and who is most likely to leave these regions. This is one of the first studies to use individual-level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. We found that low socio-economic status residents and older residents dominate the population of shrinking regions, and unsurprisingly that the most ‘successful’ people are the most likely to leave such regions. This process of selective migration reinforces the negative downward spiral of declining regions. As a result, socio-spatial polarization is growing within the country, where people with higher socio-economic status are increasingly overrepresented in the largest city-regions, while the elderly and residents with a lower socio-economic status are overrepresented in declining rural regions. This paper provides empirical evidence of selective migration and increasing regional disparities in Lithuania. While the socio-spatial changes are obvious in Lithuania, there is no clear strategy on how to cope with extreme population decline and increasing regional inequalities within the country.@en

Since the 1990s, Lithuania lost almost a quarter of its population, and some regions within the country lost more than 50% of their residents. Such a sharp population decline poses major challenges to politicians, policy makers and planners. This study aims to get more insight into the recent processes of socio-spatial change and the role of selective migration in Lithuania. The main focus is on understanding who lives in those regions which are rapidly losing population, and who is most likely to leave these regions. This is one of the first studies to use individual level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. We found that low socio-economic status residents and older residents dominate the population of shrinking regions, and unsurprisingly we found that the most “successful” people are the most likely to leave such regions. This process of selective migration reinforces the negative downward spiral of declining regions. As a result, socio-spatial polarisation is growing within the country, where people with higher socio-economic status are increasingly overrepresented in the largest city-regions, while the elderly and residents with a lower socioeconomic status are overrepresented in declining rural regions. This paper provides empirical evidence of selective migration and increasing regional disparities in Lithuania. While the socio-spatial changes are obvious in Lithuania, there is no clear strategy on how to cope with extreme population decline and increasing regional inequalities within the country.@en

Shrinking populations have been gaining increasing attention, especially in postsocialist Eastern and Central European countries. While most studies focus on specific cities and regions, much less is known about the spatial dimension of population decline on the national level and the local factors determining spatially uneven population change. This study uses Lithuanian census data from the years 2001 to 2011 to get insight into the geography of population change for the whole country. Lithuania has experienced one of the highest rates of population decline in the world in the last decades. The predictive models show that regional factors have a strong effect on the variation in population change throughout the country but also reveal that sociodemographic and economic area characteristics play a role in the process of decline. Our results give little hope to those who would like to reverse the ongoing trends of population change and emphasize the need for spatial planning to cope with the changes. This is an approach which currently does not exist in practice in Lithuania.@en