Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (E_p) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (E_p/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to precipitation, and thereby strongly underestimate the effects of precipitation on runoff. To resolve this shortcoming, we provide an improved Budyko-based global assessment of the relative and absolute sensitivity of precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors to changes in mean-annual runoff. The absolute elasticity of runoff to potential evaporation changes is always lower than the elasticity to precipitation changes. The global pattern indicates that for 83% of the land grid cells runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. This dominant role of precipitation contradicts previous global assessments, which considered the impacts of aridity changes as a ratio. We highlight that dryland regions generally display high absolute sensitivities of runoff to changes in precipitation, however within dryland regions the relative sensitivity of runoff to changes in other factors (e.g., changing climatic variability, CO₂-vegetation feedbacks, and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale, surface water resources are most sensitive to temporal changes in precipitation.

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Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this varies across regions. Here, we resolve shortcomings of previous Budyko-based global assessments on the relative role of aridity for changes in water availability. We argue that previous assessments do not properly account for precipitation effects. To resolve this issue, the effects of changes in Ep and P need to be considered separately. We present a new global assessment of the elasticity of runoff to changes in precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors. The global pattern suggests that for 83% of the land surface runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. Runoff elasticity to changes in potential evaporation is always lower than elasticity to precipitation, and in many arid regions this difference can reach an order of magnitude. Although surface water resources in dryland regions are highly sensitive to precipitation changes, their sensitivity to changes in other factors (e.g. changing climatic variability, CO2 – vegetation feedbacks and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale we find precipitation changes have the greatest impact on water availability, which contrasts markedly with recent assessments.@en

River flooding can have severe societal, economic and environmental consequences. However, limited understanding of the regional differences in flood-generating mechanisms results in poorly understood historical flood trends and uncertain predictions of future flood conditions. To address this issue, we use a simple observation-based approach to decipher the dominant drivers of floods across large geographic regions. The generated process knowledge provides helpful context of the mechanisms that are of main interest when studying the (non)stationarity of flood response. Such assessments of floods trends across large regions always focus on frequently occurring events (e.g. annual peaks), whereas changes in very extreme but rare floods are only studied for a small number of locations that have exceptionally long observational records. Understanding changes in these extreme and rare floods is especially relevant as these events are often most damaging. Utilizing aggregate regional flood information, we show that during recent decades there is a strong decadal variability and an overall increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods across multiple continents. This observation-based assessment of extreme floods is broadly consistent with model predictions, but also highlights strong decadal variability. Because we mapped regional differences in flood generating mechanisms of more commonly occurring floods, there remains a need to identify the regional and hemispheric drivers that control changes in extreme floods.@en

Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this varies across regions. Here, we resolve shortcomings of previous Budyko-based global assessments on the relative role of aridity for changes in water availability. We argue that previous assessments do not properly account for precipitation effects. To resolve this issue, the effects of changes in Ep and P need to be considered separately. We present a new global assessment of the elasticity of runoff to changes in precipitation, potential evaporation, and other factors. The global pattern suggests that for 83% of the land surface runoff is most sensitive to precipitation changes, while other factors dominate for the remaining 17%. Runoff elasticity to changes in potential evaporation is always lower than elasticity to precipitation, and in many arid regions this difference can reach an order of magnitude. Although surface water resources in dryland regions are highly sensitive to precipitation changes, their sensitivity to changes in other factors (e.g. changing climatic variability, CO2 – vegetation feedbacks and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape) is often far higher. Nonetheless, at the global scale we find precipitation changes have the greatest impact on water availability, which contrasts markedly with recent assessments.@en

Analyses of trends in observed floods often focus on relatively frequent events, whereas changes in rare floods are only studied for a small number of locations that have exceptionally long observational records. Understanding changes in rare floods is especially relevant as these events are often most damaging and influence the design of major structures. Here we provide an assessment of changes in the largest flood events (∼0.033 annual exceedance probability) observed during the period 1980-2009 for 1744 catchments located in Australia, Brazil, Europe and the United States. The occurrence of rare floods in spatial aggregate shows strong decadal variability and peaked around 1995. During the 30-year period there are overall increases in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. These currently unattributed increases are strongest in Europe and the United States, and weakest in Brazil
and Australia.@en

Fibre optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) is widely applied in Earth sciences. Many applications require a spatial resolution higher than that provided by the DTS instrument. Measurements at these higher resolutions can be achieved with a fibre optic cable helically wrapped on a cylinder. The effect of the probe construction, such as its material, shape, and diameter, on the performance has been poorly understood. In this article, we study data sets obtained from a laboratory experiment using different cable and construction diameters, and three field experiments using different construction characteristics. This study shows that the construction material, shape, diameter, and cable attachment method can have a significant influence on DTS temperature measurements. We present a qualitative and quantitative approximation of errors introduced through the choice of auxiliary construction, influence of solar radiation, coil diameter, and cable attachment method. Our results provide insight into factors that influence DTS measurements, and we present a number of solutions to minimize these errors. These practical considerations allow designers of future DTS measurement set-ups to improve their environmental temperature measurements.@en

Over the past ten years, Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) has been applied for monitoring many different environmental processes, from groundwater movement, to seepage into streams and canals, to soil moisture, and internal waves in lakes. DTS uses optical fibres, along which temperatures are determined by measuring Raman shifts in light that scatters back after a laser pulse has been sent into the fiber. Over the past decade, performance of DTS equipment has dramatically improved. It is now possible to determine fiber temperatures with 0.05 K accuracy, for each 25 cm along a fiber optic cable. With typical spatial resolutions of 1 m, cable lengths can run up to 5 km. Accuracy improves with integration over longer sampling intervals, but measurements over 60 s can give 0.1 K accuracy with proper in-field calibration. DTS can also be used for atmospheric properties such as air temperature, vapor pressure, and wind speed. This presentation provides a complete overview of recent advances in atmospheric DTS observations. Air temperature is the simplest, as one simply has to suspend a fiber optic cable along the profile of interest. This can be from a balloon or along poles. Care has to be taken to correct for radiative heating of the cable. Using a thin white cable minimalizes radiative effects and normally brings the measured temperature to within 1 K of actual air temperature, sufficient for studies on effects of shading in natural and urban landscapes. It is also possible to correct for radiative heating by modeling in some detail the cable’s thermal behavior or by using two cables of different diameters. Supporting structures may also have an effect on cable temperatures, which should be minimized or corrected for. Water vapor can be measured by comparing the temperatures of wet and dry cables. These wet and dry bulb temperatures allow derivation of humidity profiles, which, in turn, allows for Bowen-ratio type of calculations of latent and sensible heat fluxes. This has proven especially useful in otherwise difficult to measure profiles such as through forest canopies. Wind speed can be measured by including a conductive element in the fiber optic cable and heating the cable actively by sending a current through that element. In effect, the cable then acts as a hot wire anemometer but then over long lengths of cable and with high spatial resolutions. When carefully executed, experiments with heated cables give very detailed insight into turbulent processes in the lower boundary. It is even possible to resolve bigger individual turbulent and sub-meso-scale eddies for studying fast evolving fluid flows (orders of seconds). A comprehensive overview of atmospheric applications will be presented, together with pitfalls, common errors, and practical tips to avoid those in the field. @en

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the European Geosciences Union (EGU) play central roles in nurturing the next generation of geoscientists. Students and young scientists make up about one quarter of the unions’ active memberships [American Geophysical Union, 2013; European Geosciences Union, 2014], creating a major opportunity to include a new generation of geoscientists as more active contributors to the organizations’ activities, rather than merely as consumers.@en