The COVID-19 pandemic has changed travel behaviour and mobility in the Netherlands. It is questioned if the mobility system is subject to long-lasting change in the near and distant future. This study aims to observe the development of mobility impacts over time with a quantitative approach.

Current traditional transport models have difficulties implementing uncertainties such as the mobility disruptions of COVID-19. These models lack the exploratory nature to cope with quickly arising events and changes. Using system dynamics, a model is developed to observe the mobility impacts of disruption and trends in transportation. The developed model and alternative transport modelling approach are tested and validated by applying the case of the COVID-19 mobility disruptions in the Netherlands. By including a tele-activity alternative in the mode choice component of the model, an option not to travel is modelled as a contender to the traditional modes of transport using choice models.

Subsequently, applying the model to the COVID-19 situation provided insight into new relations and understandings of the development of the mobility impacts over time in the near and distant future. It was found that the future attractiveness of modes of transport changes as a result. Travellers' preference for private modes of transport will remain high in the forthcoming years, causing public transportation to recover slowly. It can be concluded that the system dynamics modelling approach is beneficial and has accomplished the design of a model widely applicable to COVID-19 and other mobility disruptions.